Energy
444,000 semi-loads of food? Just another day on planet Earth

From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy
By Terry Etam
At 100 million b/d, the world consumes a billion barrels of oil every ten days. Eleven billion barrels of recoverable reserves will meet the world’s needs for about 110 days, or just under four months. And global demand continues to grow.
The scope of this discussion goes far beyond oil demand. It is imperative that people understand energy demand, and particularly so on a global scale.
A friend of mine, always with a keen eye on interesting things, passed on an interesting quote from the CERA Week energy conference the other week. The head of the International Energy Forum mentioned a surprising statistic, as quoted by Javier Blas on Twitter: “Heathrow airport in London uses more energy than the whole African nation of Sierra Leone [population ~8.5 million].” Yikes!
Here’s another one that turned up randomly in the feed by a credible source: “If we keep growing our energy usage (2.9% CAGR last 350 years) we will use more energy in the next 25 years than in all prior human history. 3x in 39 years and 9x by the end of the century.”
Energy is an amazing topic, both sources and uses. The sheer scale of what we require for our present lifestyle is mind-blowing when placed in concrete contexts like above. In the abstract, the numbers don’t mean anything. The world consumes over 100 million barrels of oil per day. So what? Is that a lot? Sure it’s a big number but so is 8 billion people. Either stat is hard to wrap one’s head around.
Consider the following with respect to oil consumption/production: ExxonMobil made waves recently for a large oil discovery offshore Guyana, in an era when there aren’t that many discoveries being made (the flip side of the demand for oil/gas companies to return money to shareholders means exploration generally takes a back seat). Reuters picked up the story: ExxonMobil announced a new discovery, one of 30 since 2015, in a 6.6 million acre area that to date has been found to hold 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil, which also equals the country’s total. The results are significant, moving Guyana up to 17th on the world’s petroleum reserve rankings, similar to Norway, Brazil, or Algeria.
Now compare that number to consumption. At 100 million b/d, the world consumes a billion barrels of oil every ten days. Eleven billion barrels of recoverable reserves will meet the world’s needs for about 110 days, or just under four months. And global demand continues to grow.
The scope of this discussion goes far beyond oil demand. It is imperative that people understand energy demand, and particularly so on a global scale.
Look at this history of global energy consumption chart from Our World in Data:
It’s nuts. But it coincides very well with the rising standard of living attained by humanity, particularly in the west, an increase the rest of the world wants to emulate.
Consider the following statistics if you think that trajectory is going to slow down or reverse any time soon.
Africa has about 1.2 billion people, or roughly 15 percent of the earth’s population. Yet Africa accounts for 2 percent of global air traffic. By contrast, Europe has a population of about 740 million, and accounts for 31 percent of global air traffic.
What if Africans decide they want to live like Europeans, air-travel-wise, which is not just justified on moral grounds but actually more functionally logical, because Europe covers only 1/3 of Africa’s size of 30 million square kilometres?
What if the rest of the world wants to enjoy air conditioning to the extent the US does (and why on earth wouldn’t they)? According to the US Energy Information Agency, nearly 90 percent of US households use air conditioning, and virtually every office building does as well. The US has about 130 million households for 330 million people, or about 2.5 people per household. If Africa had a similar ratio, they would have 480,000,000 households, and if a similar proportion had AC there would be 430,000,000 households with AC. It’s safe to say that today in Africa the number of households with AC is far closer to zero than 90 percent. (Even communists/hardcore socialists support near-universal air conditioning, though they call it a ‘right’ by way of that fuzzy but firm ‘gimme that’ appropriation way of theirs.)
Now add in India, with another 1.4 billion people, and do the same math. A billion air conditioners worth of global demand is not a ridiculous estimate, not when considering Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, parts of South America… in addition to Africa, India…
Consider even food, and the logistical magnum opus required to keep countries food-riot-free. A typical western website says that the average person consumes 3-4 pounds of food per day. Let’s say the rest of the world isn’t so lucky, and we’ll call it 2.5 pounds per day for a global average (each new cruise ship drags the world average up considerably). There are 8 billion of us schlepping around planet earth. A semi trailer can carry about 45,000 pounds of cargo. So every day, the equivalent of about 444,000 semis full of food are forklifted out of trucks and down the gullets of 8 billion upturned mouths. Every freaking day, without a break.
