“I started a joke that started the whole world crying”. The BeeGees

Hands up all those who had Canada, Greenland and Panama as a parlay on their cards. No? Not shocked. We are at the start of a new U.S. foreign policy doctrine, and it has many in Canada panicking.

There have been famous doctrines over the years governing U.S. foreign policy. The Monroe Doctrine. The Truman Doctrine. The Reagan Doctrine. Now we have the Trump “You Snooze You Lose” Doctrine. The past and future POTUS  articulated this realpolitik in the weeks following his election. Tariffs on Canada. Border control. No foreign entanglements. It’s become obvious in the past week that his most vulnerable target would be dozing self-congratulatory postmodern Trudeaupia.

Which has now, suddenly, awoken to its jeopardy. Yes, the nation that lowered flags claiming it’s a genocidal culture, removed national symbols, ignored the PM dressing as Sinbad, locked down tighter than a gnat’s ass for Covid and threatened truckers with loss of jobs and income for not taking an experimental vaccine— these people who elected Trudeau three times as PM wonder why Trump has no respect for Canada

During Tuesday’s extensive presser Trump said he liked Canadians but summed up their weakness. “Canada is subsidized (by the U.S.) to the tune of about $200 billion a year, plus other things. And they don’t essentially have a military. They have a very small military. They rely on our military. It’s all fine, but you know they gotta pay for that.” The question is how much of Canada’s sovereignty will be sacrificed in this accounting?

In their alarm the maple leaf brigade forgets that, with the Apprentice star, it’s nothing personal. He loves to make deals. He likes to mock his opponents. And he likes to win. (After he beats you he shakes your hand and invites you to Mar A Lago.) Like a good poker player he looks for weakness to exploit. And in the Canada of Justin Trudeau he saw weakness everywhere. To paraphrase the Donald, the most weak weakness in the history of the world. Trump seasoned his jibes by proposing hockey star Wayne Gretzky to be governor of a 51st state (Gretzky demurred).

None of this is new. The imbalance between Canada and the U.S. has been longstanding. In July of 2018 we wrote “Sometimes An Ingrate Nation: Bitching About A Free Tab On America’s Bill”. We noted, “Canadians miffed with President Trump’s bracing assessment of Canadians as partners have decided that they will boycott America. Perhaps they are forgetting how lucky they are.”

The boycott fizzled, and it was business as usual. Luckily for slack Canadians no one in the Biden United States was willing to pursue the freeloader status of Canada. Too polite? Too preoccupied? Doesn’t matter now. Trump noticed. Much of what followed is bluff, like a poker player. But it hit a nerve.

When the notion of putting 25 percent tariffs on Canada was first broached there was brave talk of retaliation. Led by the dubious dauphin Trudeau humourless suits blustered about striking back. Instead of simply addressing the border issue Trump identified, Canadians vowed instead not to travel south again, to boycott American goods, denying the U.S. the CDN strategic maple sugar reserve.

Bad idea. A re-focussed Trump is now talking more seriously about a 51st state, an open border, a blended economy (an idea promoted by Canada’s Kevin O’Leary in his chats with GOP grandees). Sometimes it’s lighthearted. Tuesday it was not. He wants Canada to take border security seriously. He wants Canadians to pay for it. There is enough truth to Canada’s indentured state that hosers everywhere now realize their vulnerability under Trudeau’s progressive regime.

Because they fear Trump, Canada’s progressive howler monkeys instead beat up on Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, the presumptive PM. They call him a mini Trump and other things they’re too cowardly to hurl at Trump directly. Ottawa’s purchased media whine that PP won’t constantly stick his foot in his mouth like their beloved Elizabeth May, giving them lots of columns and panel topics.

It didn’t fool anyone. The Trudeau time line to hang on as PM till October was destroyed by Trump’s mockery about a 51st state. Trump’s agitation made it obvious that Canada could not trust Trudeau to negotiate with POTUS 45/ 47.  With PMJT absent, premiers like Doug Ford (Ontario) and Danielle Smith (Alberta) went around Surfer Boy to appeal to Americans for mercy.

Trudeau— who’d routinely maligned Trump for a decade— made himself the victim of the play, scuttling off to his governor general for a perogy prorogation. Now we have PMJT offering to resign, but only after playing parliamentary peekaboo into the summer. Leaving Canada in the lurch while Liberals leisurely solve their Trudeau problem.

How seriously should Canada’s fainting goats take Trump’s agenda? After all he’s putting the full-court press on Greenland, Panama and the Gulf of Mexico/ America, too. Canadians should first understand that most of this thrust is for his domestic consumption. Facing the remnants of the lengthy lawfare campaign against him and having just one term to work within he’s cognizant of keeping Americans happy.

Those who recall the president before Mr. Senile will remember that Trump shoots high to settle lower on the expectation scale. He wants Canada’s resources, not freeloaders like Jagmeet Singh. Plus he needs an outlet in the eastern Arctic. And freer markets for America’s producers.

When the Gretzky jokes and Trudeau jabs subside there will be still be the matter of Canada paying more when federal governments have frittered away a legacy on vanity climate projects and healthcare that doesn’t work. If Trump offers Canada a way out of that bind there might be something new under the northern sun.

It won’t come without strings. He’ll say, “You’re broke, but maybe can work something out”. At which point Canadians will best summed be up by another BeeGees tearjerker, “How Can You Mend A Broken Heart?”

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed Hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org. You can see all his books at brucedowbigginbooks.ca.