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10 reasons Donald Trump is headed for a landslide victory over Kamala Harris

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12 minute read

From LifeSiteNews

By Stephen Kokx

Republicans voting early, Democrats’ dislike for Kamala Harris, and polling and gambling numbers are all signs that the former president will win the election.

There is one week left in the presidential race and by all indications Donald Trump is headed for a landslide victory.

Many people I talk to tell me that they are fearful that it will be stolen from him. Here’s why I don’t think that’s likely at this point.

First, there are more registered Republicans in battleground states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and elsewhere than there were four years ago. This is a built-in statistical advantage for Trump.

Second, early voting and mail-in voting show that more Republicans are casting their ballots before Election Day than Democrats this year, which has not been the case in previous presidential races.

Analyst Mark Halperin has predicted that if those trends continue, Trump will be declared the winner relatively early after polls close next Tuesday.

 

 

That fact was recognized by Barack Obama a week ago when he told the media that “the brothas” do not have the same “energy” for Harris as they did when he himself ran for president.

 

Obama’s comment did not go unnoticed. During an MSNBC town hall at a barbershop in Philadelphia, black males told reporter Alex Wagner they were “offended” by Obama lecturing them how to vote.

Left-wing MSNBC anchor Andrea Mitchell has also admitted that Harris has a “big problem with men,” as have other websites.

Fourth, if you look at where Trump is campaigning this week, you can only conclude that his internal polling indicates he has shored up enough support in key battleground states that he can afford to go elsewhere to expand the map.

To be sure, he will still be visiting Wisconsin, North Carolina, and other Midwestern states over the next seven days, but he’s also headed to New Mexico, where, according to one poll he is within the margin of error.

 

Trump’s decision is notable because New Mexico hasn’t voted for a Republican president since George Bush in 2004. Mark Halperin has said, “if Trump wins New Mexico, he’s going to win in a landslide.”

 

Trump is also headed to Virginia, another historically Democrat state. Virginia elected Republican Glenn Youngkin in 2022. He is fighting to prevent illegal immigrants from voting and has instituted a number of other reforms that will likely have the effect of ensuring the count is accurate.

Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, appeared with Youngkin in the state last week. It’s clear the campaign believes he has a chance there.

 

Fifth, almost all polling data in recent days, even those from left-leaning organizations, shows a decisive break in Trump’s favor.

 

Harris’ decision to skip the Al Smith Dinner and her awful appearances on Fox, MSNBC, and her CNN town hall with Anderson Cooper are likely to blame.

The “vibe shift,” as Tucker Carlson has called it, has been so dramatic that even liberal outlets like CNN are admitting that Trump very may well capture the popular vote.

Michigan and New Hampshire are also states he has improved in in recent days.

At least in 2020 there was a plausible explanation for Joe Biden’s supposed victory as many polls showed he was ahead going into Election Day. This time around, that argument is not on the table.

Sixth, Democrats have no end game. They are trying to link Trump to “fascism.” This is an awful closing message, especially for a candidate who promised to “unite” Americans. This shows how desperate they are.

Hillary Clinton, for example, went on MSNBC and laughably claimed Trump’s epic Madison Square Garden rally Sunday night was a Neo-Nazi rally. Why she didn’t use the term “deplorables” is beyond me.

During its own coverage of the event, MSNBC ludicrously compared it a pro-Hitler gathering there in 1939 while failing to note that Bill Clinton himself accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination at the same arena in 1992.

Even ABC’s Jonathan Karl couldn’t deny that the rally was a pivotal moment in the campaign.

“Trump has created a movement, there is no doubt. I cannot think of another Republican figure of my lifetime who could’ve come into a Democrat city like New York and put together anything like that,” he said.

Conservative Charlie Kirk has theorized that the constant Hitler references are intentional, and that Democrats are laying the groundwork for yet another assassination attempt.

Only a campaign that realizes it is on its death bed does such desperate things.

Seventh, Democrats are admitting that Trump is doing exceptionally well.

Left-wing New York City Mayor Eric Adams told the press this weekend that Trump is not a fascist.

Progressive commentator Cenk Uygar commented that Trump “looked presidential and personable” during his Joe Rogan interview. He called Harris a robot who acts like a “talking point machine.”

