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Alberta VS Ottawa? These are the approaches of four leading candidates

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No matter who wins the UCP Leadership race, you can count on a turbulent relationship with Ottawa.  Albertans have long had issues with how the Liberal government stifles the critical Oil and Gas industry.  Now Alberta’s farmers are finding out what that feels like, as the federal government is introducing measures to reduce the amount of nitrogen fertilizer they use.

To add to the level of animosity between the two governments, a growing number of Alberta UCP supporters are voicing dissatisfaction over Covid restrictions and mandates.  This group is active politically, and seems to be rallying behind frontrunner Daniel Smith and likeminded Todd Loewen.  The idea is to avoid future restrictions and mandates provincially, and stand up against any federal measures.

It’s no coincidence then, that the leading candidates in the UCP race all have strong platform initiatives to stand up to Ottawa.  Here’s what they look like, beginning with Danielle Smith’s “Alberta Sovereignty Act.

Danielle Smith – Alberta Sovereignty Act

It is clear that my proposed Alberta Sovereignty Act has thus far been the central issue of the UCP leadership campaign. Tens of thousands of Albertans have embraced the idea of actually standing up to Ottawa’s attacks against us, rather than usual ineffective letter writing campaigns and complaining.

It’s been both exciting and heartwarming to see hope restored to so many in our Province, and I want them to know how much their faith and confidence in this initiative strengthen my personal resolve to see it through.

Unsurprisingly, many in the media and establishment do not support the Alberta Sovereignty Act and have turned to the tried and tested methods of fearmongering and disinformation to discredit the idea. Unfortunately, some of my fellow UCP candidates may have fallen into their trap.

My hope in releasing this FAQ sheet on the Alberta Sovereignty Act, is that more Albertans and MLAs will take a thoughtful look at this policy, and join the growing majority of Albertans who want to see us stand up to Ottawa, restore our constitutional rights, and take control of our future in this manner.

I am sincerely looking forward to implementing this critically important piece of legislation together.

– Danielle Smith

What is the Alberta Sovereignty Act?

A proposed provincial law that would affirm the authority of the Provincial Legislature to refuse enforcement of any Federal law or policy that violates the jurisdictional rights of Alberta under Sections 92 – 95 of the Constitution or that breaches the Charter Rights of Albertans.

How will it be used?

When the Federal Government institutes a law or policy that appears to violate the constitution or Charter, the Government of Alberta may introduce a Special Motion for a free vote of all MLAs in the Legislature. The Special Motion would include the following:

1. Identification of the Federal law or policy that it deems to be in violation of the Constitution

2. An Outline of the specific harms that violation of the Constitution imposes on the citizens of Alberta

3. Description of the specific actions the Province will take to refuse the enforcement of that Federal law or policy in Alberta

4. A Declaration that by authority of the Alberta Sovereignty Act and notwithstanding the specific Federal law or policy in question, it shall not be enforced by the Provincial Government within Alberta in the manner outlined by the Special Motion

5. Imposition a specific time frame (no more than 24 months) by which the Special Motion will be reviewed in the Legislature

Will a Premier or Governing Party be able to refuse enforcement of any Federal Law or Policy they don’t like?

No, the Alberta Sovereignty Act may not be used unless specifically authorized by way of a free vote of all elected MLAs in the Alberta Legislature, as explained above.

What examples of Federal Laws will the Alberta Sovereignty Act be applied to?

Examples could include:

– Federal mandatory vaccination policies – Charter violation

– Use of Emergencies Act to jail & freeze accounts of peaceful protesters – Charter violation

– Bill C-69 ‘No New Pipelines’ Law – found unconstitutional by Alberta Court of Appeal

– Mandatory cuts to fertilizer use by Alberta Farmers – violation of s.95

– Mandatory emissions and production cuts to Alberta energy projects – violation of s.92A

– Federal gun grabs – violation of s.92(13)

Is the Alberta Sovereignty Act about Separation from Canada?

No, the entire objective of the Alberta Sovereignty Act is to assert Alberta’s Constitutional Rights within Canada to the furthest extent possible by effectively governing itself as a Nation within a Nation, just as Quebec has done for decades and as Saskatchewan is also now considering.

If anything, the restoration of provincial rights and autonomy of every province from the destructive overreach of Ottawa is likely the only viable way for Canada to survive and flourish into the future. Ottawa’s “divide, control and conquer’ policies have Canada on a path of division and disunity. Alberta can and must lead on this issue going forward.