And that’s just food. What about IKEA. And Costco. And Home Depot. And Walmart. And all the other stuff in our world.
And billions more people are striving to fill up the SUV (yes, everywhere you go, SUV) at their local Costco/Home Depot/Walmart, as soon as one arrives in their community.
Ah hell, I give up. The scale of all this stuff is unfathomable. And yet it all gets where it needs to go, every day, as long as there’s energy.
Any singular household staple must be there, in abundance, or all hell breaks loose. Remember Covid > toilet paper? What happens as soon as there is even a rumour of a shortage? Social deviants, which are harder to eradicate than (and just as useful as) STDs, get into gear and begin hoarding in order to resell at a profit. It just happens, one of the unfortunate costs of living in a free society. (I’m not suggesting that those people should be found and beaten with a tire iron, but then again I’m not suggesting that they shouldn’t.)
When we think of energy consumption, we tend to think of our hilariously comfortable lives in western nations, where supermarkets are perpetually full, where gasoline and heating fuels are available 24/7/365 at reasonable prices, where flying wherever and whenever we want, with minimal hassle, is one step away from being viewed as a human right. We are correct in that our energy consumption per capita in the west is very high. But on an outright total consumption basis, individual country statistics are pretty wild. And saddening, in some ways.
First the wild part: You would expect (or I did anyway) the US to be either at the top of the consumption pile or close; it is and has been an economic juggernaut for a century. But not even close: in 2022, the US consumed about 96 exajoules of energy, which is a lot – that number equals the consumption of India, Russia, Japan and Canada combined. But way out in front is China, with 2022 consumption of 159 exajoules. No one should be surprised China leads the world in renewables installation and coal fired power plant construction. They need it all.
Where it gets sad is to wander further down the list to the lowest consumers. The site linked above shows a graphic of the world, with each country colour-coded for total energy consumption. The lowest on the colour scale is a pale yellow representing 20 exajoules per year. The scale rises up through blues and towards a dark navy which represents China at the top of the heap.
Most African countries, and some South American ones, do not even warrant a definition in the legend at all, and are simply greyed out. They have so little energy consumption they hardly even make it onto the raw data table. Hundreds of millions of people live like that. But only as long as they have to.
It is very sobering to see how much of the world lives, and how very far they are from the West’s standard of living. The West’s leaders push the concept of ‘electrify everything’, a concept that only makes sense if one is looking no further than their backyard and has zero feel for the true global situation. In much of the world, they would just as happily get behind the slogan ‘electrify anything’.
It is hard to imagine this energy consumption trajectory falling; we’d be very lucky if it stayed flat. But that seems like an unrealistic hope. The developing world clearly has every incentive and right to advance towards the West’s standard of living, and if they get close global energy consumption will head off further into the stratosphere. Here in the West, we play cute little games like a forced switch to EVs, while ignoring almost totally any common sense commentary on the subject (For example, Toyota’s 1:6:90 rule which states that for the same amount of raw materials to manufacture one EV, Toyota can make six plug-in hybrids or 90 hybrids, and in doing so would achieve 37 times the emissions reduction of a single EV. Yet Toyota is scorned for such logic on the grounds that “Toyota’s reluctance to fully embrace EVs can hinder innovation in the EV industry.” Note that there is no challenge to the facts themselves, just a bruising of the ego of the think tanks.)
Anyone that provides energy of any kind should roll up their sleeves, there’s a lot of work to be done, and those who wish to hunt for energy villains will get run over, in due course.
Terry Etam is a columnist with the BOE Report, a leading energy industry newsletter based in Calgary. He is the author of The End of Fossil Fuel Insanity. You can watch his Policy on the Frontier session from May 5, 2022 here.
