Canadian Energy Centre
Analyst says LNG Canada likely to start exports before year-end

Welders with JGC-Fluor following completion of the final weld on the first production train at the LNG Canada project, in Kitimat, B.C. in July 2024. Since construction began in 2018, upwards of 380 pipe welders have worked on the LNG Canada project. Photo courtesy JGC-Fluor
From the Canadian Energy Centre
By Will Gibson
Canada’s first liquefied natural gas export terminal ‘on the cusp’ of its testing phase
Momentum is building for the long-awaited start-up of Canada’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project.
Shipments from the LNG Canada terminal at Kitimat, B.C. may now start earlier than expected, later this year rather than mid-2025, according to Martin King, Canadian energy specialist with Houston-based RBN Energy.
“LNG Canada appears to be on the cusp of its testing phase and is likely to be exporting some cargoes of LNG before the end of this year,” King wrote recently.
He made the prediction after a senior executive with Shell, the project’s lead owner, said it could deliver its first cargo earlier than previously planned, in the wake of two key milestones.
Fluor reported in July it had completed the final weld on the first production train while Petronas, which holds a 25 per cent stake in LNG Canada, announced it would add three LNG vessels to its North American fleet, doubling its size.
A longtime industry insider sees the $18 billion LNG Canada terminal as a game changer.
“This is decades in the making. Canada has been trying to get its LNG business up and running since the 1970s but it has been sidetracked for one reason or another,” says Calgary-based consultant Racim Gribaa, who has worked in the industry for more than 25 years.
“This project is perfectly placed to take advantage of an awesome opportunity given the demand for LNG worldwide is growing exponentially.”
The project, which will use the Coastal GasLink pipeline, completed in November 2023, to bring gas from northeastern British Columbia to the Kitimat terminal for processing and shipping, will have capacity to produce up to 14 million tonnes per year in its first phase.
While that’s a fraction of the 404 million tonnes of global demand in 2023, Gribaa says Asian buyers view LNG Canada as secure supplier in part due to its geography.
“The closest point to Asia is Canada’s west coast, so you have the shortest shipping route, which makes for optimal transportation costs. The traders and LNG industry see it as valuable for that reason,” says Gribaa, who previously worked in LNG trade in Qatar, one of the world’s largest exporters.
And the project is coming online at a time when worldwide demand is surging.
“The worldwide demand has effectively doubled every decade since 1990, when it was 50 MPTA. We are now closing in on 500 MPTA and that is accelerating,” Gribaa says.
“The world will need 10 LNG Canadas in 10 years and 100 more LNG Canadas in the next 30 years.”
The project has plans for a second phase that would double production to 28 million tonnes per year. Based on demand, Gribaa says “the question isn’t if it will go forward, it’s when the consortium will announce the expansion.”
World LNG demand growth will be particularly strong in Asia, where Shell’s four LNG Canada partners – Petronas (25 per cent), PetroChina (15 per cent), Mitsubishi (15 per cent) and Korea Gas Corporation (five per cent) – are headquartered.
“Each of these markets has historical demand for LNG and that demand will continue to grow in the coming decades,” he says, adding that LNG in Asia can be used for power generation and heavy industry, and to reduce air pollution from coal-fired power.
Overall, generating electricity in China with LNG from Canada rather than coal could reduce emissions by up to 62 per cent, according to a 2020 study published in the Journal for Cleaner Production.
A 2022 study by Wood Mackenzie found that growing Canada’s LNG industry could reduce net emissions in Asia by 188 million tonnes per year through 2050.
Canadian Energy Centre
RBC says Canada’s Indigenous owned energy projects are ‘economic reconciliation in action’

