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Alberta

Alberta’s financial update one for the ages – Historical investments in savings and debt reduction on the way

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Q1 update: Paying down debt and saving for the future

Strong economic activity this year will see Alberta make historic investments in savings and debt reduction.

High revenue forecast for bitumen royalties, other resource revenue and corporate income taxes have increased the province’s forecast surplus to $13.2 billion for 2022-23.

This year’s surplus enables the government to make the largest single-year debt repayment in Alberta’s history, repaying $13.4 billion in debt that comes due this fiscal year. The government will also allocate $5.2 billion to debt coming due in 2023-24.

The government will make the largest ever single-year investment in the Heritage Fund, retaining the fund’s remaining 2021-22 net investment income of $1.2 billion and allocating $1.7 billion, for a total investment of $2.9 billion. This is over and above the $705 million retained for inflation-proofing last year.

“Alberta’s commitment to fiscal discipline and our unrelenting focus on economic growth has helped bring about an extraordinary turnaround in our financial situation. We promised Albertans we would get our fiscal house in order and that’s exactly what we’ve done. Now, we’re paying down debt so future generations won’t have to, saving more for a rainy day, and putting more money in Albertans’ pockets.”

Jason Kenney, Premier

“For too long, governments in Alberta refused to exercise fiscal discipline during boom times. Those days are over. Alberta’s government is making the prudent decision to save and invest surplus revenues so future generations can benefit from the prosperity of today.”

Jason Nixon, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance

Indexing personal income taxes

The province is fulfilling a commitment made in 2019 to index personal income taxes to inflation, retroactive to the 2022 tax year. The basic personal tax amount is rising to $19,814 and will rise again in 2023.

An additional 80,000 to 95,000 Albertans will pay no provincial personal income tax by 2023, on top of the approximately 1.3 million tax filers who already pay no provincial personal income tax.

Many Albertans will first see the benefit of indexation through lower tax withholdings on their first paycheques of 2023. In addition, since indexation will resume for 2022, Albertans will receive larger refunds or owe less tax when they file their 2022 tax returns in spring 2023. In total, resuming indexation for 2022 and subsequent years will save Albertans an estimated $304 million in 2022-23, $680 million in 2023-24 and $980 million in 2024-25.

Indexing personal income taxes to inflation will contribute further to Alberta’s strong tax advantage: Albertans already pay less in overall taxes, with no PST, no payroll tax and no health premiums.

Alberta’s government has already introduced some of the most generous measures to keep more money in the pockets of Albertans, committing $2.4 billion in relief for rising prices, inflation and cost of living, including:

  • Providing $300 in relief for 1.9 million homeowners, business operators and farmers over six months through the Electricity Rebate Program.
  • Eliminating the 13-cent-per-litre provincial fuel tax until at least the end of September.
  • Helping school authorities cover high fuel costs for buses under the Fuel Price Contingency Program.
  • Providing natural gas rebates from October 2022 to March 2023 to shield consumers from natural gas price spikes.
  • Maintaining Alberta senior benefits for those over 75 years of age, exempting them from the Federal Old Age Security increase.

Other economic growth indicators

Momentum has picked up in Alberta’s labour market. The province has added 68,200 jobs since the beginning of the year and most industries have surpassed employment levels from early 2020, before the pandemic first took hold of the province. Alberta’s unemployment rate fell to 4.8 per cent, the lowest since early 2015. In response to these positive developments, the province has revised its forecast for employment growth to 5.3 per cent, up from 4.1 per cent at budget. The unemployment rate has also been revised down to 5.9 per cent in 2022 from the budget forecast of 6.6 per cent.

Business output has surged in the province on the back of higher demand and prices. While energy products have led the increase, there have been gains across most industries including chemical and forestry products, food manufacturing and machinery. Merchandise exports have risen more than 60 per cent so far this year, while manufacturing shipments are up over 30 per cent.

Higher energy prices are boosting revenues and spending in the oil and gas sector. Strong drilling activity has lifted crude oil production to 3.6 million barrels per day so far this year and is expected to reach a record high this year. Outside the oil and gas sector, companies are proceeding with investment plans, buoyed by solid corporate profits.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 4.9 per cent in 2022. This is down slightly from the budget forecast of 5.4 per cent, reflecting softer expectations for growth in consumer spending and residential investment as a result of higher inflation and interest rates. Even so, real GDP is expected to fully recover from the COVID-19 downturn and surpass the 2014 peak for the first time this year. Private sector forecasters are expecting Alberta to have among the highest economic growth in the country this year and in 2023.

Quick facts

  • The surplus for 2022-23 is forecast at $13.2 billion, $12.6 billion more than what was estimated in Budget 2022.
  • The revenue forecast for 2022-23 is $75.9 billion, $13.3 billion higher than reported in the budget.
    • Non-renewable resource revenue is forecast at $28.4 billion in 2022-23, up $14.6 billion from budget’s $13.8 billion forecast.
    • Corporate income taxes are up $2 billion from the budget, with a new forecast of $6.1 billion for 2022-23.
    • Revenue from personal income taxes is forecast to be $13.3 billion in 2022-23, down $116 million from budget. Indexation of the personal income tax system, retroactive to Jan. 1, 2022, is forecast to lower revenue by $304 million. This is partially offset by increased revenue from rising primary household income.
  • Total expense is forecast at $62.7 billion, up slightly from the $62.1 billion estimated at budget.
    • Education is receiving an extra $52 million to support the new teachers agreement and to help school authorities pay for bus fuel.
    • $279 million the province received from the federal government for the Site Rehabilitation Program is being spent this year instead of next year.
    • $277 million is needed to cover the cost of selling oil due to higher prices and volumes.
  • The Capital Plan in 2022-23 has increased by $389 million mainly due to carry-over of unspent funds from last fiscal year and an increase of $78 million for highway expansion.
  • Taxpayer-supported debt is forecast at $79.8 billion on March 31, 2023, which is $10.4 billion lower than estimated in the budget.
  • The net debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated at 10.3 per cent for the end of the fiscal year.