Is the Alberta Sovereignty Act illegal or does it run contrary to the rule of law?

No, just the opposite.

Over the last several years the Federal Government has triggered a constitutional crisis through repeated lawless attacks on provincial constitutional rights and the Charter.

The Trudeau Government has effectively imposed economic sanctions against Alberta (and parts of Saskatchewan and BC) that have resulted in economic chaos.

Hundreds of billions in investment and tax revenues, and hundreds of thousands of jobs, have been lost to these sanctions as investors around the world find it too risky to do business in Alberta’s energy industry. In fact, no new major development of our world class oil sands has been commenced in almost 20 years as a result.

The idea expressed by some UCP leadership candidates that the Alberta Sovereignty Act would “cause chaos” in the markets is naive in the extreme. The “chaos” is already here and has been caused by both Ottawa’s unlawful policies and an utter lack of provincial leadership on effectively pushing back against those attacks.

The fact is the Alberta Sovereignty Act reimposes constitutional rule of law on a lawless Ottawa by reaffirming the critical import of respecting the powers and jurisdiction of the Provinces under the Canadian Constitution.

 

Brian Jean – Autonomy For Albertans Act

I started with policies designed to change how Alberta reacts to the federal government and Canada. I want us to stop being defensive and go on the offensive. We have to stop covering up and we have to take the fight to Canada. 

The five sets of actions that will protect and enhance Alberta’s Autonomy Within Canada are:

  1. Serve legal notice invoking section 46 of the Constitution and force Trudeau and the Premiers into negotiations.
  2. Stipulate that Alberta government-funded groups will not be able to participate in the WEF.
  3. Use the courts to challenge the tanker ban, the proposed oil production caps, and the fertilizer caps.
  4. Demand the Quebec government stop taking the assets of Alberta energy companies in Quebec and get their attention by acting against SNC Lavalin.
  5. Demand that Alberta be given Canada’s seat on important international energy institutions, just like Quebec gets Canada’s seat at UN cultural institutions.
These actions and this approach is very different than how Alberta has traditionally acted. This is very different from what the other leadership candidates are proposing. First this is about acting, about doing something. The “Alberta Sovereignty Act” proposal is purely defensive and reactive. Instead of saying to Canada “we won’t enforce your rules if you come after us,” I am saying that we need to take the initiative.
The Constitution has not been opened in 30 years.
My proposals are about taking ACTION and going on the offense. Danielle Smith proposes a purely defensive strategy that surrenders on past fights. Travis Toews has no strategy at all in this area — he wants to continue Jason Kenney’s practice of writing stern and meaningless letters whenever we get stepped on.
When we open the Constitution, we can deal with the issues of: pipelines and right-of-ways, access to tidewater, stopping provinces and the federal government from landlocking provinces, and democratic under-representation. Taking the fight to the rest of Canada is the way to actually get results and reverse the damage.
Passing an unconstitutional “Sovereignty Act” that only kicks in the next time we are punched doesn’t change anything. It will likely encourage Trudeau to hit Alberta harder.
Fighting the efforts of the World Economic Forum to change our society is something Alberta should have been doing all along.
No $$ to WEF
As is using the courts intelligently including as a way to get expert testimony into the record in important legal debates. 
Fight the tanker ban, the production caps, and the fertilizer caps
Fighting back against the insults of Quebec and the federal government should have always been our policy. Instead under Jason Kenney we too often gave away things hoping that other provinces would return the favour. They did not.
We play tit for tat with Quebec.
Finally, we should learn from Quebec and have our position in the world recognized by Canada. Alberta is an energy superpower and it should own Canada’s seat at the global table whenever energy issues are discussed. 
We get the Energy seat.

Travis Toews – Toews’ Strategy to Strengthen Alberta

I’m running to ensure our children and grandchildren have the same kind of opportunities and freedoms that Kim and I have been blessed with.

We must strengthen Alberta’s place in Canada and win meaningful reforms. Threats and sternly worded letters aren’t enough, and radical actions that create chaos will only set us back.

I have a real plan that uses our economic and fiscal strength to our advantage. A plan that is strategic. A plan that will get us results.

Here’s my plan to strengthen Alberta:

1. REFORM EQUALIZATION AND FISCAL STABILIZATION.

  • The Fiscal Stabilization program supports provinces experiencing a sudden drop in revenue. These stabilization payments are capped at a low level. As Finance Minister, I led negotiations to raise the cap by $500 million for Albertans. I will continue working to increase this cap.
  • The equalization formula expires in 2024 and I’ll fight to ensure it is renegotiated for fairness, rather than simply being renewed like it was in 2014 and 2019.

