Alberta
Alberta power outages and higher costs on the way with new federal electricity regulations, AESO says
From the Canadian Energy Centre
By Cody Ciona
Clean Electricity Regulations put Alberta grid at risk for ‘minimal emissions reductions’
Alberta is at risk of power outages by the mid-2030s as a result of the federal government’s Clean Electricity Regulations (CER), says a new report by the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO).
The AESO’s analysis found the new regulations, which came into effect on January 1, will make the province’s electricity system more than 100 times less reliable by 2038.
Alberta has already reduced emissions from electricity production by 59 per cent since 2005 without the CER, according to the federal government’s national emissions reporting.
The finalized CER in December 2024 pushed out the federal government’s target of a net zero power grid from 2035 to 2050, but the AESO said the costs of the regulation continue to outweigh its minimal environmental benefit.
The CER essentially mandates the rapid and widespread adoption of technologies that remain under development or have not been commercially tested in Alberta, the AESO said.
This includes nuclear, large-scale hydroelectric generation, natural gas generation with carbon capture and storage, and hydrogen generation.
Due to restrictions on natural gas generation, the AESO forecasts an additional $30 billion in capital and operational costs between now and 2049.
The regulations will have high costs for Albertans, increasing wholesale electricity prices by 35 per cent above what they otherwise would be, the AESO said.
Along with potential reliability and affordability issues, the regulations will result in less than one million tonnes of emissions reduced annually, according to AESO.
“The significant cost that the CER will impose on Alberta’s electricity system for minimal emissions reductions means the regulation is inefficient and ineffective,” the AESO said.
“The threat to reliability resulting from the CER means that the regulation puts Alberta’s electricity grid at significant risk for little to no benefit.”
Alberta
Highway twinning from Sylvan Lake to Rocky Mountain House among dozens of infrastructure projects beginning in Alberta
Alberta’s government is investing in roads, bridges, and water infrastructure to strengthen the economy and meet the needs of the province’s growing population.
As Alberta’s population continues to grow so does the need for safe, reliable and effective infrastructure to support communities across the province, attract investment and boost economic development. Maintaining and expanding the provincial road and bridge network is vital for growing communities and expanding market access for local industry.
If passed, Budget 2025 would invest more than $8.5 billion for the Ministry of Transportation and Economic Corridors’ three-year Capital Plan, a $333.7-million increase compared with Budget 2024. This total includes more than $4 billion over three years for transportation infrastructure projects to benefit rural communities across the province, as well as $2.1 billion over three years for projects in the Calgary region, and $2 billion for projects in the Edmonton region.
“We are investing in the transportation and water infrastructure our communities need to address rapid growth, promote economic development and support a high quality of life. These investments help ensure our province remains the best place in Canada to live, work and raise a family.”
The total capital investment in this year’s budget includes $2.6 billion for planning, design and construction of major highway and bridge projects. This work will create thousands of jobs across Alberta, improve traffic flow, and support the development of major trade corridors through projects such as twinning Highway 3 and Highway 11, and major improvements to Deerfoot Trail and Highway 881. Capital investment funding also includes more than $186 million over three years for more than 50 engineering projects to address future infrastructure needs as the province continues to grow.
“These investments in Calgary’s roads and bridges are critical to supporting our growing city. Improved infrastructure means safer commutes, better connections for businesses and a stronger foundation for future growth.”
If passed, Budget 2025 would also include a $1.7-billion investment over three years for capital maintenance and renewal, which extends the life of the province’s existing road and bridge network, keeping the highway network safe and helping industry create and maintain well-paying jobs.
“Building and fixing roads and bridges improves the productivity of Alberta’s economy. Budget 2025 continues investing in critical infrastructure using local materials and labour. The ARHCA applauds Alberta’s leadership and commitment to all modes of trade-enabling transportation.”
In addition to improving and maintaining the provincial highway network, Alberta’s government has allocated $3.9 billion for capital grants to municipalities over the next three years. This includes funding for LRT projects in Edmonton and Calgary, as well as $5 million in new funding to support planning work for a new transit solution connecting the Calgary airport terminal with the future Blue Line LRT extension station.
