Alberta
Alberta government must further restrain spending to stabilize provincial finances
From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill
This year, program spending will reach a projected $14,334 per Albertan, which is $1,603 more per person (inflation-adjusted) than the Smith government originally planned to spend this year as outlined in the 2022 mid-year budget update.
Despite recording a $4.3 billion surplus last year, Premier Danielle Smith remains committed to a new approach to Alberta finances that relies less heavily on resource revenue, which includes restraining spending levels below the rate of inflation and population growth. That’s a big step forward, but is it enough to stabilize Alberta’s boom and bust rollercoaster?
First, some background.
After nearly a decade and a half of routine budget deficits, Alberta swung to a budget surplus when resource revenue (which includes includes oil and gas royalties) skyrocketed from $3.1 billion in 2020/21 to $16.2 billion in 2021/22. In 2022/23, the government enjoyed the highest level of resource revenue on record and relatively high levels have continued in recent years. Correspondingly, Alberta’s surpluses have continued.
Alberta governments have a habit of increasing spending during times of high resource revenue, such as the province is currently experiencing, to levels that are unsustainable without incurring deficits when resource revenue inevitably declines. That’s why the Smith government’s commitment to spending restraint is an important one.
Unfortunately, however, due to the Smith government’s spending increases in previous years, this restraint won’t go as far in stabilizing provincial finances. Moreover, there are a number of limitations and exceptions to these new spending rules that may impede their effectiveness.
Consider that this year, program spending will reach a projected $14,334 per Albertan, which is $1,603 more per person (inflation-adjusted) than the Smith government originally planned to spend this year as outlined in the 2022 mid-year budget update.
As shown above, program spending (inflation-adjusted) will reach a projected $14,041 per person in 2025/26 and a projected $13,750 per person in 2026/27, which is equivalent to per-person increases of $1,571 and $1,538, respectively, compared to the original plan in 2022.
So while per-person (inflation-adjusted) spending is set to decline, which aligns with the Smith government’s commitment, this restraint is starting from a higher base level due to spending decisions thus far. That means more work needs to be done to rein in spending.
Indeed, for perspective, if the Smith government had simply stuck to its original plan, spending would be closely aligned with stable, more predictable sources of revenue. And ultimately, that’s the way to avoid deficits.
There’s also several limitations and exceptions for the government’s new spending rule. For example, the spending limit applies only to “operating expense,” which does not include longer-term spending, disaster and emergency assistance, spending related to dedicated revenue, or contingencies. As a result of various limits and exceptions, total program spending growth in 2023/24 exceeds inflation and population growth by 1.8 percentage points. Put simply, these limitations and exceptions add to the risk of budget deficits.
Sustainable finances have been impeded by increases in per person spending since 2022. So while the Smith government deserves credit for its commitment to restrain spending moving forward, Alberta’s fiscal challenges aren’t over.
Author:
Alberta
Red Deer’s first new courthouse in 40 years expected to open early in 2025
Front entrance of the new Red Deer Justice Centre.
New courthouse in downtown Red Deer will improve justice services for the region’s growing population and address space constraints.
Red Deer residents are one step closer to enhanced justice services in a state-of-the-art facility. The newly built Red Deer Justice Centre will replace the city’s existing outdated court facilities that have been operating at capacity. The new centre has space for 16 courtrooms, with 12 courtrooms fully built and the ability to add up to four additional courtrooms for future use.
With construction complete, Alberta Infrastructure is turning the building over to Alberta Justice, who will outfit the facility with furniture and modern equipment to prepare the building for the public. The centre is expected to officially open and begin operating in early 2025.
“This new, state-of-the-art courthouse will increase access to justice services for residents of Red Deer and central Alberta. The new facility will meet the space and service needs of residents for generations to come.”
Construction on the new Red Deer Justice Centre began in August 2020. The new centre includes spaces for alternative approaches to the traditional courtroom trial process, with three new suites for judicial dispute resolution services, a specific suite for other dispute resolution services, such as family mediation and civil mediation, and a new Indigenous courtroom able to accommodate smudging. Additionally, it will include modern technology to replace legacy systems at the current courthouse.
“Along with building a new justice centre for Red Deer, Alberta’s government is preparing to expand pre-court services, such as mediation, in Red Deer early in 2025. This new facility has the space to offer these services while also allowing more court cases to be heard, increasing Albertans’ access to justice.”
“As MLA for Red Deer-North, I am thrilled this new justice centre will open its doors to serve our growing community soon. When it opens, it will provide essential space and resources to support timely legal services, reflecting our commitment to improve legal access for the people of Red Deer and central Alberta.”