2. LAY THE GROUNDWORK AND BUILD SUPPORT AMONG ALBERTANS TO OPT-IN TO AN ALBERTA PENSION PLAN.

  • I’ve always believed that an Alberta Pension Plan holds great promise for Albertans. As Finance Minister, this file was on my desk and I’m convinced an Alberta Pension Plan is an incredible opportunity for the province. If we’re going to win on this critical opportunity, it must be handled strategically in methodology, approach, and timing. We can’t afford to lose, and if this is not done right, we could lose this transformative opportunity for future generations.
  • I will make the case with Albertans for a provincial pension plan. I’m confident we will see this is a transformative opportunity for us to gain autonomy, lower premiums, increase pension benefits, boost our financial sector, and have a more reliable pension long-term.

3. SHIFT TAX POWER FROM THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS. 

  • I’ll work with other Premiers to shift the tax power from the federal government to provincial governments. This allows provinces to have the tax capacity to deliver services like childcare, pharma care, and dental care. It would provide Albertans with more autonomy, and make it easier for us to deliver high quality services to all Albertans while balancing the budget.

4. DEFEND AND ADVANCE ALBERTA’S KEY ECONOMIC SECTORS LIKE ENERGY AND AGRICULTURE.

  • Energy and agriculture are the lifeblood of many Alberta communities. My wife Kim and I know this well from our ranching operation and oilfield service company.
  • To back Alberta’s energy and agricultural sectors against Ottawa’s targeted attacks, as Premier I would:
    • Pass enabling legislation so that when Ottawa attacks Alberta’s economy we have a potential suite of targeted levies on goods and contracts we can begin to apply and escalate as needed.
    • Use my experience as an international trade negotiator to lead on the energy file by engaging American and foreign leaders directly.
    • Continue supporting the ongoing legal challenge against C-69 the “No more pipelines act”.
    • Work with Saskatchewan and Manitoba to expand the Port of Churchill to get our energy and agriculture products to world markets.
    • Ensure Ottawa’s climate policies treat all heavy emitters equally instead of targeting Albertans. We can be environmental leaders without impoverishing our future.
    • Enhance the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation so that more Indigenous communities can be full partners in responsible prosperity.

5. EXPLORE AN ALBERTA PROVINCIAL POLICE SERVICE WITH RURAL ALBERTANS AND MUNICIPAL LEADERS.

  • Kim and I have experienced multiple thefts in our businesses over the years. I know rural crime is a large problem. I am committed to increasing safety for all Albertans by improving policing services.
  • I have deep respect for the RCMP and the work they do to provide safety to Albertans. I also believe there is merit in exploring a provincial police service. This could reduce bureaucracy and lead to an improved culture in the policing service.
  • This is not a policy I would implement on day one. Before moving forward, I would ensure rural Albertans and municipal leaders ultimately support the decision.

 

Rebecca Schulz – 100 DAY PROVINCIAL RIGHTS STRATEGY

A Schulz government would immediately start the 100 Day Provincial Rights Action Plan, with clear steps – and a timeline – to fight, negotiate, partner, and strengthen Alberta’s position with Confederation.

No more letters, no more panels, and no more empty threats – Albertans want action and results when it comes to defending our rights in confederation and seeing our province reach its full potential.” – Rebecca Schulz 

Within the first 10 days, a Schulz government will appoint a Deputy Premier and team with the primary focus to act as Alberta’s lead negotiators in strengthening Alberta’s position in Canada.

This will include:

  1. Presenting the federation with a package of common sense reforms on equalization, fiscal stabilization, and greater provincial control over programs through tax points
  2. Presenting the federation with a list of federal, provincial overlap in regulations/policy and begin negotiations on disentanglement
  3. Pursuing an Alberta Pension Plan, Alberta Employment Insurance and an Alberta Revenue Agency

Within the first 50 days, Schulz and the Deputy Premier would present a Provincial Rights

Framework, to identify every legal and constitutional measure possible to stand up against Ottawa’s continued attacks on provincial jurisdiction.