“Investing in infrastructure is critical to establishing a solid foundation for economic growth, sustainability and thriving communities. As our population continues to grow, we must make smart investments in roads, bridges, water and transportation infrastructure to ensure our communities and businesses remain vibrant, connected and ready for the future.”
If passed, targeted investments in Budget 2025 would also support the growth and prosperity of rural communities by providing $126.8 million over three years to municipalities through the Strategic Transportation Infrastructure Program. This program helps smaller municipalities improve critical local transportation infrastructure.
Additionally, ongoing capital grants totalling $519.7 million over three years in water and wastewater infrastructure will ensure Albertans in every community have reliable access to clean drinking water and effective wastewater services.
Finally, Budget 2025 would provide $240.1 million to build and repair water management infrastructure, including dams, spillways, canals and control structures. This investment provides irrigation for the agriculture sector and flood mitigation for Alberta communities.
Budget 2025 is meeting the challenge faced by Alberta with continued investments in education and health, lower taxes for families and a focus on the economy.
Quick Facts
Regional Highlights
North region
- Budget 2025, if passed, invests $1.25 billion over three years in road and bridge construction projects to benefit the North region, including:
- $101 million for Highway 63 twinning, north of Fort McMurray
- $141 million for Highway 881 safety and road improvements
- $87 million for construction of the La Crete bridge
- $69 million for Highway 40 grade widening between Hinton and Grande Cache
- $7 million for the La Loche Connector road – extending Highway 956 from La Loche, Saskatchewan to Fort McMurray
- $4 million for twinning Highway 40 south of Grande Prairie
- $127.5 million for Highway 60 Capital Improvements
Central region
- Budget 2025, if passed, invests $1.4 billion over three years in road and bridge construction projects to benefit the Central region, including:
- $208 million for Highway 11 twinning between Sylvan Lake and Rocky Mountain House
- $98 million for the Vinca Bridge replacement on Highway 38 (near Redwater) as part of work to enhance the high-load corridor
South region
- Budget 2025, if passed, invests $363 million over three years in road and bridge construction projects to benefit the South region, including:
- $106 million for Highway 3 twinning (between Taber and east of Burdett)
- $92 million for the Highway 2 Balzac Interchange Replacement
- $24 million for the Highway 1A upgrade (Stoney First Nation)
- $9 million for the QEII Highway and 40th Avenue interchange ramp (near Airdrie)
Calgary
- Budget 2025, if passed, invests $2.1 billion over three years in road and bridge construction projects, and municipal grants to benefit the Calgary region, including:
- $173.1 million for the Calgary Rivers District and Event Centre
- $484.8 million for Deerfoot Trail upgrades
- $62.4 million for the Springbank Off-stream Reservoir (SR1) project
- $11.9 million for the Bow River Reservoir (Ghost Reservoir Infrastructure Project)
- $100 million for the Calgary Ring Road (West Stoney Trail)
- $8 million for the completion of the Highway 201 Bow River Bridge on the southeast Stoney Trail
- $26.5 million for the completion of the Stoney Trail and Airport Trail interchange
Edmonton
- Budget 2025, if passed, invests $2 billion over three years in road and bridge construction projects to benefit the Edmonton region, including:
- $31.9 million for the Ray Gibbon Drive expansion
- $31 million for the Terwillegar Drive widening from Rabbit Hill Road to Windermere Boulevard
- $52.7 million for the Terwillegar Drive Expansion improvements to the interchange at SW Anthony Henday Drive.
- $20.3 million for Highway 16A and Range Road 20 Safety Improvements
- $17.2 million for Highway 19 twinning
- $40.2 million for the Highway 2 and 65 Avenue Interchange in Leduc
Left to right – Daniel Yergin, vice chairman S&P Global; Hon. Danielle Smith, Premier of Alberta; Hon. Susan B. Bourgeois., Louisiana Secretary of Economic Development; and Jim Fitterling, CEO Dow Inc.