Energy
Ontario Leads the G7 by Building First Small Modular Reactor

A concept image of a GE Hitachi BWRX-300 small modular reactor (SMR), the nuclear technology Ontario Power Generation is using for its new project adjacent to the existing Darlington nuclear plant. (GE-Hitachi)
From Energy Now
Construction will create 18,000 Canadian jobs, add up to $500 million annually to Ontario’s economy and help secure clean, reliable energy
With electricity demand in Ontario set to soar by at least 75 per cent by 2050, the Ontario government has approved Ontario Power Generation’s (OPG) plan to begin construction on the first of four small modular reactors (SMRs) at the Darlington nuclear site. Once complete, this SMR will be the first of its kind in the G7, producing enough reliable, affordable and clean electricity to power the equivalent of 300,000 homes, supporting thousands of good-paying jobs across the province and helping secure Ontario’s energy supply for decades to come.
The construction of the four units will support the government’s plan to protect Ontario’s workers and economy by creating up to 18,000 Canadian jobs and injecting $500 million on average annually into Ontario’s economy. The construction, operation and maintenance of the four units will add $38.5 billion to Canada’s GDP over the next 65 years. The government has worked with OPG to ensure that 80 per cent of project spending goes to Ontario companies and that construction and operations will protect Ontario workers and jobs by sustaining an estimated 3,700 highly-skilled, good-paying jobs for the next 65 years.
“This is a historic day for Canada as we start construction on the first small modular reactor in the G7, creating 18,000 jobs for Canadians,” said Stephen Lecce, Minister of Energy and Mines. “This nation-building project being built right here in Ontario will be led by Canadian workers using Canadian steel, concrete and materials to help deliver the extraordinary amount of reliable and clean power we will need to deliver on our ambitious plan to protect Ontario and unleash our economy.”
The BWRX-300 is a small-scale nuclear reactor that uses commercially available uranium to generate power. The four SMRs will be vital to powering new homes, historic investments to build Ontario and fuel a thriving economy. Once complete, they will produce 1,200 megawatts (MW) of electricity, enough to power the equivalent of 1.2 million homes, to help bridge a power gap that could emerge in the early 2030s in the absence of net-new baseload power sources added to the grid.
More than eighty Ontario companies have already signed agreements with OPG to deliver this first-of-a-kind project, establishing themselves as leaders in the growing domestic and global markets for new nuclear technologies. The government has also negotiated additional commitments from GE Hitachi that will create jobs in Ontario, that will soon be unveiled.
Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) concluded that the Darlington New Nuclear Project is the best option to meet growing demand in terms of costs and risks, when compared against non-emitting generation alternatives. This, combined with OPG’s outstanding track-record on the Darlington Refurbishment Project, factored into the government’s decision to support the Darlington New Nuclear Project.
Within Canada, the Ontario government and OPG are collaborating with power companies in Alberta, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick as they work towards the deployment of SMRs in their jurisdictions. Around the world, the government has helped secure job-creating agreements that deploy Made-In-Ontario components to build SMR’s for the world.
Advancing construction on the Darlington New Nuclear Project SMRs is just one part of Ontario’s Affordable Energy Future, the government’s vision as it plans for rising energy demand.
Quick Facts
- The government is supporting OPG’s $20.9 billion budget for the Darlington New Nuclear Project, which includes site preparation, engineering and design work to date, as well as the construction of all four small modular reactors.
- During project development OPG will continue to build respectful, collaborative relationships with the communities of the Williams Treaties First Nations, while pursuing potential opportunities for their equity partnership in the project. This would be a first-of-its-kind partnership in Canada for nuclear energy generation, reflecting the government and OPG’s commitment to ensure local First Nations benefit from new projects in their territories.
- Once complete, the Darlington New Nuclear Projects four SMRs will produce 1,200 megawatts (MW) of electricity, enough to power 1.2 million homes.
- According to the IESO, the province would need to build up to 8,900 MW of wind and solar paired with battery storage to replace the output of four SMRs. The IESO also concluded this alternative approach would carry significant risks including significant land requirements and the need for large scale transmission build out.