This will include:

  1. Calling for a Protecting Provincial Rights Summit to bring provinces to the table and identify every measure to stand up for jurisdictional rights against federal interference
  2. Continuing the fight against the Tanker Ban (C-48) and Trudeau’s No-More Pipelines legislation (C-69), alongside all 10 provinces
  3. Taking every proactive legal measure possible against Trudeau’s federal emissions and fertilizer caps.

Within the first 100 days, Schulz and the Deputy Premier would present a new Market Access Plan to create political and economic incentives for federal and provincial governments to negotiate with Alberta in good faith for improved trade and market access.

This will include:

  1. Identifying strategic actions to deter other provinces or levels of government from limiting Alberta’s market access and trade
  2. Developing criteria for when Alberta will Turn off the Taps through the Preserving Canada’s Economic Prosperity Act.

“You don’t need to spend weeks on the campaign trail to understand how frustrated Albertans are of being pushed around. The emissions and fertilizer caps are just two of the most recent examples of governments interfering with our provincial trade and prosperity. It’s about time Albertans were presented with a real plan to take action.” – Rebecca Schulz

 

After 15 years as a TV reporter with Global and CBC and as news director of RDTV in Red Deer, Duane set out on his own 2008 as a visual storyteller. During this period, he became fascinated with a burgeoning online world and how it could better serve local communities. This fascination led to Todayville, launched in 2016.

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Alberta

ATA Collect $72 Million in Dues But Couldn’t Pay Striking Teachers a Dime

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Marco Navarro-Génie's avatar Marco Navarro-Génie

They Built a Sustaining Rainbow Bureaucracy Instead of a Warchest

Alberta’s teachers walked off the job twice in a few years, which surprised anyone who still believed the old line that teachers avoid confrontation. A strike strips an organization to its essentials. It reveals whether a union carries real strength or only the appearance of it. When the Alberta Teachers’ Association entered a province-wide strike, it took on the posture of a century-old institution, but it drew on reserves of something far younger and far leaner. One question hangs in the air: How did a union that has existed since 1918 arrive at a major labour showdown with so little capacity to sustain its members?

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The answer, it turns out, is that the ATA spent a century perfecting the art of growing and protecting itself, but not the teachers who pay for it.

Early unions understood that withdrawing labour meant stepping into a void. Wages vanished at the factory door. Families survived on whatever the union could provide. From small collections grew one of the essential principles of organized labour: A union prepares for conflict by saving in peacetime. It builds the means to protect its members when negotiations break down.

When unions matured, industrial organizations built strike funds large enough to hold firm through prolonged stalemates. These reserves became equalizers. Without them, employers waited for hunger to do the work. With them, a union could bargain in earnest. Strike pay bought time. Time forced movement. Time was power.

Consider what proper unions accomplish. CUPE maintains a national strike fund holding $132.8 million as of 2023. With 650,000 members, that’s about $200 per member in reserve. CUPE pays striking workers $300 per week from day one, rising to $350 after eight weeks. OPSEU maintains a $70 million strike fund, paying $200 per week plus $50 per dependent, increasing to $300 per week at week four.

By contrast, the ATA had $25 million in its Special Emergency Fund when the recent strike began. That money lasted just over two weeks, covering member benefits, not strike pay. For a union with 51,000 members, that’s less than $500 per teacher. After those two weeks, the Association drained its general cash reserves. By the end of the three-week strike, the SEF was depleted. Compare this to CUPE’s $132 million for 650,000 members or OPSEU’s $70 million for 180,000 members, and the ATA’s inadequacy becomes stark.

A century of life gives any organization the chance to build such strength. Over decades it becomes serious. Over a century it becomes formidable. Yet when the association decided to strike on October 6, 2025, it had nothing approaching the reserve needed for a long contest. A union prepared for endurance needs a fund measured in the high tens of millions, not the low twenties. That cushion was missing.

Of course, it was missing. Building a war chest means acknowledging you might actually have to fight a war. Far safer to build a peacetime palace and hope nobody notices when the enemy arrives at the gates.

This weakness grew from the inward turn that overtakes institutions with stable revenue and public status. What begins as a tool for members becomes an organism that primarily protects itself. After the Teaching Profession Act of 1936 entrenched its place in Alberta’s landscape, the ATA expanded like any other public body—without constraint or self-examination. Staff increased. Departments multiplied. New programs became permanent fixtures. Over time, the structure thickened into bureaucracy.