Former CNN anchor Chris Cuomo, who relentlessly pushed the COVID shot and is now injured from receiving it, hosted a town hall with JD Vance on News Nation. Cuomo could not deny that Vance and Trump appeal to many ordinary voters.

If Adams, Uygar, and Cuomo are admitting this, then regular Americans, even those who have supported Democrats in the past, are thinking it too.

Eighth, the betting markets favor Trump.

Alright, so this is a pretty unscientific way to gauge an election, but money talks, does it not?

If the oddsmakers are hedging their bets and predicting a Trump win, then chances are they know what they are doing. If they didn’t, they’d be out of business. I don’t think it is realistic to think they are up to some sinister game by tinkering with the numbers right now given all the other trends mentioned above.

Ninth, there is no obvious explanation for a Harris victory if a steal were to occur, as there is no voting bloc she can point to right now that could win the election for her.

Over the past two months, Trump has enlisted a small army of politicians, influencers, and media personalities to cast as wide a net for him as possible.

While Tucker Carlson is out riling up young male voters, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is courting moderate Democrats and health-conscious medical freedom activists.

What’s more, while Tulsi Gabbard is on the stump speaking with women, Elon Musk is making it easier for tech executives and business owners to support Trump.

What segment of the voting population is left for Harris to convince in this last week of the campaign? The sponge has been rung dry and the constant heckling of her at her rallies suggests folks have grown tired of her constant lies and evasiveness.

Tenth, there is no “October Surprise” that could derail Trump’s campaign at this point, especially with voting already underway.

Trump has been in the public spotlight for well over 40 years. He is a known entity, and the American people are preferring him — yet again — to the Democratic option, despite his personal flaws and scandals.

It is simply not possible for Harris to get the polls to go back to even and then rally not just the Democratic base but crucial independent voters next Tuesday.

As Carlson said at a rally in Georgia last week, if the Deep State does cheat and Harris is declared the winner, the people won’t put up with it this time. It will be too obvious that it was fraudulent as all the traditional indicators show she is headed for an historic defeat. I could be wrong, and I have been before, but I’m more inclined today to place a bet on Trump on one of those websites than Harris.

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Brownstone Institute

If Trump Wins

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From the Brownstone Institute

By  Bret Swanson  

How will he organize the “deportation” of illegal migrants? In the best case, it will be difficult. There will be scuffles and chases. Critics will charge the new Administration as cruel and worse. How much stomach will Republicans have for a messy process?

Trump enjoys the momentum. Four of the most recent major national polls show him up 2 to 3%, while Democratic-friendly outlets like the New York Times and CNN both show a TIE race in their final surveys. The 2016 and 2020 elections were razor close even though Clinton (5%) and Biden (8%) had solid polling leads at this point. We need to contemplate a Trump win not only in the electoral college but also in the popular vote.

Here are some thoughts:

  1. JD Vance ascendant, obviously. Big implications for the Republican trajectory.
  2. Will Trump replace Fed chairman Jay Powell? Or merely jawbone for a change in policy? In a new CNBC interview, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh argues that the Fed has juiced both the stock market and inflation. Would reducing inflation, which Trump has promised, automatically therefore lead to a stock market correction and economic slowdown? Not necessarily. If Trump unleashes productive economic activity and Congress ends the fiscal blowout, the Fed could normalize monetary policy without causing a major economic slump.
  3. Will Trump impose the broad and deep tariffs he proposed? Or will he mostly threaten them as a bargaining tool with China? I’m betting on some of the former but more of the latter. We notice, however, Trump allies are floating a trial balloon to replace income taxes with tariffs. As impractical and improbable as that may be, we’re glad to see the mention of radical tax reform reemerge after too long an absence from the national discussion.
  4. How will he organize the “deportation” of illegal migrants? In the best case, it will be difficult. There will be scuffles and chases. Critics will charge the new Administration as cruel and worse. How much stomach will Republicans have for a messy process? One idea would be to offer a “reverse amnesty” – if you leave peacefully and agree not to return illegally, we will forgive your previous illegal entry(s) and minor violations. This would incentivize self-identification and quiet departure. Plus it would help authorities track those leaving. Would migrant departures truly hit the economy, as critics charge? We doubt large effects. Substantial native populations are still underemployed or absent from the workforce.
  5. We should expect a major retrenchment of regulatory intrusions across the economy – from energy to crypto. Combined with recent Supreme Court action, such as the Chevron reversal, and assisted by the Elon Musk’s substance and narrative, it could be a regulatory renaissance. Extension of the 2017 tax cuts also becomes far more likely.
  6. Trump has never worried much about debt, deficits, or spending. But he’s tapped Elon Musk as government efficiency czar. It’s an orthogonal approach to spending reform instead of the traditional (and unsuccessful) Paul Ryan playbook. Can this good cop-bad cop duo at the very least return out-of-control outlays to a pre-Covid path? Can they at least cancel purely kleptocratic programs, such as the $370-billion Green Energy slush funds? Might they go even further – leveraging the unpopular spending explosion and resulting inflation to achieve more revolutionary effects on government spending and reach? Or will the powerful and perennial forces of government expansion win yet again, sustaining a one-way ratchet not even Elon can defeat?
  7. What if the economy turns south? One catalyst might be the gigantic unrealized bond losses on bank balance sheets; another might be commercial real estate collapse. Although reported GDP growth has been okay, the inflation hangover is helping Trump win on the economy. But many believe the post-pandemic economic expansion is merely a sugar-high and has already lasted longer than expected. A downturn early in Trump’s term could complicate many of his plans.
  8. How will NATO and its transatlantic network respond? Or more generally, what will the neocon and neoliberal hawks, concentrated in DC and the media, but little loved otherwise, do? Does this item from Anne Applebaum — arguing Trump resembles Hitler, Mussolini, and Stalin all rolled into one — portend continued all-out war on prudent foreign policy? Or will they adopt a more sophisticated approach? If the neocons move wholesale and formally (back) into the Democratic fold, how long will the coalition of wokes and militarists hold? On the economic front, Europe, already underperforming vis-a-vis the US, will fall even further behind without big changes. Reformers should gain at the expense of the transatlantic WEF-style bureaucrats.
  9. Can Trump avoid another internal sabotage of his Administration? Before then, if the election results are tight, will the Democrats seek to complicate or even block his inauguration? Can he win approval for his appointees in the Senate? Can he clean house across the vast public agencies? How long will it take to recruit, train, and reinvigorate talented military leadership, which we chased away in recent years? And how will Trump counter – and avoid overreacting to – taunts, riots, unrest, and lawfare, designed to bolster the case he’s an authoritarian?
  10. Will the Democrats reorient toward the center, a la Bill Clinton? Or will the blinding hatred of Trump fuel yet more radicalism? Orthodox political thinking suggests a moderation. Especially if Trump wins the popular vote, or comes close, pragmatic Democrats will counsel a reformation. James Carville, for example, already complains that his party careened recklessly away from male voters. And Trump’s apparent pickups among Black and Latino voters complicate the Democrats’ longstanding identity-focused strategy. Other incentives might push toward continued belligerence and extreme wokeness, however, and thus an intra-party war.
  11. Will the half of the country which inexplicably retains any confidence in the legacy media at least begin rethinking its information diet and filters? Or has the infowarp inflicted permanent damage?
  12. Will big business, which shifted hard toward Democrats over the last 15 years, recalibrate toward the GOP? Parts of Silicon Valley over the last year began a reorientation — e.g. Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen, David Sacks, and before them, Peter Thiel in 2016. But those are the entrepreneurs. In the receding past, businesses large and small generally lined up against government overreach. Then Big Business and Big Government merged. Now, a chief divide is between politically-enmeshed bureaucratic businesses and entrepreneurial ones. Does the GOP even want many of the big guys back? The GOP’s new alignment with “Little Tech” is an exciting development, especially after being shut out of Silicon Valley for the last two decades.
  13. Industry winners: traditional energy, nuclear energy, Little Tech. Industry losers: Green Energy, Big Tech, Big Pharma, Big Food. Individual winners: X (nee Twitter), Elon Musk, RFK, Jr.
  14. How will the Censorship Industrial Complex react? A Trump win will pose both a symbolic and operational blow to governmental, non-governmental, old media, and new media outlets determined to craft and control facts and narratives. It will complicate their mission, funding, and organizational web. Will they persist in their “mis/disinformation” framing and their badgering of old media and social media companies to moderate content aggressively? Or will they devise a new strategy? A.I. is pretty clearly the next frontier in the information wars. How will those who propagandize and rewire human minds attempt to program and prewire artificial ones?
  15. How will Trump integrate RFK, Jr. and his movement? Will RFK, Jr. achieve real influence, especially on health issues? Big Pharma and Big Public Health will wage a holy war to block reforms in general and accountability for Covid mistakes in particular.
  16. Trump has promised to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. On one hand, it should be easy. Despite what you hear from DC media and think tanks, Ukraine is losing badly. Hundreds of thousands are dead, and its military is depleted and faltering. Ukraine should want a deal quickly, before it loses yet more people and territory. Russia, meanwhile, always said it wants a deal, even before the war started, focusing on Ukrainian neutrality. Why Ukrainian neutrality should bother the US was always a mystery. And yet even critics of the West’s support for Ukraine, who want an agreement, think it will be difficult to achieve. The Western foreign policy establishment has invested too much credibility and emotion. It will charge “appeasement” and “betrayal” and make any deal difficult for Trump. Russia, meanwhile, has secured so much territory and now has Odessa and Kharkiv in its sights. Putin will not be eager to accept a deal he would have taken in 2021 or before. The far better path for all involved was a pre-war agreement, or the one negotiated but scuttled in April 2022.
  17. What if A.I. launches a new productivity boom, enabled by an agenda of energy abundance, including a nuclear power revival? The economic tailwinds could remake politics even more than we currently see.
  18. Can Trump, having run and won his last campaign, consolidate gains by reaching out and uniting the portions of the country willing to take an extended hand?