This is a news release from the Government of Alberta.

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Alberta

Low oil prices could have big consequences for Alberta’s finances

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From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

Amid the tariff war, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil—a common benchmark—recently dropped below US$60 per barrel. Given every $1 drop in oil prices is an estimated $750 million hit to provincial revenues, if oil prices remain low for long, there could be big implications for Alberta’s budget.

The Smith government already projects a $5.2 billion budget deficit in 2025/26 with continued deficits over the following two years. This year’s deficit is based on oil prices averaging US$68.00 per barrel. While the budget does include a $4 billion “contingency” for unforeseen events, given the economic and fiscal impact of Trump’s tariffs, it could quickly be eaten up.

Budget deficits come with costs for Albertans, who will already pay a projected $600 each in provincial government debt interest in 2025/26. That’s money that could have gone towards health care and education, or even tax relief.

Unfortunately, this is all part of the resource revenue rollercoaster that’s are all too familiar to Albertans.

Resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is inherently volatile. In the last 10 years alone, it has been as high as $25.2 billion in 2022/23 and as low as $2.8 billion in 2015/16. The provincial government typically enjoys budget surpluses—and increases government spending—when oil prices and resource revenue is relatively high, but is thrown into deficits when resource revenues inevitably fall.

Fortunately, the Smith government can mitigate this volatility.

The key is limiting the level of resource revenue included in the budget to a set stable amount. Any resource revenue above that stable amount is automatically saved in a rainy-day fund to be withdrawn to maintain that stable amount in the budget during years of relatively low resource revenue. The logic is simple: save during the good times so you can weather the storm during bad times.

Indeed, if the Smith government had created a rainy-day account in 2023, for example, it could have already built up a sizeable fund to help stabilize the budget when resource revenue declines. While the Smith government has deposited some money in the Heritage Fund in recent years, it has not created a dedicated rainy-day account or introduced a similar mechanism to help stabilize provincial finances.

Limiting the amount of resource revenue in the budget, particularly during times of relatively high resource revenue, also tempers demand for higher spending, which is only fiscally sustainable with permanently high resource revenues. In other words, if the government creates a rainy-day account, spending would become more closely align with stable ongoing levels of revenue.

And it’s not too late. To end the boom-bust cycle and finally help stabilize provincial finances, the Smith government should create a rainy-day account.

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Alberta

Governments in Alberta should spur homebuilding amid population explosion

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From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill and Austin Thompson

In 2024, construction started on 47,827 housing units—the most since 48,336 units in 2007 when population growth was less than half of what it was in 2024.

Alberta has long been viewed as an oasis in Canada’s overheated housing market—a refuge for Canadians priced out of high-cost centres such as Vancouver and Toronto. But the oasis is starting to dry up. House prices and rents in the province have spiked by about one-third since the start of the pandemic. According to a recent Maru poll, more than 70 per cent of Calgarians and Edmontonians doubt they will ever be able to afford a home in their city. Which raises the question: how much longer can this go on?

Alberta’s housing affordability problem reflects a simple reality—not enough homes have been built to accommodate the province’s growing population. The result? More Albertans competing for the same homes and rental units, pushing prices higher.

Population growth has always been volatile in Alberta, but the recent surge, fuelled by record levels of immigration, is unprecedented. Alberta has set new population growth records every year since 2022, culminating in the largest-ever increase of 186,704 new residents in 2024—nearly 70 per cent more than the largest pre-pandemic increase in 2013.

Homebuilding has increased, but not enough to keep pace with the rise in population. In 2024, construction started on 47,827 housing units—the most since 48,336 units in 2007 when population growth was less than half of what it was in 2024.

Moreover, from 1972 to 2019, Alberta added 2.1 new residents (on average) for every housing unit started compared to 3.9 new residents for every housing unit started in 2024. Put differently, today nearly twice as many new residents are potentially competing for each new home compared to historical norms.

While Alberta attracts more Canadians from other provinces than any other province, federal immigration and residency policies drive Alberta’s population growth. So while the provincial government has little control over its population growth, provincial and municipal governments can affect the pace of homebuilding.

For example, recent provincial amendments to the city charters in Calgary and Edmonton have helped standardize building codes, which should minimize cost and complexity for builders who operate across different jurisdictions. Municipal zoning reforms in CalgaryEdmonton and Red Deer have made it easier to build higher-density housing, and Lethbridge and Medicine Hat may soon follow suit. These changes should make it easier and faster to build homes, helping Alberta maintain some of the least restrictive building rules and quickest approval timelines in Canada.

There is, however, room for improvement. Policymakers at both the provincial and municipal level should streamline rules for building, reduce regulatory uncertainty and development costs, and shorten timelines for permit approvals. Calgary, for instance, imposes fees on developers to fund a wide array of public infrastructure—including roads, sewers, libraries, even buses—while Edmonton currently only imposes fees to fund the construction of new firehalls.

It’s difficult to say how long Alberta’s housing affordability woes will endure, but the situation is unlikely to improve unless homebuilding increases, spurred by government policies that facilitate more development.

Tegan Hill

Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute

Austin Thompson

Senior Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute
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