- The first SMR will cost $6.1 billion, along with costs for systems and services common to all four SMRs of $1.6 billion. Costs are expected to decline with each subsequent unit as efficiencies are gained, similar to the Darlington Refurbishment Project.
- OPG began site preparation for the first SMR in December 2022. Ontario announced that OPG would begin planning and licensing for three additional SMRs, for a total of four SMRs at the Darlington nuclear site in July 2023. OPG obtained a Licence to Construct (LTC) for Unit 1 from the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) in April 2025.
- To reduce costs the Government of Ontario is exploring potential financial instruments that would benefit ratepayers, and in parallel, OPG continues to explore other optimal financing arrangements.
Quotes
“This is a proud achievement for Ontario – this small modular reactor project is not only powering our future, it is driving real results for our economy. With thousands of good-paying jobs, billions in economic impact, and made-in-Ontario expertise leading the way, we are showing the world what our workers and industries can achieve.”
– Peter Bethlenfalvy
MPP, Pickering-Uxbridge
“The launch of Canada’s first grid-scale small modular reactor at Darlington marks a major milestone for our Province—powering growth, creating jobs, and securing a clean energy future right here in Durham Region. This transformative project will strengthen our Region’s economy, provide long-term careers, and reinforce Durham’s role as a leader in clean nuclear innovation.”
– Lorne Coe
MPP, Whitby, Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister of Children, Community and Social Services, and Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister of Colleges, Universities, Research Excellence, and Security
“Today’s announcement is the next step to strengthening Ontario and Canada’s energy security while supporting thousands of good-paying jobs for workers in the region. Once complete, this SMR will be the first of its kind in the G7, delivering clean reliable and affordable electricity to homes and businesses.”
– Todd McCarthy
MPP, Durham
“As the first mover on SMRs, this made-in-Ontario project will create jobs for the province’s workers, contracts for Ontario’s booming supply chain, and showcase our capabilities and expertise to the world to further grow our domestic industry while strengthening Canada’s energy security. As we saw through the refurbishment project, building a fleet of SMRs with the support of Ontario’s strong nuclear supply chain will provide further opportunities to learn, identify efficiencies, and expand the supply chain. All of this invaluable, irreplaceable experience will prepare us to take on the next large nuclear project.”
– Nicolle Butcher
President and Chief Executive Officer, OPG
“This is a proud moment for GE Vernova Hitachi and Ontario as we move from vision to reality with construction of the G7’s first SMR, the BWRX-300. With dozens of Ontario-based suppliers contributing to this project, we’re not just building a reactor—we’re generating thousands of good-paying jobs, driving investment into communities across the province, and reinforcing Ontario’s global leadership in clean energy technology. That leadership is already opening doors to international export opportunities for Ontario companies, helping position our province as a global hub for next-generation nuclear innovation. GE has been part of Canada’s nuclear story from the very beginning, and we’re honoured to carry that legacy forward by delivering a made-in-Ontario solution that strengthens our economy and powers our future.”
– Lisa McBride
Country Leader, GE Vernova Hitachi SMR Canada
“Clarington is excited to team up with the Ontario Government and OPG to advance new nuclear technology. As we host the first SMR in the G7, we’re paving the way for clean energy that will benefit everyone. Our leadership in this global nuclear renaissance is thrilling. The Darlington SMR project promises thousands of jobs during construction and hundreds more during operations, boosting economic growth and job creation in Clarington now and in the future.”
– Adrian Foster
Mayor, Clarington
“The Ontario Government’s approval of OPG’s small modular reactor project at Darlington represents a major milestone in the province’s clean energy strategy. This project will deliver long-term economic and environmental benefits across Ontario, including thousands of skilled jobs and a reliable, low-carbon power supply. We commend the Province for its continued commitment to investing in innovative and future-focused energy solutions.”
– Olena Hankivsky
Mayor, Municipality of Port Hope
“I am excited to be part of this historic announcement. Haldimand County looks forward to working with Minister Lecce on bringing clean energy to Ontario, thousands of jobs and millions of dollars annually into Ontario’s Economy.”
