Canadian Energy Centre
‘Big vulnerability’: How Ontario and Quebec became reliant on U.S. oil and gas

From the Canadian Energy Centre
ARC Energy Institute leaders highlight the need for a new approach in a new reality
Despite Canada’s status as one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers, more than half of the country’s own population does not have true energy security – uninterrupted, reliable access to the energy they need at an affordable price.
Even though Western Canada produces much of the oil consumed in Ontario and Quebec, in order to get there, it moves on pipelines that run through the United States.
“It’s only energy secure if the Americans are our partners and friends,” leading energy researcher Jackie Forrest said on a recent episode of the ARC Energy Ideas podcast.
Amid rising trade tensions with the United States, energy security is taking on greater importance. But Forrest said the issue is not well understood across Canada.
“The concern is that in the worst-case scenario where the Americans want to really hurt our country, they have the ability to stop all crude oil flows to Ontario,” she said.
That action would also cut off the majority of oil supply to Quebec.
The issue isn’t much better for natural gas, with about half of consumption in Ontario and Quebec supplied by producers in the U.S.
“Tariffs or no tariffs, there is a real vulnerability there,” said Forrest’s co-host Peter Tertzakian, founder of the ARC Energy Research Institute.
The issue won’t go away with increased use of new technology like electric cars, he said.
“This isn’t just about combustion in engines. It’s about securing a vital commodity that is an input into other parts of our manufacturing and sophisticated economy.”
Oil: The Enbridge Mainline
The Enbridge Mainline is the main path for oil from Western Canada to reach refineries in Ontario and Quebec, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP).
Originating in Edmonton, Alberta, the Enbridge Mainline moves crude oil, refined products, and natural gas liquids through a connected pipeline system. At Superior, Wisconsin, the system splits into Line 5, going north of Lake Michigan, and Lines 6, 14, and 61, going around the southern tip of the lake. The two routes then coalesce and terminate in Sarnia, Ontario, where it is interconnected with Line 9, which is terminated in Montreal, Quebec. Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
Originally built in 1950 from Edmonton to Superior, Wisconsin, in 1953, it was extended to Sarnia, Ontario through a segment known as Line 5.
CAPP said that at the time, politicians had pushed for an all-Canadian path north of the Great Lakes to increase energy security, but routes through the U.S. were chosen because of lower project costs and faster timelines.
In 1979, an extension of the pipeline called Line 9 opened, allowing oil to flow east from Sarnia to Montreal.
“Line 9 was built after the oil crisis and the OPEC embargo as a way to bring western Canadian crude oil into Quebec,” Forrest said.
But by the 1990s – before the massive growth in Alberta’s oil sands – there was a lack of crude coming from Western Canada. It became more economically attractive for refineries in Quebec and Ontario to import oil from overseas via the St. Lawrence River, CAPP said.
A reversal in 1999 allowed crude in Line 9 to flow west from Montreal to Sarnia.
By the 2010s, the situation had changed again, with production from the Alberta oil sands and U.S. shale plays surging. With more of that oil available, the offshore crude was deemed to be more expensive, Forrest said.
In 2015, Line 9 was reversed to send oil east again from Sarnia to Montreal, displacing oil from overseas but not resolving the energy security risk of Canadian pipelines running through the U.S.
CAPP said the case of Line 5 illustrates this risk. In 2020, the Governor of Michigan attempted to shut down the pipeline over concerns about pipeline leak or potential oil spill in a seven-kilometre stretch under the Straits of Mackinac.
Line 5 has been operating in the Straits for 72 years without a single release.
Enbridge is advancing a project to encase the pipeline in a protective tunnel in the rock beneath the lakebed, but the legal battle with the State of Michigan remains ongoing.
Natural gas: The TC Canadian Mainline
The natural gas pipeline now known as TC Energy’s Canadian Mainline from Alberta was first built in 1958.
The TC Canadian Mainline (red dashed line) transports natural gas produced in Western Canada to markets in Eastern Canada. Red lines show pipelines regulated by the Canada Energy Regulator, while black lines show pipelines regulated by the United States. Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
“This pipeline brought gas into Ontario, and then it was extended to go into Quebec, and that was good for a long time,” Forrest said.
“But over time we built more pipelines into the United States, and it was a better economic path to go through the United States.”
The Mainline started running not at its full capacity, which caused tolls to go up and made it less and less attractive compared to U.S. options.
According to CAPP, between 2006 and 2023 the Mainline’s deliveries of gas from Western Canada to Ontario and Quebec were slashed in half.
“We should have said, ‘We need to find a way for this pipeline, over our own soil, to be competitive with the alternative’. But we didn’t,” Forrest said.
“Instead, we lost market share in Eastern Canada. And today we’re in a big bind, because if the Americans were to cut off our natural gas, we wouldn’t have enough natural gas into Quebec and Ontario.”
A different approach for a new reality
Forrest said the TC Mainline, which continues to operate at about half of its capacity, presents an opportunity to reduce Canada’s reliance on U.S. natural gas while at the same time building energy security for oil.
“Those are the same pipes that were going to be repurposed for oil, for Energy East,” Tertzakian said.
“The beauty of the thing is that actually, I don’t think it would take that long if we had the will… It’s doable that we can be energy secure.”
This could come at a higher cost but provide greater value over the long term.
“That’s always been the issue in Canada, when it comes to energy, we always go with the cheapest option and not the most energy secure,” Forrest said.
“And why? Because we always trusted our American neighbor to never do anything that will impact the flow of that energy. And I think we’re waking up to a new reality.”
Alberta
Energy projects occupy less than three per cent of Alberta’s oil sands region, report says

From the Canadian Energy Centre
By Will Gibson
‘Much of the habitat across the region is in good condition’
The footprint of energy development continues to occupy less than three per cent of Alberta’s oil sands region, according to a report by the Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute (ABMI).
As of 2021, energy projects impacted just 2.6 per cent of the oil sands region, which encompasses about 142,000 square kilometers of boreal forest in northern Alberta, an area nearly the size of Montana.
“There’s a mistaken perception that the oil sands region is one big strip mine and that’s simply not the case,” said David Roberts, director of the institute’s science centre.
“The energy footprint is very small in total area once you zoom out to the boreal forest surrounding this development.”