Republished from the author’s Substack

Author

Bret Swanson is president of the technology research firm Entropy Economics LLC, a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and writes the Infonomena Substack.

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Daily Caller

Trump Reportedly Told Netanyahu Israel Needs To Finish Gaza War By Time He Takes Office

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation 

By Adam Pack

Former President Donald Trump reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that if he wins a second term Israel’s war in Gaza needs to be finished by the time he takes office in January, The Times of Israel (TOI) reported.

Israel went to war with Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, and the ensuing conflict has left the terrorist group crippled and swaths of the Gaza enclave in ruins. Trump has been a vocal supporter of Israel’s efforts to wipe out Hamas, but has expressed that he wants the war to end in short order, telling Netanyahu in July that it needs to be over by the start of 2025, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter told TOI.

The message was relayed to Netanyahu during the prime minister’s visit to Trump’s Florida Mar-a-Lago resort, the sources told TOI. While Netanyahu’s trip to Mar-a-Lago was widely reported on at the time, this is the first occasion it has been reported that Trump said this during the visit.

 

Trump didn’t go into specifics with Netanyahu about his request, so it’s possible he would support “residual” Israeli military activity in Gaza, a former U.S. official told TOI. Trump also wants Israel to secure the release of the remaining hostages in Gaza — some of which are American citizens — before he takes office in January.

Relations between Trump and Netanyahu were icy after Trump lost the 2020 election. Netanyahu congratulated President Joe Biden following that election in a video message, angering Trump. Trump also felt at the time Netanyahu wasn’t serious about resolving tensions between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

But the two have seemingly mended relations this year. They have spoken on several occasions since Netanyahu’s visit to Mar-a-Lago in July. Netanyahu has said that Trump had called him two days in a row recently.

However, Trump has said on multiple occasions that Israel’s war in Gaza needs to end quickly because it has devasted the enclave and the Palestinian population living there, raising concerns among Israeli officials, two Israeli officials told TOI earlier this month. While Israel’s military operations in Gaza have largely ended, the government doesn’t yet seem comfortable with withdrawing entirely — especially given concerns that Hamas or the Palestinian Authority, widely seen as a corrupt governing body, will fill the power vacuum.

Despite Trump’s wishes, there are some hardliners in Netanyahu’s orbit who have threatened to oust the prime minister from power if he ends the war.

“A fight with Trump is something he hasn’t really had to deal with, and I think it’s something he’d want to avoid, but [Finance Minister Bezalel] Smotrich and [National Security Minister Itamar] Ben Gvir may not let him,” a Knesset member told TOI.

The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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