Robert Michels observed more than a century ago that organizations drift toward oligarchy because staff become the custodians of continuity. Members cycle in and out. Staff remain. As this instinct grows, the organization develops a belief that its first duty is to preserve itself. The ATA is no exception. Salaries for staff, internal operations, communication units, legal services, research branches, and advocacy initiatives occupy the foreground of its budget. The association’s annual budget is approximately $50 million, with discretionary programming accounting for less than a quarter. The remainder goes to staff salaries, operations, and fixed expenditures. A strike fund becomes an afterthought. Annual fees for 2025-26 are set at $1,422 per teacher, generating roughly $72 million in yearly revenue. Where did it all go?

The ATA’s books are not open, but there is public evidence of where some spending goes. Much went to campaigns that had precious little to do with wages, benefits, or working conditions. The ATA maintains an elaborate apparatus devoted to social justice advocacy. It supports the Alberta GSA Network, produces extensive resources on sexual and gender minorities, runs a “Walking Together” reconciliation program complete with 25 Indigenous education facilitators, publishes anti-racism materials, maintains Diversity Equity Networks, and employs staff dedicated to promoting SOGI (Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity) inclusion in classrooms. When Premier Danielle Smith announced policies requiring parental notification for name and pronoun changes in schools, the ATA mobilized its complete communications apparatus to oppose the measures, with President Jason Schilling calling them “irresponsible and dangerous” and a “distraction from more important issues.” If that were so, Schilling allowed his organization to be distracted.

I am not passing judgment on whether their causes lack merit or that teachers shouldn’t care about them. That’s their business and their money. But a union exists first and foremost to protect the material interests of its members. When teachers lose a month’s salary because their union spent decades building a rainbow bureaucracy instead of a strike fund, the priorities become clear. The ATA allocated resources to produce toolkits on creating “SOGI-inclusive classrooms” and funded campaigns about transgender policy while its Special Emergency Fund remained woefully inadequate. It hired facilitators to deliver workshops on dismantling anti-Indigenous racism, but couldn’t pay striking teachers a dime. This is ideology dressed up as unionism, performance masquerading as protection.

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And here’s the greater irony: when teachers walked the picket lines, union executives kept drawing their salaries. Strike or no strike, the apparatus hummed along. The people running the ATA never missed a paycheque while the members they represent watched their bank accounts drain. In the 2025 strike, teachers lost a month’s salary. In return for this sacrifice, they gained precisely nothing. The settlement forced upon them by the government’s Back to School Act offered no improvement over what was available before they walked out. In fact, 89.5 per cent of teachers had already rejected this very offer on September 29, before the strike even began. In an era of persistent inflation, that lost income hurts. It hurt while union apparatchiks cashed their cheques on schedule.

The pattern of misplaced priorities extends beyond budgeting. When governments announce reforms, the ATA responds with press conferences, research papers, social media campaigns, and policy briefs. These are the tools of a professional bureaucracy, revolutionary in rhetoric, managerial in practice. They convey activity. They project influence. They cost a fortune. The ATA spent approximately $1.2 million on communications advocacy campaigns. Yet none of these tools matter when the government decides to hold firm during wage negotiations. Only endurance matters. Endurance rests on savings. Discipline has been scarce, but glossy newsletters have been plentiful.

The ATA fashions itself as the vanguard of progressive change, draping its pronouncements in the language of social justice and systemic transformation. It speaks like Che Guevara but budgets like a mid-tier insurance company. This is the defanged wolf: all growl, no bite. When push comes to shove, when teachers actually need material support to withstand a strike and make it count, the revolutionary rhetoric evaporates like morning dew. What remains is a comfortable administrative class that has confused advocacy theatre with actual power.

For a union that seeks to control so much of the province’s educational life, the ATA demonstrated a remarkable inability to control its own strike capacity. When the moment arrived to exercise the most fundamental power a union possesses—the withdrawal of labour—it had nothing. This is not the behaviour of a serious labour organization. This is the behaviour of a professional association that occasionally remembers it is supposed to be a union.

The ATA speaks of solidarity and resolve. It encourages teachers to show unity. It frames strikes as moral moments. It talks tough, pushed by its political branch, the NDP. Yet solidarity without resources is fragile. Resolve without savings falters when the bills arrive. A union that accepts going on strike without the means to sustain its membership hands the employer a strategic advantage from the outset. Employers read the same budgets. A union with a thin reserve can shout but cannot stand long, no matter what assurances Nenshi and their political allies make. The employer knows time will do the work. The people insulated from this reality are the NDP MLAs who cheered them on and the union administrators whose paycheques never depend on winning the fight.