New Alberta reserves study finds Alberta’s gas reserves have increased six-fold, moving Canada’s gas reserves into the top 10 globally.
Alberta has always been a giant when it comes to natural gas, but after looking carefully at the Montney, Duvernay and the Deep Basin, new data has identified that the total gas resource in ground exceeds 1,360 trillion cubic feet (TCF). Of this, 130TCF is proved and recoverable gas reserves. For comparison, the latest U.S. government reserve number, using comparable methodologies, for Texas natural gas is 170TCF.
|
Gas (TCF) |
Oil (billion barrels) |
|
| Current Resource in Ground* |
1360 |
1820 |
| Previous AER Reserve number |
24 |
159.4 |
| 2025 McDaniel Proved Reserve study |
130** |
167*** |
| EIA Texas Reserves (2023) |
170 |
20 |
| * resource in ground number reflects an estimate of total resource in place.
** with proved and probable 144TCF. *** oil reserve studies for all basins not yet complete. |
||
Adding these new gas reserves to other provinces’ reserves sees Canada’s overall gas number more than double and results in Canada’s ranking moving from number 15 to number nine globally.
When it comes to oil reserves, Alberta remains a titan with a total resource in ground number of 1.8 trillion barrels. Oilsands proven reserves are more than 165 billion recoverable barrels and there is other growth. For example, new opportunities like the Clearwater basin which has almost two billion barrels of new reserves. For comparison, Texas’ proved oil reserves sit at 20 billion barrels.
Alberta’s global ranking for oil has not changed, however the increase of seven billion additional proved barrels does result in extending the province’s total years of overall oil supply to 137 years.
“Alberta’s responsible energy sector has embraced technology and innovation, and these advancements have allowed us to unlock material gas reserves that were previously not accounted for. While other jurisdictions could face inventory concerns in the future, Alberta’s reserves will be essential for North America to continue accessing affordable energy.”
“This announcement reinforces that Alberta has the reserves needed to enhance long-term energy security for our trading partners. With vast amounts of gas, oil and liquids, Alberta’s energy sector is ready and willing to work with our U.S. partners to achieve global energy security.”
The study to review Alberta’s natural gas and oil reserves was commissioned by the Alberta Energy Regulator and was conducted by McDaniel and Associates Consultants. McDaniel is still completing this work and a final number for all fields and growth areas will be completed in the coming weeks.
“The continued expansion of Alberta’s reserves offers immense potential for long-term energy security, ensuring a reliable source of energy to support both domestic needs and international markets.”
Alberta’s government is working closely with industry to determine all options for egress to market in support of our aspiration to double Alberta’s oil and gas production.
Faced with uncertainty around trade and security, Alberta’s government remains focused on diplomacy and continuing to build a resilient and diversified economy that is better positioned to withstand external shocks and ensure long-term prosperity.
Background
- Reserves are the most accurate measure of a jurisdiction’s future oil and gas potential. McDaniel and the Alberta Energy Regulator use the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook methodology to perform reserve studies.
- Reserves are estimated volumes of hydrocarbon resources that analysis of geologic and engineering data demonstrates with reasonable certainty are recoverable under existing economic and operating conditions. Reserves estimates change from year to year because of:
- price and cost changes
- new discoveries
- thorough appraisals of existing fields
- existing reserves production
- new and improved production techniques and technologies
Quick facts
- In 2023, Alberta produced 10.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) of natural gas. This was 61 per cent of Canadian natural gas production in 2023.
- Alberta is also the largest supplier of natural gas to the U.S. In 2023, Alberta exported 4.54 bcf/d to the U.S.
- Alberta oil directly supports more than 50 U.S.-based refineries with direct investment in more than 20 U.S. states, and is essential to affordability, growth, economic prosperity and energy security in the U.S.
- The U.S. Midwest continues to be the largest market for Canadian crude oil, followed by the U.S. Gulf Coast.
- As 2025 began, U.S. imports of crude oil from Canada reached a weekly record 4.42 million barrels per day, with the majority supplied by Alberta.
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