Between 2000 and 2021, the total human footprint in the oil sands region (including energy, agriculture, forestry and municipal uses) increased from 12.0 to 16.5 per cent.
At the same time, energy footprint increased from 1.4 to 2.6 per cent – all while oil sands production surged from 667,000 to 3.3 million barrels per day, according to the Alberta Energy Regulator.
The ABMI’s report is based on data from 328 monitoring sites across the Athabasca, Cold Lake and Peace River oil sands regions. Much of the region’s oil and gas development is concentrated in a 4,800-square-kilometre zone north of Fort McMurray.
“In general, the effects of energy footprint on habitat suitability at the regional scale were small…for most species because energy footprint occupies a small total area in the oil sands region,” the report says.
Researchers recorded species that were present and measured a variety of habitat characteristics.

The status and trend of human footprint and habitat were monitored using fine-resolution imagery, light detection and ranging data as well as satellite images.
This data was used to identify relationships between human land use, habitat and population of species.
The report found that as of 2021, about 95 per cent of native aquatic and wetland habitat in the region was undisturbed while about 77 per cent of terrestrial habitat was undisturbed.
Researchers measured the intactness of the region’s 719 plant, insect and animal species at 87 per cent, which the report states “means much of the habitat across the region is in good condition.”
While the overall picture is positive, Roberts said the report highlights the need for ongoing attention to vegetation regeneration on seismic lines along with the management of impacts to species such as Woodland Caribou.

The ABMI has partnered with Indigenous communities in the region to monitor species of cultural importance. This includes a project with the Lakeland Métis Nation on a study tracking moose occupancy around in situ oil sands operations in traditional hunting areas.
“This study combines traditional Métis insights from knowledge holders with western scientific methods for data collection and analysis,” Roberts said.
The institute also works with oil sands companies, a relationship that Roberts sees as having real value.
“When you are trying to look at the impacts of industrial operations and trends in industry, not having those people at the table means you are blind and don’t have all the information,” Roberts says.
The report was commissioned by Canada’s Oil Sands Innovation Alliance, the research arm of Pathways Alliance, a consortium of the six largest oil sands producers.
“We tried to look around when we were asked to put together this report to see if there was a template but there was nothing, at least nothing from a jurisdiction with significant oil and gas activity,” Roberts said.
“There’s a remarkable level of analysis because of how much data we were able to gather.”
Alberta
Meet Marjorie Mallare, a young woman with a leading role at one of Canada’s largest refineries

Marjorie Mallare at Imperial Oil’s Strathcona refinery.
Fr0m the Canadian Energy Centre
By Cody Ciona
Mallare manages an all-female team of engineers helping keep operations smooth and safe
As the utilities and hydroprocessing technical lead for Imperial Oil’s Strathcona Refinery near Edmonton, 32-year-old Marjorie Mallare and her team help ensure operations run smoothly and safely at one of Canada’s largest industrial facilities.
The exciting part, she says, is that all four engineers she leads are female.
It’s part of the reason Mallare was named one of ten Young Women in Energy award winners for 2025.
“I hope they realize how important the work that they do is, inspiring and empowering women, connecting women and recognizing women in our industry,” she says.
“That can be very pivotal for young women, or really any young professional that is starting off their career.”
Born and raised in the Philippines, Mallare and her family moved to Edmonton near the end of junior high school.
Living in the industrial heartland of Alberta, it was hard not to see the opportunity present in the oil and gas industry.
When she started post-secondary studies at the University of Alberta in the early 2010s, the industry was booming.
“The amount of opportunities, at least when I started university, which was around 2011, was one of the high periods in our industry at the time. So, it was definitely very attractive,” Mallare says.
When choosing a discipline, engineering stood out.
“At the time, chemical engineering had the most number of females, so that was a contributing factor,” she says.
“Just looking at what’s available within the province, within the city, chemical engineering just seemed to offer a lot more opportunities, a lot more companies that I could potentially work for.”
Through work co-ops in oil and gas, her interest in a career in the industry continued to grow.
“It just kind of naturally happened. That drew my interest more and more, and it made it easier to find future opportunities,” Mallare says.
Following a work practicum with Imperial Oil and graduation, she started working with the company full time.
On the side, Mallare has also driven STEM outreach programs, encouraging young women to pursue careers in engineering.
In addition to supporting the Strathcona Refinery’s operations department, Mallare and her team work on sustainability-focused projects and reducing the refinery’s carbon footprint.
The 200,000 barrel per day facility represents about 30 per cent of Western Canada’s refining capacity.
“Eventually, our group will also be responsible for running the new renewable diesel unit that we’re planning to commission later this year,” says Mallare.
Once completed, the $720 million project will be the largest renewable diesel facility in Canada, producing more than one billion litres of biofuel annually.
Projects like these are why Mallare believes Canada will continue to be a global energy leader.
“We’re leading others already with regards to pursuing more sustainable alternatives and reducing our carbon footprints overall. That’s not something we should lose sight of.”
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