It becomes difficult to tell whether the ATA has become an arm of the NDP or whether the NDP serves as the political branch of the ATA. Either way, the relationship has proven costly and fruitless. Opposition leader Naheed Nenshi stood ready with soundbites throughout the strike, encouraging teachers to hold firm while offering nothing of material value. NDP MLAs treated striking teachers and disrupted students as convenient instruments to embarrass the government, cheering on a labour action that could never succeed without the financial backing to sustain it. The enemy of your employer is not necessarily your friend. An independent union would have recognized this and built its strength accordingly, rather than spending resources and political capital on an alliance that delivers applause but not wages.

But it’s a professional association and not a conventional trade union, many will say. Members chose to strike against the leadership’s recommendations. That only seals the argument: It is an admission that the organization has no business going on strike. And if the membership voted for a strike, the leadership should have resigned. No youth leader would ever accept leading Girl Guides into a battlefield against seasoned warriors.

If the NDP functions as the political arm of the ATA, then the union has wasted considerable time and treasure on a supremely ineffective partner. A union serious about protecting its members would invest in strike capacity, not in subsidizing a moribund political movement that cannot deliver victories.

The institutional incentives explain much of this failure. Once an organization builds programs and layers of administration, cutting them becomes painful. Every department has defenders. Every initiative has champions. A strike fund has no constituency except prudence, and prudence has no allies among radicals. Prudence is no match for the seductive appeal of another communications coordinator or tattoo-covered diversity officer. Virtue-signalling solidarity wants no sacrifice. It is easier still when the people making these decisions know they will be paid regardless of whether the teachers they represent can hold out through week three of a strike.

Alberta teachers should demand clarity. They have paid dues for generations. They are told the association exists to protect them. Protection cannot be rhetorical. It must take the form of financial strength when the moment demands it. If the ATA built a bureaucracy instead of a war chest, if it prioritized the comfort of its administrative class over the security of its members, then teachers deserve that truth without varnish. They deserve to know why their union leadership never missed a meal while asking them to tighten their belts for the cause.

The defanged wolf is hurt now. It lashes out with its claws, backing recall campaigns against elected officials and organizing petitions to defund non-ATA school instruction. A Calgary high school teacher and ATA governing council representative wants to end public funding for Alberta’s independent schools, where roughly 2,000 teachers work outside ATA membership, costing the association approximately $2.84 million in foregone dues revenue annually. The petition to defund independent schools masquerades as concern for public education but reeks of institutional self-interest. Those 2,000 teachers represent nearly $3 million in annual dues that never reach ATA coffers. The defunding campaign is not about protecting students. It is about eliminating competition and conscripting teachers into membership. This is the Borg logic of an assimilating monopoly, not solidarity.

Wolves can be declawed, too. A union that cannot win at the bargaining table but insists on fighting everywhere else will find itself further diminished, further isolated, and ultimately less able to serve the teachers who still pay its bills. Vindictiveness is not a substitute for competence, and performative rage cannot replace the strength that comes from prudent preparation.

A century of dues offered the ATA a chance to build real power for its members. That chance slipped away into offices, programs, campaigns, and the salaries of people who never had to worry about surviving a strike because they were never actually on strike. The next century should begin with a different understanding of duty, rooted in prudence rather than performance, in stewardship rather than self-preservation, and in the recognition that a union leadership that doesn’t share the risks of its members has no business sending them into battle.

A defanged wolf can howl all it wants. Until it grows its teeth back, no one needs to take it seriously.

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Federal budget: It’s not easy being green

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From Resource Works

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Canada’s climate rethink signals shift from green idealism to pragmatic prosperity.

Bill Gates raised some eyebrows last week – and probably the blood pressure of climate activists – when he published a memo calling for a “strategic pivot” on climate change.

In his memo, the Microsoft founder, whose philanthropy and impact investments have focused heavily on fighting climate change, argues that, while global warming is still a long-term threat to humanity, it’s not the only one.

There are other, more urgent challenges, like poverty and disease, that also need attention, he argues, and that the solution to climate change is technology and innovation, not unaffordable and unachievable near-term net zero policies.

“Unfortunately, the doomsday outlook is causing much of the climate community to focus too much on near-term emissions goals, and it’s diverting resources from the most effective things we should be doing to improve life in a warming world,” he writes.

