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An Alternative View of COVID 19 in Alberta

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I am Al Poole, retired Site Leader,  NOVA Chemicals, Joffre site. Like everyone else, I’ve been overwhelmed with information about Covid 19. It is in my nature to ask questions – and keep asking until I get a satisfactory answer. As a former Site Leader at NOVA Chemicals, Joffre I am aware of what emergency response plans look like. This isn’t it

Why am I doing this?

  1. I accept that covid may be more contagious than other influenzas and requires thoughtful and well planned interventions to minimize the impact on all citizens (I say “may” as there is considerable disagreement on the PCR test method – even by its founder).. However, I am puzzled as to why the AB government and AHS will not consider the opposing opinions coming from other health and science experts. I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle.  Why are they so reluctant to engage other opinion to ensure we are on a productive path to protect all Albertans. I am surprised at how willingly many Albertans have accepted the ongoing dogma by our government, AHS and the media. Fear factor is something to worry about. I believe it results from sharing inaccurate models and the constant reporting of cases even though we know cases are not harmful to the vast majority of Albertans.  Clearly – our media people are caught up in the fear factor. I hope people will read this and begin a process to become more informed on – What is And What isn’t –  as it relates to Covid. People need to ask more questions – demand better information.
  2. Read these articles: one by David Redman on a proper Emergency Response Plan – why ignore it? https://c2cjournal.ca/2020/12/every-store-and-school-should-be-open-confronting-the-pandemic-with-confidence/  Second one – Great Barrington Declaration, written by some smart qualified medical people – why it is simply dismissed? https://gbdeclaration.org/
  3. See this article on our freedoms and rights in the National Post from Preston Manning https://nationalpost.com/opinion/preston-manning-lockdown-rules-are-violating-our-rights-im-calling-on-the-justice-minister-to-intervene

Remember:

1) At the outset we were alerted to the fact the virus (like flu viruses) is likely to mutate.  Now – it has and continues to mutate.  Even more concerning is the notion it only happens in other countries and can only enter Canada – versus accepting the mutation can happen here too.

2) Soon after governments accepted Covid was real and in Canada they declared, “we must protect our most vulnerable”.  Everyone agreed! It still makes sense as one of the important objectives – but not the only one.

Perspective:

As of Jan 25rd in Alberta (Based on data from Alberta Gov’t interactive web site on Covid):

  • Over 95% of people contracting the virus have few to no symptoms;
  • Less than 5% are hospitalized;
  • Less than a 1% in ICU;
  • Average age is 82;
  • No one under the age of 20 has died.

Across Canada over 80% of deaths are in Long Term Care Facilities (most vulnerable).

So – how have they done protecting the most vulnerable? They have done a miserable job – and I am not surprised.   They were offered an emergency response plan but chose to ignore it. The plan outlined by Mr. Redman is consistent with my  Emergency Preparedness and Response training and experience.  Further, as soon as you enter the realm of personal protective equipment to protect people from respiratory infection – you are into seriously rigid procedures.  I have seen no evidence of meaningful procedures.

Deaths (using 4,400,000 as Alberta population – actual slightly higher):

  • Covid deaths (1549):  0.04%
  • Annual deaths (from all causes in 2019 – over 26,000):  0 .6%
  • Deaths among elderly continue to rise – no surprise as they did not protect most vulnerable.

Age at death (comorbidities a major factor in most of these deaths):

  • 80+ – 1030
  • 70s – 316
  • 60s – 160
  • 50s – 50

In summary:

I worry the hype of new strains will lead gov’t to more and longer lockdown restrictions with out any realization these same actions  have made it worse for our most vulnerable and have made it worse for so many other Albertans.. A good Emergency Response Plan would have done a better job of protecting our most vulnerable – less deaths – less load on hospitals and much less impact on Alberta citizens and way of life. It is not too late to rethink the covid approach to something more effective in protecting our most vulnerable and getting Alberta citizens and businesses moving back toward normal life and operations. 

In closing, Covid has had an impact on us —  for two of our three children – have experienced work interruptions.  Our oldest is in essential services (Ontario) so continues to work. However, her son, our grandson at 13 is negatively impacted, by isolation and not being in a classroom, during a most important time of his life.  Also, I have a 92 year old mom in good mental and physical health – more negatively impacted by isolation.  As she said to me this summer, “for heavens sake Allan, I am 92 – what are they thinking”.  She was so upset she could not hug two of her children who were allowed a ‘distance visit’.

I am still puzzled and wondering – what are they (gov’t and AHS) trying to protect?  Their actions and decisions to date make no sense.

I encourage everyone to become more informed and start asking a lot more questions. We are entitled to better leadership  and meaningful information from our government. Here are my questions :

  • What is the truth on PCR testing?  We want data not just your opinion.
  • Why is the death rate so high in LTC – from March 2020 until now?
  • Why is most testing related to multiple test for same people – suggests spread is in hot zones (LTC facilities).
  • Why are so many business still under lockdown restrictions?

“What are your questions?”

 

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Alberta

Alberta’s fiscal update projects budget surplus, but fiscal fortunes could quickly turn

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From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

According to the recent mid-year update tabled Thursday, the Smith government projects a $4.6 billion surplus in 2024/25, up from the $2.9 billion surplus projected just a few months ago. Despite the good news, Premier Smith must reduce spending to avoid budget deficits.

