The wholly predictable results of yesterday’s election are tantamount to a deafening sucker punch to Alberta and the West – and things are not about to get better for us under this minority Liberal government, because Justin Trudeau is effectually tone deaf to our deep and growing alienation.

Or worse, perhaps he just doesn’t care. He says he will support Alberta, but he also said he would balance the federal budget by 2019 and told an Ontario town hall gathering two years ago that: “We can’t shut down the oilsands tomorrow. We need to phase them out.” So how supported do Albertans feel right now? Not very.

Bills C-48 and C-69 speak loudly his intentions with respect to Alberta and the West. The fact that his minority government will now have to rely on NDP or Bloc support in the House almost certainly means no social license for Alberta’s “dirty oil” going forward – notwithstanding we have the cleanest, most ethically produced, environmentally sensitive, human & employee rights protected oil and gas industry in the world.

It’s truly a sad day for Albertans and the West generally. As a proud, hard-working, industrious people, we must now rally together and send a clear message to the federal government and the rest of Canada that we will not concede to second-class citizen status any longer.

We cannot continue to generate net billions in transfer payments (even through the most painfully protracted recession in collective memory), while the main industry responsible for that wealth is under targeted attack on several fronts, and while provinces like Quebec (and Ontario between 2009 and 2018) continue to reap the benefits of collecting net billions: $11.7 and $13.1 billion transferred to Quebec in 2018 and 2019 fiscal years respectively – in a time of fiscal surplus for Quebec to the tune of 2.5 to 3 billion dollars.

Meanwhile in July 2017, the Fraser Institute reported that Alberta contributed 221.4 billion more in revenue than it received in federal transfer payments and grants between the years 2007 and 2015 – contributing more money to the federal purse than any other province in Canada. Last year alone, Alberta paid net 21.8 billion more in taxes to the federal government than we got back in grants – notwithstanding our economy is still mired in recession with shuttered businesses on every corner – and we’ve not received a federal transfer payment since 1965.

Premier Jason Kenney noted that “Since equalization was created [in 1957], Alberta has received 0.02% of all payments, the last of which was in 1964-1965. In contrast, Quebec has received equalization money every year of the program, totalling 221 billion dollars or 51 per cent of all payments.”

Part of the injustice of this program stems from the systemic inequity in how provincial revenue capacity is calculated under the federal equalization formula. Here’s a quick case study:

Between 2005 and 2010, Quebec received 42.5 billion in equalization payments. Had transfer payment rules treated Quebec’s hydro-electric revenue the same as they treat Alberta’s oil and gas revenue in the calculation of revenue capacity, those payments would have been reduced to 28.1 billion over that same period – meaning that Quebec was overpaid by 14.4 billion dollars (or 34 per cent) during that time, because the rules are designed to favour Quebec in the calculation of provincial revenue under the federal formula.

In the wake of yesterday’s federal election, it’s hard to see a path where Premier Kenney won’t be putting the question of equalization equity to Albertans by way of an upcoming referendum, since he promised that:

“If the federal government continues its attacks through the National Energy Board (NEB) and the federal carbon tax, then Alberta should take a common-sense approach and hold a referendum demanding the removal of non-renewable resource revenues from the equalization formula … [to] massively reduce Alberta’s contribution to equalization.”

Moreover, Section 88 of the Supreme Court’s decision in Reference re Secession of Quebec, [1998] 2 S.C.R. 217 seems to pave a clear path for the democratic will of any province to express itself, by referendum or otherwise, to the rest of the country by renegotiating the terms of its participation:

“The clear repudiation by the people of [Alberta] of the existing constitutional order would confer legitimacy on demands for [fiscal equity], and place an obligation on the other provinces and the federal government to acknowledge and respect that expression of democratic will by entering into negotiations and conducting them in accordance with the underlying constitutional principles already discussed.” [Edited from the original text: people of Quebec and demands for secession to reflect Alberta’s aspirations for equity].

Finally, no substantive review of this Albertan’s response to yesterday’s election would be complete without reference to the submission published in the National Post on January 24, 2001, headlined “An open letter to Ralph Klein” wherein we read:

“… We believe the time has come for Albertans to take greater charge of our own future. This means resuming control of the powers that we possess under the constitution of Canada but that we have allowed the federal government to exercise. Intelligent use of these powers will help Alberta build a prosperous future in spite of a misguided and increasingly hostile government in Ottawa. …

All of these steps can be taken using the constitutional powers that Alberta now possesses. In addition, we believe it is imperative for you to take all possible political and legal measures to reduce the financial drain on Alberta caused by Canada’s tax-and-transfer system. …

Starting to act now will secure the future for all Albertans. It is imperative to take the initiative, to build firewalls around Alberta, to limit the extent to which an aggressive and hostile federal government can encroach upon legitimate provincial jurisdiction. …

The precondition for the success of this Alberta Agenda is the exercise of all our legitimate provincial jurisdictions under the constitution of Canada.”

Elements of this Alberta Agenda identified in the now famous “Firewall” letter include:

• Withdraw from Canada Pension Plan to create an Alberta Pension Plan.
• Collect our own revenue from personal income tax.
• Create our own Alberta Provincial Police Force.
• Resume Provincial responsibility for health care policy.
• Advocate for meaningful senate reform.
• Reduce the drain on Alberta caused by transfer payments.

Whether by a Firewall, Wexit arrangement, or otherwise, Alberta and the West now need to circle the wagons, so to speak, and formulate a strategy that makes the rest of Canada stand up and take notice. And by take notice, I mean effect meaningful change to level the playing field of Confederation.

It’s been so shamefully, undemocratically, inexcusably unlevel for so long, that the West can no longer abide our current configuration in Canada. We can no longer stand to be second-class citizens of this great nation. Some iteration of change is inexorably forthcoming, because the West deserves – and must demand – justice.