Canadian Energy Centre
Analyst says LNG Canada likely to start exports before year-end
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Welders with JGC-Fluor following completion of the final weld on the first production train at the LNG Canada project, in Kitimat, B.C. in July 2024. Since construction began in 2018, upwards of 380 pipe welders have worked on the LNG Canada project. Photo courtesy JGC-Fluor
From the Canadian Energy Centre
By Will Gibson
Canada’s first liquefied natural gas export terminal ‘on the cusp’ of its testing phase
Momentum is building for the long-awaited start-up of Canada’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project.
Shipments from the LNG Canada terminal at Kitimat, B.C. may now start earlier than expected, later this year rather than mid-2025, according to Martin King, Canadian energy specialist with Houston-based RBN Energy.
“LNG Canada appears to be on the cusp of its testing phase and is likely to be exporting some cargoes of LNG before the end of this year,” King wrote recently.
He made the prediction after a senior executive with Shell, the project’s lead owner, said it could deliver its first cargo earlier than previously planned, in the wake of two key milestones.
Fluor reported in July it had completed the final weld on the first production train while Petronas, which holds a 25 per cent stake in LNG Canada, announced it would add three LNG vessels to its North American fleet, doubling its size.
A longtime industry insider sees the $18 billion LNG Canada terminal as a game changer.
“This is decades in the making. Canada has been trying to get its LNG business up and running since the 1970s but it has been sidetracked for one reason or another,” says Calgary-based consultant Racim Gribaa, who has worked in the industry for more than 25 years.
“This project is perfectly placed to take advantage of an awesome opportunity given the demand for LNG worldwide is growing exponentially.”
The project, which will use the Coastal GasLink pipeline, completed in November 2023, to bring gas from northeastern British Columbia to the Kitimat terminal for processing and shipping, will have capacity to produce up to 14 million tonnes per year in its first phase.
While that’s a fraction of the 404 million tonnes of global demand in 2023, Gribaa says Asian buyers view LNG Canada as secure supplier in part due to its geography.
“The closest point to Asia is Canada’s west coast, so you have the shortest shipping route, which makes for optimal transportation costs. The traders and LNG industry see it as valuable for that reason,” says Gribaa, who previously worked in LNG trade in Qatar, one of the world’s largest exporters.
And the project is coming online at a time when worldwide demand is surging.
“The worldwide demand has effectively doubled every decade since 1990, when it was 50 MPTA. We are now closing in on 500 MPTA and that is accelerating,” Gribaa says.
“The world will need 10 LNG Canadas in 10 years and 100 more LNG Canadas in the next 30 years.”
The project has plans for a second phase that would double production to 28 million tonnes per year. Based on demand, Gribaa says “the question isn’t if it will go forward, it’s when the consortium will announce the expansion.”
World LNG demand growth will be particularly strong in Asia, where Shell’s four LNG Canada partners – Petronas (25 per cent), PetroChina (15 per cent), Mitsubishi (15 per cent) and Korea Gas Corporation (five per cent) – are headquartered.
“Each of these markets has historical demand for LNG and that demand will continue to grow in the coming decades,” he says, adding that LNG in Asia can be used for power generation and heavy industry, and to reduce air pollution from coal-fired power.
Overall, generating electricity in China with LNG from Canada rather than coal could reduce emissions by up to 62 per cent, according to a 2020 study published in the Journal for Cleaner Production.
A 2022 study by Wood Mackenzie found that growing Canada’s LNG industry could reduce net emissions in Asia by 188 million tonnes per year through 2050.
Alberta
New children’s book demonstrates how the everyday world is connected to natural resources
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From the Canadian Energy Centre
‘Today’s youth have the opportunity to lead us into the future with innovative solutions for environmental challenges’
After a 24-year career in oil sands land reclamation, author Tanya Richens is sharing her knowledge with young minds.