– Shelley Ann Bentley
Mayor, Haldimand County
“The Township of St. Clair recognizes the very real impacts the projected shortage of power will have not only in our municipality, but also province-wide. That is why the Ontario Government’s announcement today authorizing the construction of the first of four small modular reactors at the Darlington nuclear site is very exciting.”
– Jeff Agar
Mayor, Township of St. Clair
“The Government of Ontario’s approval for OPG to begin construction on its trailblazing Darlington New Nuclear Project is leading the way in delivering the next generation of nuclear plants across North America and internationally. Aecon is proud to bring its diverse nuclear expertise and multidisciplinary capabilities to play a prominent role in safely executing this exciting project to meet the energy demands of future generations in Ontario.”
– Jean-Louis Servranckx
President and Chief Executive Officer, Aecon Group Inc.
“This is an exciting day for Clarington, Durham Region, and Canada. Being home to the first site globally to start construction on SMRs demonstrates the leadership role that our region plays in the new nuclear sector. This is a monumental step forward by the Ontario Government for energy security and availability in Canada. Congratulations to OPG on this milestone.”
– John Henry
Regional Chair and Chief Executive Officer, Regional Municipality of Durham
“Ontario’s SMR project builds on Ontario’s clean energy advantage by putting Ontario at the forefront of clean energy knowledge and technology that can be exported around the world. The OEA supports the Ontario Government’s plan to make the Province a world leader in nuclear energy and maintain nuclear power as a core element of Ontario’s clean affordable energy sector.”
– Vince Brescia
President and Chief Executive Officer, Ontario Energy Association
“Today’s announcement by the Government of Ontario turns vision into reality for the Province’s clean energy future. The construction of the Darlington New Nuclear Project will deliver clean, reliable power that our economy needs to thrive, while driving innovation, investment, and good-paying jobs across the province. By deploying the first grid-scale SMR in the G7, Ontario is cementing its place as a global nuclear leader and an emerging energy superpower.”
– Giles Gherson
President and Chief Executive Officer, Toronto Region Board of Trade
“The start of construction on this SMR is a meaningful step forward for Ontario and for Canada. It reflects what can be accomplished through strong leadership, technical excellence, and a clear vision for the future. It also carries real opportunity—for Indigenous-owned businesses to be part of critical infrastructure projects in ways that create long-term impact. We’re proud to support OPG in this work and to stand alongside other supply chain partners helping to drive this project forward.”
– Clint Keeler
President, Voyageur Services Limited
“This historic milestone by the Government of Ontario is not only a bold step forward in clean energy innovation, but a powerful demonstration of how local businesses can directly contribute to—and benefit from—nation-leading projects. We are proud to see so many Clarington businesses directly support the construction of the first SMR. We commend OPG and the Provincial Government for their commitment to local economic development and for working with Ontario-based suppliers. Their leadership sets the tone for what’s possible when industry and community work together to power our future.”
– Bonnie Wrightman
Executive Director, Clarington Board of Trade
“Ontario’s historic investment in small modular reactors is a powerful statement of confidence in our province’s skilled workforce and energy future. The Darlington SMR project not only secures clean, reliable power for generations, it creates thousands of good-paying jobs and reinforces our position as a global leader in nuclear innovation. LiUNA members are proud to be at the forefront of this transformative project, building the infrastructure that powers our economy, strengthens our communities, and ensures prosperity for working families across Ontario.”
– Joseph Mancinelli
International Vice President, Canadian Director, Labourers’ International Union of North America (LiUNA)
“The Ontario Building Trades and Helmets to Hardhats Canada proudly support the Ontario Government’s development of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) as a key part of Canada’s clean energy future. The construction of SMRs offers prosperous careers for Building Trades workers including Canada’s veterans transitioning to civilian life. We stand ready to help build this next generation of nuclear technology safely, efficiently, and with the highest standards of craftsmanship.”