The fiscal update projects resource revenue of $20.3 billion in 2024/25. Today’s relatively high—but very volatile—resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is helping finance today’s spending and maintain a balanced budget. But it will not last forever.

For perspective, in just the last decade the Alberta government’s annual resource revenue has been as low as $2.8 billion (2015/16) and as high as $25.2 billion (2022/23).

And while the resource revenue rollercoaster is currently in Alberta’s favor, Finance Minister Nate Horner acknowledges that “risks are on the rise” as oil prices have dropped considerably and forecasters are projecting downward pressure on prices—all of which impacts resource revenue.

In fact, the government’s own estimates show a $1 change in oil prices results in an estimated $630 million revenue swing. So while the Smith government plans to maintain a surplus in 2024/25, a small change in oil prices could quickly plunge Alberta back into deficit. Premier Smith has warned that her government may fall into a budget deficit this fiscal year.

This should come as no surprise. Alberta’s been on the resource revenue rollercoaster for decades. Successive governments have increased spending during the good times of high resource revenue, but failed to rein in spending when resource revenues fell.

Previous research has shown that, in Alberta, a $1 increase in resource revenue is associated with an estimated 56-cent increase in program spending the following fiscal year (on a per-person, inflation-adjusted basis). However, a decline in resource revenue is not similarly associated with a reduction in program spending. This pattern has led to historically high levels of government spending—and budget deficits—even in more recent years.

Consider this: If this fiscal year the Smith government received an average level of resource revenue (based on levels over the last 10 years), it would receive approximately $13,000 per Albertan. Yet the government plans to spend nearly $15,000 per Albertan this fiscal year (after adjusting for inflation). That’s a huge gap of roughly $2,000—and it means the government is continuing to take big risks with the provincial budget.

Of course, if the government falls back into deficit there are implications for everyday Albertans.

When the government runs a deficit, it accumulates debt, which Albertans must pay to service. In 2024/25, the government’s debt interest payments will cost each Albertan nearly $650. That’s largely because, despite running surpluses over the last few years, Albertans are still paying for debt accumulated during the most recent string of deficits from 2008/09 to 2020/21 (excluding 2014/15), which only ended when the government enjoyed an unexpected windfall in resource revenue in 2021/22.

According to Thursday’s mid-year fiscal update, Alberta’s finances continue to be at risk. To avoid deficits, the Smith government should meaningfully reduce spending so that it’s aligned with more reliable, stable levels of revenue.

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Alberta

Premier Smith says Auto Insurance reforms may still result in a publicly owned system

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Better, faster, more affordable auto insurance

Alberta’s government is introducing a new auto insurance system that will provide better and faster services to Albertans while reducing auto insurance premiums.

After hearing from more than 16,000 Albertans through an online survey about their priorities for auto insurance policies, Alberta’s government is introducing a new privately delivered, care-focused auto insurance system.

Right now, insurance in the province is not affordable or care focused. Despite high premiums, Albertans injured in collisions do not get the timely medical care and income support they need in a system that is complex to navigate. When fully implemented, Alberta’s new auto insurance system will deliver better and faster care for those involved in collisions, and Albertans will see cost savings up to $400 per year.

“Albertans have been clear they need an auto insurance system that provides better, faster care and is more affordable. When it’s implemented, our new privately delivered, care-centred insurance system will put the focus on Albertans’ recovery, providing more effective support and will deliver lower rates.”

Danielle Smith, Premier

“High auto insurance rates put strain on Albertans. By shifting to a system that offers improved benefits and support, we are providing better and faster care to Albertans, with lower costs.”

Nate Horner, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance

Albertans who suffer injuries due to a collision currently wait months for a simple claim to be resolved and can wait years for claims related to more serious and life-changing injuries to addressed. Additionally, the medical and financial benefits they receive often expire before they’re fully recovered.

Under the new system, Albertans who suffer catastrophic injuries will receive treatment and care for the rest of their lives. Those who sustain serious injuries will receive treatment until they are fully recovered. These changes mirror and build upon the Saskatchewan insurance model, where at-fault drivers can be sued for pain and suffering damages if they are convicted of a criminal offence, such as impaired driving or dangerous driving, or conviction of certain offenses under the Traffic Safety Act.

Work on this new auto insurance system will require legislation in the spring of 2025. In order to reconfigure auto insurance policies for 3.4 million Albertans, auto insurance companies need time to create and implement the new system. Alberta’s government expects the new system to be fully implemented by January 2027.

In the interim, starting in January 2025, the good driver rate cap will be adjusted to a 7.5% increase due to high legal costs, increasing vehicle damage repair costs and natural disaster costs. This protects good drivers from significant rate increases while ensuring that auto insurance providers remain financially viable in Alberta.

Albertans have been clear that they still want premiums to be based on risk. Bad drivers will continue to pay higher premiums than good drivers.

By providing significantly enhanced medical, rehabilitation and income support benefits, this system supports Albertans injured in collisions while reducing the impact of litigation costs on the amount that Albertans pay for their insurance.

“Keeping more money in Albertans’ pockets is one of the best ways to address the rising cost of living. This shift to a care-first automobile insurance system will do just that by helping lower premiums for people across the province.”

Nathan Neudorf, Minister of Affordability and Utilities

Quick facts

  • Alberta’s government commissioned two auto insurance reports, which showed that legal fees and litigation costs tied to the province’s current system significantly increase premiums.
  • A 2023 report by MNP shows
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