“Central Alberta is a wonderful, attractive place for individuals to work, live and raise families, and many are choosing our region for these reasons. The Red Deer Justice Centre will improve justice services for a growing population of individuals, families and businesses. This centre is a testament to Red Deer and central Alberta’s growth and our government’s commitment to it.”
Building the vital public infrastructure that Albertans need, creating jobs and attracting investment is integral to Alberta’s economic development. The project supported about 1,100 construction-related jobs from start to finish.
Quick facts
- Red Deer’s current court facilities include seven courtrooms that were built in the 1980s.
- Since then, Red Deer’s population has almost doubled.
- The approved project funding is about $203.1 million.
- The new 312,000 sq ft (29,000 m2) Red Deer Justice Centre is built to LEED Silver standards to ensure reduced energy consumption and operational costs and increased durability of the building.
- The new facility was designed by Group2 Architecture and Interior Design, in conjunction with justice facility specialists DLR Group.
- There are currently five courthouse capital projects in planning or design throughout the province.
Alberta
Ottawa’s oil and gas emissions cap will hit Alberta with a wallop
From the Fraser Institute
Even if Canada eliminated all its GHG emissions expected in 2030 due to the federal cap, the emission reduction would equal only four-tenths of one per cent of global emissions—a reduction unlikely to have any impact on the trajectory of the climate in any detectable manner or produce any related environmental, health or safety benefits.
After considerable waiting, the Trudeau government released on Monday draft regulations to cap greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Canada’s oil and gas producers.
The proposed regulations would set a cap on GHG emissions equivalent to 35 per cent of the emissions produced in 2019 and create a GHG emissions “cap and trade” system to enable oil and gas producers (who cannot reduce emissions enough to avoid the cap) to buy credits from other producers able to meet the cap. Producers unable to meet the cap will also be able to obtain emission credits (of up to 20 per cent of their needed emission reductions) by investing in decarbonization programs or by buying emission “offsets” in Canada’s carbon markets.
According to the government, the cap will “cap pollution, drive innovation, and create jobs in the oil and gas industry.” But in reality, while the cap may well cap pollution and drive some innovation, according to several recent analyses it won’t create jobs in the oil and gas industry and will in fact kill many jobs.
For example, the Conference Board of Canada think-tank estimates that the cap would reduce Canada’s GDP by up to $1 trillion between 2030 and 2040, kill up to 151,300 jobs across Canada by 2030, and national economic growth from 2023 to 2030 would slow from 15.3 per cent to 14.3 per cent.
Not surprisingly, Alberta would be hardest hit. According to the Board, from 2023 to 2030, the province’s economic growth would fall from an estimated 17.8 per cent to 13.3 per cent and employment growth would fall from 15.8 per cent to 13.6 per cent over the same period. Alberta government revenues from the sector would decline by 4.5 per cent in 2030 compared to a scenario without the cap. As a result, Alberta government revenues would be $4.5 billion lower in nominal terms in fiscal year 2030/31. And between 54,000 to 91,500 of Canada’s job losses would occur in Alberta.
Another study by Deloitte estimates that, due to the federal cap, Alberta will see 3.6 per cent less investment, almost 70,000 fewer jobs, and a 4.5 per cent decrease in the province’s economic output (i.e. GDP) by 2040. Ontario would lose more than 15,000 jobs and $2.3 billion from its economy by 2040. And Quebec would lose more than 3,000 jobs and $0.4 billion from its economy during the same period.
Overall, according to Deloitte, Canada would experience an economic loss equivalent to 1.0 per cent of GDP, translating into lower wages, the loss of nearly 113,000 jobs and a 1.3 per cent reduction in government tax revenues. (For context, Canada’s economic growth in 2023 was only 1.1 per cent.)
And what will Canadians get for all that economic pain?
In my study published last year by the Fraser Institute, I found that, even if Canada eliminated all its GHG emissions expected in 2030 due to the federal cap, the emission reduction would equal only four-tenths of one per cent of global emissions—a reduction unlikely to have any impact on the trajectory of the climate in any detectable manner or produce any related environmental, health or safety benefits.
Clearly, the Trudeau government’s new proposed emissions cap on the oil and gas sector will impose significant harms on Canada’s economy, Canadian workers and our quality of life—and hit Alberta with a wallop. And yet, as a measure intended to avert harmful climate change, it’s purely performative (like many of the government’s other GHG regulations) and will generate too little emission reductions to have any meaningful impact on the climate.
In a world of rational policy development, where the benefits of government regulations are supposed to exceed their costs, policymakers would never consider this proposed cap. The Trudeau government will submit the plan to Parliament, and if the cap becomes law, it will await some other future government to undo the damage inflicted on Canadians and their families.
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