Her new book, From the Earth to Us: Discovering the Origins of Everyday Things, explores the relationship between natural resources and the things we use in everyday life, from computers and water bottles to batteries and solar panels.
“There is a gap in society’s understanding of where things come from. We are a society driven by consumerism and immediate gratification. We order something online, and it arrives on our doorstep the next day. We don’t stop to think about where it really came from or how it was made,” Richens says.
“There’s an ever-increasing societal position that mining is bad, and oil is even worse… But there’s a simple hypocrisy in those beliefs, since so many things in our lives are made from the raw materials that come from mining and oil and natural gas,” she says.
The book, illustrated by reclamation artist Shannon Carla King, follows young Hennessy Rose and her Cavalier King Charles Spaniel Riley on a trip to a children’s summer camp.
Hennessy’s mom is a guest speaker on the origin of everyday items and the relationship between humans and the earth. Through detailed explanations of items surrounding her, Hennessy’s mom teaches the kids how rocks, minerals, oil and gas from the earth are used to power and aid our lives, creating items such as building supplies, food and hair products, camping and sports equipment, and cell phones.
Author Tanya Richens poses with her two books for children about natural resources. Photo for Canadian Energy Centre
“I thought a simple and fun book explaining the raw materials needed to make everyday items would be valuable for all ages,” Richens says.
“When people feel personally connected to natural resources, they are more likely to promote sustainable practices. Today’s youth will have the opportunity to lead us into the future with innovative solutions for environmental challenges.”
Richens‘ career began with Alberta Environment, where she was a coordinator of reclamation approvals in the oil sands. She oversaw technical reviews of oil sands reclamation applications, communicated with statement of concern filers, coordinated public hearings and provided support for legislative changes.
She moved from government to Suncor Energy, ensuring the company’s compliance on reclamation projects and led initiatives to obtain reclamation certificates. She now works as an independent consultant.
Drawing on her wealth of experience in the field, Richens’ first book, Adventures in Land Reclamation: Exploring Jobs for a Greener Future, seeks to excite kids aged 9-12 years about jobs related to the environment and land reclamation.
Hoping to get From the Earth to Us into the hands of teachers, Richens is heading to the Edmonton Teachers Convention in late February. She says the book supports multiple learning outcomes in Alberta’s new science curriculum for grades 3, 4, 5 and 6.
“Ultimately, I’d like people to understand and acknowledge their individual part in the need for mining and oil and natural gas development. Until the naivety and hypocrisy in the world is addressed, I’m not sure that real environmental change is possible.”
Richens’ books can be purchased on her website at tcrenvironmental.com.
Alberta
U.S. tariffs or not, Canada needs to build new oil and gas pipeline space fast
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From the Canadian Energy Centre
Expansion work underway takes on greater importance amid trade dispute
Last April, as the frozen landscape began its spring thaw, a 23-kilometre stretch of newly built pipeline started moving natural gas across northwest Alberta.
There was no fanfare when this small extension of TC Energy’s Nova Gas Transmission Limited (NGTL) system went online – adding room for more gas than all the homes in Calgary use every day.
It’s part of the ongoing expansion of the NGTL system, which connects natural gas from British Columbia and Alberta to the vast TC Energy network. In fact, one in every 10 molecules of natural gas moved across North America touches NGTL.
With new uncertainty emerging from Canada’s biggest oil and gas customer – the United States – there is a rallying cry to get new major pipelines built to reach across Canada and to wider markets.
Canada’s Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson recently said the country should consider building a new west-east oil pipeline following U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs, calling the current lack of cross-country pipelines a “vulnerability,” CBC reported.
“I think we need to reflect on that,” Wilkinson said. “That creates some degree of uncertainty. I think, in that context, we will as a country want to have some conversations about infrastructure that provides greater security for us.”
Many industry experts see the threat to Canada’s economy as a wake-up call for national competitiveness, arguing to keep up the momentum following the long-awaited completion of two massive pipelines across British Columbia over the last 18 months. Both of which took more than a decade to build amidst political turmoil, regulatory hurdles, activist opposition and huge cost overruns.
