MxM News

Quick Hit:

The United Kingdom, France, and Ukraine are working on a ceasefire proposal to end the Russia-Ukraine war, aiming to present the plan to President Donald Trump. The move follows a tense Oval Office meeting that has strained U.S.-Ukraine relations.

Key Details:

• British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are leading efforts to mediate a Ukraine peace deal, with Italy also signaling interest.
• The plan involves a ceasefire, European-led security guarantees, and a “coalition of the willing” to stabilize Ukraine post-conflict.
• Trump remains skeptical of long-term U.S. security commitments, making European efforts critical to any peace deal’s success.

Diving Deeper:

Following an explosive Oval Office exchange between President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, European leaders have intensified their efforts to mediate an end to the war in Ukraine. The U.K. and France have taken the lead in drafting a ceasefire plan, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasizing that a “coalition of the willing” must act swiftly to bring an end to the bloody three-year conflict.

In a Sunday interview with the BBC, Starmer confirmed that the U.K., France, and Ukraine had agreed to begin formal negotiations on a peace plan, which they would later present to Washington. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also expressed interest in playing a role, hinting at a broader European effort to push for a settlement.

However, Europe’s diplomatic push faces major obstacles. The proposal reportedly includes European peacekeeping troops in Ukraine—something Russia has flatly rejected. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the idea “unacceptable,” accusing European nations, particularly France and the U.K., of fueling the war instead of ending it.

Further complicating matters, Starmer stressed that the plan should include a U.S. security guarantee for Ukraine—an idea Trump has repeatedly dismissed. At his first Cabinet meeting, Trump made it clear that Europe should take the lead, stating, “I’m not going to make security guarantees beyond very much. We’re going to have Europe do that.”

Zelensky’s insistence on American security commitments during Friday’s meeting reportedly led to the breakdown in talks, with Trump removing him from the White House and stating that the Ukrainian leader “can come back when he is ready for peace.” In response, European officials rallied around Zelensky, with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock calling the White House exchange “horrifying” and the European Union’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, suggesting that the “free world needs a new leader.”

While Europe’s push for a peace plan may help Zelensky demonstrate openness to negotiations, its chances of success remain uncertain. Without Trump’s backing or Russian agreement, the proposal risks becoming another diplomatic exercise with little impact on the battlefield. Furthermore, if European nations wish to replace the U.S. as Ukraine’s primary security guarantor, they will need to significantly increase their defense spending—something unlikely given their entrenched welfare commitments.

For now, European leaders appear eager to test Trump’s willingness to engage in peace efforts on their terms. Whether he accepts their proposal, or insists on his own approach, could define the next phase of the war.