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Alberta Election 2023 Campaign roundup: Day 19

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From the Alberta Institute

Campaign Roundup – Day 19:

  • The long-awaited debate between Rachel Notley and Danielle Smith took place last night. If you missed it, we have the full debate available on our website.
  • After the debate, many journalists called it a win for Danielle Smith. David Staples, of the Edmonton Journal, summed it up by saying: “Rachel Notley came to attack. Danielle Smith came to rally people around her.”
  • RJ Sigurdson, UCP Candidate for Highwood, shared a moving personal story about his father, who was a paramedic. Sigurdson said he’s running and advocating for lower EMS response times to carry on his legacy. He said real change comes from listening to frontline workers.
  • Jason Nixon, UCP Candidate for Rimbey – Rocky Mountain House – Sundre, held a media event in Calgary. He said that nowhere felt the negative economic impacts of the NDP government like downtown Calgary and that now, under the UCP, office vacancy rates are going down, and businesses are coming back to the area.
  • The NDP celebrated Family Doctor Day and reiterated their plan to get every single Albertan a family doctor.
  • The NDP also announced a plan for revitalization efforts in Edmonton. They promised that, if elected, they would invest $1.87 billion into Edmonton projects, including building the South Edmonton Hospital, planning and designing a standalone Stollery Children’s Hospital, affordable housing, and building and modernizing 40 schools.
  • Adriana LaGrange, UCP Candidate for Red Deer – North, called out her NDP opponent, Jaelene Tweedle, for a tweet she made noting that Charter schools erode the quality of public education and divide communities. Tweedle has since backtracked, but LaGrange questioned her sincerity.
  • Finally, if you haven’t had a chance to fill out our second annual Alberta Policy Survey yet, please do so now. We’d love to get your opinion on what issues are most important and what solutions should be proposed to solve them. Filling out the survey will only take about 5 minutes, but will really help our researchers decide where we should focus our attention as an organization.

 


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Alberta

Big win for Alberta and Canada: Statement from Premier Smith

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Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:

“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.

“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.

“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.

“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.

“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.

“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”

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Alberta

Energy sector will fuel Alberta economy and Canada’s exports for many years to come

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.

Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.

In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.

Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.

The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.

Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.

Jock Finlayson

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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