– James Hogarth
President, Provincial Building and Construction Trades Council of Ontario
“To begin construction on the SMR’s at Darlington amidst significant global uncertainty makes it crystal clear that Ontario is not about to hit the pause button or sit on the sidelines and wait. Rather at this pivotal time OPG and the Province are showing their commitment to ensuring that Ontario remains a front runner in clean, reliable baseload power production. At a time when we need to invest in our own energy security, and in the very men and women who power our great province… the government is doing just that in creating jobs, creating clean power, and creating the supply chain that will position us to showcase our world leading nuclear expertise. The International Brotherhood of Boilermakers congratulates OPG, the vendor partners, and the Ontario Government on their announcement to begin the construction phase of North America’s first grid-sized SMR.”
– Jonathan White
Director, International Brotherhood of Boilermakers
“The power sector labour market partners have negotiated a 5-year agreement that will provide the labour relations stability to make this historic project by the Ontario Government and OPG a success.”
– Alex Lolua
General Manager, Electrical Power Systems Construction Association
“As the union representing the professionals who operate Ontario’s nuclear facilities, the Society of United Professionals is glad to see the Government of Ontario’s approval for the construction of the Darlington Small Modular Reactor. Projects like this will mean more good quality, union jobs that you can raise a family on and support our communities. To electrify our economy, meet our long-term clean energy needs, and achieve Canada’s energy independence we will need SMRs to complement our large-scale CANDU nuclear facilities to power our future.”
– Rebecca Caron
President, Society of United Professionals
“Today marks a major step forward for Canada’s clean energy future. The start of construction on the first grid-scale small modular reactor in the G7 is a clear signal that Ontario is serious about decarbonization, energy security, economic growth and international opportunities. With a strong domestic supply chain and world-class expertise, our industry is ready to deliver, bringing clean, reliable power to more Canadians while supporting good jobs and local communities.”
– George Christidis
Interim President and Chief Executive Officer, Canadian Nuclear Association
“Salit Steel is proud to play a role in this landmark clean energy project. As a Canadian, family-owned company with over 120 years of experience in the steel industry, we are deeply committed to supporting nation-building infrastructure. We’re honoured to contribute our reinforcing steel expertise to a made-in-Ontario solution that will power homes, create good-paying local jobs, and position Canada as a global leader in nuclear innovation. This project by the Ontario Government and OPG is a pivotal step toward a cleaner, more sustainable energy future, and we’re proud to help build its foundation.”
– Steven Cohen
Owner, Salit Steel
“Small modular reactors are pivotal to Ontario’s clean energy and economic future. Ontario Tech University is pleased to see the commencement of construction on the first of four SMRs begin at Darlington. As the home of Canada’s only accredited undergraduate nuclear engineering program, we are dedicated to training the next generation of nuclear industry talent from entry to expert. Our students are uniquely positioned to support these investments and will drive innovation and lead the future of clean energy right here in Durham Region.”
– Dr. Steven Murphy
President and Vice-Chancellor, Ontario Tech University
“The Ontario Chamber has long advocated for investments in diverse forms of clean energy — including SMRs — to help meet electricity demand for a growing economy. Today’s announcement – and its exciting opportunities for Ontario companies – supports our businesses and workers, positions Ontario as a global nuclear innovation leader, and helps ensure clean, reliable and affordable energy to power our future.”
– Daniel Tisch
President and Chief Executive Officer, Ontario Chamber of Commerce
“The IBEW Local Union 353 appreciates all the continued hard work and support by the Ontario Government – we maintain the growth in developing education programs that support our members in preserving the quality of work that our customers expect. The experience with our members and contractors that we have gained over the last 10 years together has helped us to build valued partnerships and expand community outreach programs that are building our province.”
– Salvatore Maltese
Business Rep, IBEW Local Union 353
“BWXT applauds the leadership shown by the Ontario government and OPG to secure the economic and environmental future of Ontario through this historic nuclear energy project. Our team is now manufacturing the first reactor pressure vessel for Darlington and we proudly embrace our role as a key partner to the Canadian nuclear industry.”