Eva Clayton, back left, President of the Nisga’a Lisims Government (joint venture owner of the proposed Ksi Lisims LNG project), Crystal Smith, back right, Haisla Nation Chief Councillor (joint venture owner of the Cedar LNG project, now under construction), and Karen Ogen, front right, CEO of the First Nations Natural Gas Alliance pose for a photograph on the HaiSea Wamis zero-emission tugboat outside the LNG2023 conference, in Vancouver, B.C., Monday, July 10, 2023. CP Images photo
From the Canadian Energy Centre
As construction gets underway on Cedar LNG, the world’s first Indigenous majority-owned LNG export terminal, a report from RBC highlights the project as a model of successful energy development in Canada.
“We broke a pattern that had existed for over a century,” said Karen Ogen, CEO of the First Nations Natural Gas Alliance.
“First Nations have been at the heart of the LNG opportunity, not on the sidelines or just on the job sites but in the boardrooms helping to make it happen.”
RBC said the Cedar LNG project in Kitimat, B.C. – a partnership between the Haisla Nation (50.1 per cent) and Pembina Pipeline Corporation (49.9 per cent) – is a model for Indigenous economic reconciliation in action.
“Canada’s future growth and prosperity depends heavily on getting Indigenous economic reconciliation right,” said report co-author Varun Srivatsan, RBC’s director of policy and strategic engagement.
“If not, the country’s ability to diversify our resource exports, enjoy independence and resiliency in strategic sectors, and improve productivity, which has lagged that of other countries for years, are all at risk.”
RBC outlined the enormous potential of Indigenous-led energy projects to drive economic growth.
Almost three-quarters of the 504 major resource and energy projects planned or underway in Canada run through or are within 20 kilometres of Indigenous territories.
The value of Indigenous equity opportunity from these projects is estimated at $98 billion over the next 10 years, with oil and gas projects dominating the list at $57.6 billion.
“It’s clear that First Nations are critical to LNG in Canada. It’s First Nations territory from where the gas is extracted in Treaty 8 territory, it’s First Nations territory across which gas is transported via pipeline, it’s First Nations territory where LNG terminals are located, and it’s First Nations waters through which carriers take LNG to market. This is why we say Canadian LNG is Indigenous LNG. And we are going to make history,” Ogen said.
Cedar LNG reached a final investment decision last June, following a permitting process that saw the Haisla Nation directly involved in planning the facilities and operations.
This includes a floating LNG terminal with emissions among the world’s lowest, at 0.08 per cent CO2 equivalent per tonne of LNG compared to the global average of 0.35 per cent. Operations are slated to start in late 2028.
“Our community felt it was important that our values of being Haisla, being Indigenous, were felt through every decision that was being made. That is what makes this project unique,” said Crystal Smith, the Haisla Nation’s elected chief councillor.
Central to the Haisla’s involvement in Cedar LNG are the jobs and ongoing revenues that benefit the nation and neighbouring communities.
This has included support for education and cultural programs and building a state-of-the-art health facility and a new housing development.
“Cedar LNG shows what is achievable when you have a shared vision,” Smith said.
“It is going to mean that my kids and grandkids have a different future from what I or anybody in my generation have experienced in our community. It is going to revive our culture, revive our language, and make us stronger going forward.”
Alberta
As LNG opens new markets for Canadian natural gas, reliance on U.S. to decline: analyst

From The Canadian Energy Centre
By Cody Ciona
Starting with LNG Canada, producers will finally have access to new customers overseas
Canada’s natural gas production and exports are primed for growth as LNG projects come online, according to Houston, Texas-based consultancy RBN Energy.
Long-awaited LNG export terminals will open the door to Asian markets and break the decades-long grip of the United States as the sole customer for Canada’s natural gas.
RBN projects that Canada’s natural gas exports will rise to 12 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) by 2034, up from about 8 bcf/d today. But as more LNG terminals come online, less of that natural gas will head south.
“We think the real possibility exists that the amount of natural gas being exported to the United States by pipeline will actually decline,” said Martin King, RBN’s managing director of North America energy market analysis, on a recent webinar.
RBN’s analysis suggests that Canada’s natural gas exports to the United States could drop to 6 bcf/d by the early 2030s compared to around 8 bcf/d today.
With the first cargo from the LNG Canada terminal at Kitimat, B.C. expected to ship in late June, Canada will finally have access to new markets for natural gas. The first phase of the project will have capacity to ship about 1.8 bcf/d.
And more projects are on the way.
LNG Canada’s joint venture partners are considering a second phase that would double export capacity.
Also at Kitimat, the Cedar LNG project is under construction and is expected to be completed in 2028. The floating terminal led by the Haisla Nation will have capacity to export 0.4 bcf/d.
Woodfibre LNG, located near Squamish, B.C. began construction in late 2023 and is expected to be substantially completed by 2027, with export capacity of about 0.3 bcf/d.
Expansions of LNG Canada and Cedar LNG could put LNG exports into the range of 5 bcf/d in the early 2030s, King said.
-
Brownstone Institute15 hours ago
Anthony Fauci Gets Demolished by White House in New Covid Update
-
Business16 hours ago
Sobering reality check – Trump is right: Canada’s economy can’t survive a fair trade agreement with the US
-
Fraser Institute18 hours ago
Declining stature of foreign affairs minister underscores Canada’s waning influence on world stage
-
Business17 hours ago
Ottawa must listen to the West
-
Crime14 hours ago
Mexican Cartels Expanding Operations in Canada, Using Indigenous Reserves as Factory Hubs
-
Automotive3 hours ago
Canada’s EV house of cards is close to collapsing
-
Alberta2 days ago
Alberta’s Environmental Changemakers Shine at the 2025 Emerald Awards
-
Banks2 days ago
Liberal border bill could usher in cashless economy by outlawing cash payments