On May 1, 2024, the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion (TMX) started delivering crude oil to the West Coast, providing a much-needed outlet for Alberta’s growing oil production.
Several months before that, TC Energy finished work on the 670-kilometre Coastal Gaslink pipeline, which provides the first direct path for Canadian natural gas to reach international markets when the LNG Canada export terminal in Kitimat begins operating later this year.
TMX and Coastal GasLink provide enormous benefits for the Canadian economy, but neither are sufficient to meet the long-term growth of oil and gas production in Western Canada.
More oil pipeline capacity needed soon
TMX added 590,000 barrels per day of pipeline capacity, nearly tripling the volume of crude reaching the West Coast where it can be shipped to international markets.
In less than a year, the extra capacity has enabled Canadian oil production to reach all-time highs of more than five million barrels per day.
More oil reaching tidewater has also shrunk the traditional discount on Alberta’s heavy oil, generating an extra $10 billion in revenues, while crude oil exports to Asia have surged from $49 million in 2023 to $3.6 billion in 2024, according to ATB analyst Mark Parsons.
With oil production continuing to grow, the need for more pipeline space could return as soon as next year, according to analysts and major pipeline operators.
Even shortly after TMX began operation, S&P Global analysts Celina Hwang and Kevin Birn warned that “by early 2026, we forecast the need for further export capacity to ensure that the system remains balanced on pipeline economics.”
Pipeline owners are hoping to get ahead of another oil glut, with plans to expand existing systems already underway.
Trans Mountain vice-president Jason Balasch told Reuters the company is looking at projects that could add up to 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) of capacity within the next five years.
Meanwhile, Canada’s biggest oil pipeline company is working with Alberta’s government and other customers to expand its major export pipelines as part of the province’s plan to double crude production in the coming years.
Enbridge expects it can add as much as 300,000 bpd of capacity out of Western Canada by 2028 through optimization of its Mainline system and U.S. market access pipelines.
Enbridge spokesperson Gina Sutherland said the company can add capacity in a number of ways including system optimizations and the use of so-called drag reducing agents, which allow more fluid to flow by reducing turbulence.
LNG and electricity drive strong demand for natural gas
Growing global demand for energy also presents enormous opportunities for Canada’s natural gas industry, which also requires new transportation infrastructure to keep pace with demand at home and abroad.
The first phase of the LNG Canada export terminal is expected to begin shipping 1.8 billion cubic feet of gas per day (Bcf/d) later this year, spurring the first big step in an expected 30 per cent increase in gas production in Western Canada over the next decade.
With additional LNG projects in development and demand increasing, the spiderweb of pipes that gathers Alberta and B.C.’s abundant gas supplies need to continue to grow.
TC Energy CEO Francois Poirier is “very bullish” about the prosect of building a second phase of the recently completed Coastal GasLink pipeline connecting natural gas in northeast B.C. to LNG terminals on the coast at Kitimat.
The company is also continuously expanding NGTL, which transports about 80 per cent of Western Canada’s production, with more than $3 billion in growth projects planned by 2030 to add another 1 Bcf/d of capacity.
Meanwhile Enbridge sees about $7 billion in future growth opportunities on its natural gas system in British Columbia.
In addition to burgeoning LNG exports from Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, TC Energy sees huge potential for gas to continue replacing coal-fired electricity generation, especially as a boom in power-hunger data centres unfolds.
With such strong prospects for North America’s highly integrated energy system, Poirier recently argued in the Wall Street Journal that leaders should be focused on finding common ground for energy in the current trade dispute.
“Our collective strength on energy provides a chance to expand our economies, advance national security and reduce global emissions,“ he wrote in a Feb. 3 OpEd.
“By working together across North America and supporting the free flow of energy throughout the continent, we can achieve energy security, affordability and reliability more effectively than any country could achieve on its own.”
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