– John MacQuarrie
President, Commercial Operations, BWXT
Economy
Canada’s Energy Wealth Is Bleeding South

From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy
Without infrastructure, Canada is losing billions while the U.S. cashes in on our oil and gas
Canada’s energy wealth is stuck in traffic, and our American neighbours are cashing in. It’s worse than that. Canada is bleeding millions of dollars daily because it lacks the infrastructure to export its natural resources efficiently.
While our oil and gas continue to flow—mainly to the United States—provinces like Alberta and British Columbia are forced to sell at steep discounts. This isn’t just an economic inefficiency; it’s a structural failure of national policy. The beneficiaries? American businesses and their governments which pocket the profits and tax revenues that should be circulating through the Canadian economy. This is no way to achieve economic sovereignty for Canada.
With U.S. interests reaping the rewards, this should have been a central talking point when Prime Minister Carney met with President Trump earlier this month.
Ottawa often offers the recent completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline as an example of federal support for the energy sector. But such claims are misleading. Kinder Morgan, a private enterprise, had initially planned to build the extension without a penny from taxpayers. It withdrew only after being crippled by federal regulatory delays and political uncertainty.
Ottawa stepped in not as a benevolent saviour to help Albertans, but to prevent lawsuits and save face—ultimately overpaying for the pipeline and watching construction costs balloon to nearly six times the original estimate.
To now declare this bungled project a “gift” to Alberta, as a recent op-ed in the Toronto Star did, is not only tone-deaf: it’s an insult. It ignores the fact that Alberta’s taxpayers helped finance the very project Ottawa botched. It also reveals an astonishing lack of understanding of the historical, economic and political dynamics at play between Ottawa and Western Canada.
The tragedy is that TMX, despite its importance, is insufficient. Our infrastructure bottlenecks remain. With each passing day, Canada forfeits wealth that could fund essential improvements in health care, education and national defence.
According to the Frontier Centre for Public Policy, which has developed a real-time tracker to monitor these losses, the price differential between what we could earn on global markets versus what we settle for domestically adds up to $26.5 billion annually.
Ottawa’s reluctance to greenlight new infrastructure is a primary cause of this problem. Ironically, the losses from this reluctance in a single year would be enough to pay for another TMX, mismanaged or not. The solution lies in a national commitment to building utility corridors: designated routes that facilitate the movement of energy, goods and services unhindered across provincial boundaries.
Carney’s recent promise to remove all interprovincial trade barriers by July 1 is a nice soundbite. But unless it includes meaningful infrastructure commitments, it is bound to fail like every other rhetorical flourish before it.
Canadians should be rightly skeptical. After all, what Ottawa has failed to achieve in the 157 years since Confederation is unlikely to be accomplished in the next 60 days.
The political math doesn’t help either. The Bloc Québécois holds the balance of power in the 45th Parliament, and its obstructionist stance on national pipeline development ensures the advent of more gridlock, not less. The federal government continues to uphold Bill C-69—dubbed the “no-pipelines bill”—further entrenching the status quo.
Meanwhile, Canada remains in the absurd position of relying on U.S. infrastructure to transport oil from the West to Ontario and Quebec. This undermines our economic independence, energy security and national sovereignty. No amount of “elbows up” will correct this enormous gap.
If the prime minister is serious about transforming Canada’s economic landscape and making the country strong, he must bypass the Bloc by cooperating with the Official Opposition. A grand bargain focused on utility corridors, interprovincial infrastructure and national trade efficiency would serve Alberta, Saskatchewan, and every Canadian who depends on a strong and self-reliant economy.
The stakes are high. We need a more productive country to face challenges within Canada and from abroad. Billions in lost revenue could fund new hospitals, more schools and better military readiness.
Instead, along with the limited exports of oil and gas, we’re exporting great opportunities to middlemen—and greater economic strength—south of the border.
The path forward is clear. A strong, self-reliant Canada needs infrastructure. It needs corridors. It needs leadership.
Marco Navarro-Genie is the vice president of research at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy. He is coauthor, with Barry Cooper, of Canada’s COVID: The Story of a Pandemic Moral Panic (2023).
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