Gates’ memo is timely, given that world leaders are currently gathered in Brazil for the COP30 climate summit. Canada may not be the only country reconsidering things like energy policy and near-term net zero targets, if only because they are unrealistic and unaffordable.

It could give some cover for Canadian COP30 delegates, who will be at Brazil summit at a time when Prime Minister Mark Carney is renegotiating his predecessor’s platinum climate action plan for a silver one – a plan that contains fewer carbon taxes and more fossil fuels.

It is telling that Carney is not at COP30 this week, but rather holding a summit with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith.

The federal budget handed down last week contains kernels of the Carney government’s new Climate Competitiveness Strategy. It places greater emphasis on industrial strategy, investment, energy and resource development, including critical minerals mining and LNG.

Despite his Davos credentials, Carney is clearly alive to the fact it’s a different ballgame now. Canada cannot afford a hyper-focus on net zero and the green economy. It’s going to need some high octane fuel – oil, natural gas and mining – to prime Canada’s stuttering economic engine.

The prosperity promised from the green economy has not quite lived up to its billing, as a recent Fraser Institute study reveals.

Spending and tax incentives totaling $150 billion over a decade by Ottawa, B.C, Ontario, Alberta and Quebec created a meagre 68,000 jobs, the report found.

“It’s simply not big enough to make a huge difference to the overall performance of the economy,” said Jock Finlayson, chief economist for the Independent Contractors and Business Association and co-author of the report.

“If they want to turn around what I would describe as a moribund Canadian economy…they’re not going to be successful if they focus on these clean, green industries because they’re just not big enough.”

There are tentative moves in the federal budget and Climate Competitiveness Strategy to recalibrate Canada’s climate action policies, though the strategy is still very much in draft form.

Carney’s budget acknowledges that the world has changed, thanks to deglobalization and trade strife with the U.S.

“Industrial policy, once seen as secondary to market forces, is returning to the forefront,” the budget states.

Last week’s budget signals a shift from regulations towards more investment-based measures.

These measures aim to “catalyse” $500 billion in investment over five years through “strengthened industrial carbon pricing, a streamlined regulatory environment and aggressive tax incentives.”

There is, as-yet, no commitment to improve the investment landscape for Alberta’s oil industry with the three reforms that Alberta has called for: scrapping Bill C-69, a looming oil and gas emissions cap and a West Coast oil tanker moratorium, which is needed if Alberta is to get a new oil pipeline to the West Coast.

“I do think, if the Carney government is serious about Canada’s role, potentially, as an global energy superpower, and trying to increase our exports of all types of energy to offshore markets, they’re going to have to revisit those three policy files,” Finlayson said.

Heather Exner-Pirot, director of energy, natural resources and environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, said she thinks the emissions cap at least will be scrapped.

“The markets don’t lie,” she said, pointing to a post-budget boost to major Canadian energy stocks. “The energy index got a boost. The markets liked it. I don’t think the markets think there is going to be an emissions cap.”

Some key measures in the budget for unlocking investments in energy, mining and decarbonization include:

  • incentives to leverage $1 trillion in investment over the next five years in nuclear and wind power, energy storage and grid infrastructure;
  • an expansion of critical minerals eligible for a 30% clean technology manufacturing investment tax credit;
  • $2 billion over five years to accelerate critical mineral production;
  • tax credits for turquoise hydrogen (i.e. hydrogen made from natural gas through methane pyrolysis); and
  • an extension of an investment tax credit for carbon capture utilization and storage through to 2035.

As for carbon taxes, the budget promises “strengthened industrial carbon pricing.”

This might suggest the government’s plan is to simply simply shift the burden for carbon pricing from the consumer entirely onto industry. If that’s the case, it could put Canadian resource industries at a disadvantage.

“How do we keep pushing up the carbon price — which means the price of energy — for these industries at a time when the United States has no carbon pricing at all?” Finlayson wonders.

Overall, Carney does seem to be moving in the right direction in terms of realigning Canada’s energy and climate policies.

“I think this version of a Liberal government is going to be more focused on investment and competitiveness and less focused around the virtue-signaling on climate change, even though Carney personally has a reputation as somebody who cares a lot about climate change,” Finlayson said.

“It’s an awkward dance for them. I think they are trying to set out a different direction relative to the Trudeau years, but they’re still trying to hold on to the Trudeau climate narrative.”

Pictured is Mark Carney at COP26 as UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance. He is not at COP30 this week. UNRIC/Miranda Alexander-Webber

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