Alberta Institute – Provincial Election Roundup – Day 2

Submitted by Alberta Institute

Campaign Roundup – Day 2:

Candidates and volunteers continued knocking on doors and putting up lawn signs in constituencies around the province. Election campaigns take thousands of hours of work from engaged residents. If you want to get involved, find your preferred candidate and offer to lend a hand!
A new IPSOS poll showed that the UCP has a narrow, 4-point lead over the NDP. Decided and leaning voters favour the UCP by 48% to 44%. The two parties share roughly equal support in Calgary, which is largely considered this election’s battleground.
Rachel Notley accused Danielle Smith of hiding from the media on account of Smith not holding a press conference today. A little odd, given Smith did hold a press conference just yesterday. Joe Ceci, NDP candidate for Calgary-Buffalo, called it “unprecedented”, but we’re unaware of any precedent of any party’s leader holding press conferences every single day of the campaign.
Speaking of hiding from the media, we learned that yet another journalist – this time David Staples from the Edmonton Journal – was left off the campaign mailing list for NDP events. The situation was eventually resolved, but as Staples rightly pointed out, cherry-picking which journalists are and are not able to access information is becoming a concerning pattern for the NDP.
Flair Airlines opened their new Calgary base of operations, which will employ 150 people. Calgary City Councillor Walcott emphasized the importance of cheaper airfares, particularly in a time when people are struggling with affordability, while Danielle Smith highlighted the UCP’s recent business tax cuts and campaign promise to not raise business taxes as contributing to business confidence in Alberta.
Rachel Notley, meanwhile, promised healthcare improvements, including new health teams that would see a family physician work alongside specialists like therapists, dietitians, physiotherapists, and midwives. She pledged $350 million to establish 50 family health clinics and $400 million for hiring 4,000 allied health professionals.
The UCP released a new television ad highlighting affordability issues. The ad reiterates yesterday’s promise to lower income taxes for Albertans and extend the fuel tax holiday.

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Alberta

Big win for Alberta and Canada: Statement from Premier Smith

Published on April 2, 2025

Government of Alberta

Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:

“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.

“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.

“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.

“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.

“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.

“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”

Alberta

Energy sector will fuel Alberta economy and Canada’s exports for many years to come

Published on April 2, 2025

Todayville

From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.

Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.

In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.

Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.

The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.

Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.