Business
Why should Liberal MPs defend the carbon tax now?
From the Canadian Taxpayers Federation
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s carbon tax should be tucked under his arm while he doesn’t let the door hit them on the way out.
And Liberal caucus members need to make sure that happens.
Those in doubt need to ask themselves two questions.
Practically, why should Canadians keep paying the carbon tax for another few months before the next election?
Politically, why should government MPs keep paying a price with voters because of the carbon tax?
The carbon tax can be slayed on Wednesday during the Liberal party’s emergency caucus meeting.
Caucus finally rose up and finally forced the prime minister to face the reality that he can’t get re-elected.
But that’s only half of the job.
The problem isn’t just one person. It’s the policies. And Trudeau’s trademark carbon tax is one of his biggest failures. Replacing the PM while keeping the carbon tax is like switching the blackjack dealer while still facing a stacked deck.
And the Liberal caucus knows this.
Those Liberal MPs have been yelled at by their constituents about the carbon tax for years.
Hardworking people have been telling these MPs they can’t afford the carbon tax and it’s unfair to be punished for driving to work, heating their homes and buying food.
Those MPs have seen their constituents’ heating bills, the costs of their commutes and the invoices for their businesses.
They know the carbon tax adds about $13 to the cost of filling a minivan and about $20 extra to fill a pickup. They know the carbon tax is costing long haul truckers about $2 billion this year and they know it will cost farmers $1 billion in the next five years.
They know Canada misses its emissions targets, even with the carbon tax.
And here’s the big one: these MPs know the carbon tax is getting hiked on April 1.
The timeline has to be terrifying for Liberals seeking re-election.
March 24, the House of Commons reconvenes.
The government presents its Throne speech and immediately starts facing confidence votes with all opposition parties promising to vote against the government.
Then, on April 1, the government raises the carbon tax again.
Imagine door knocking after losing a confidence vote and raising the carbon tax.
Imagine being an MP from southern Ontario and a greenhouse tomato grower walks into your office with a chart showing his carbon tax costs.
Imagine trying to tell that farmer that he “gets more back” than he pays in the carbon tax.
Picture being an MP from Halifax and telling your constituents they need to buy an electric heat pump as their sole source of winter warmth before the carbon tax slaps them again.
Nova Scotia has charming weather events such as ice fog which seeps into a house like a ghost from a Dickens novel. So, most Maritime folks still need a furnace and Trudeau’s carbon tax punishes them.
These MPs have all been hollered at by their constituents who have been wounded by the carbon tax.
No matter how much the MPs may have pleaded with Trudeau behind closed doors, he kept the carbon tax and forced his MPs to defend it.
Trudeau tied this millstone to the necks of his MPs and didn’t care how much it ground them down.
But he’s leaving now.
And these Liberal MPs have the opportunity to cut the rope and free themselves from Trudeau’s carbon tax.
The Liberal caucus is holding an emergency meeting on Parliament Hill on Wednesday, and those members of Parliament need to demand an end to carbon tax then and there.
Why should they force Canadians to keep muttering profanities when they fill up their cars or pay the carbon tax charges on their heating bills?
Why should Liberal MPs face day after day of berating phone calls from constituents who don’t buy PMO talking points about the carbon tax?
The least they can do is spare Canadians the cost of the carbon tax right now and try to do the right thing in the end.
On Wednesday, Liberal MPs have to demand an end to the carbon tax.
From EnergyNow.ca
By Leonard Herchen & Yuchen Wang of GLJ
Their long-term real price forecast projects WTI at USD $74.00 per barrel and Henry Hub natural gas at USD $4.00 per MMBtu in 2025 dollars, signaling expectations of market stabilization and sustained global demand.
The energy markets in 2025 are undergoing transformative structural changes, highlighted by the operational launch of key infrastructure projects such as LNG Canada. This development significantly enhances Canada’s ability to meet rising global LNG demand while alleviating long-standing supply bottlenecks. At the same time, economic recovery across major markets remains uneven, shaping varied trends in energy demand and production activity.
Geopolitical dynamics are poised to redefine the competitive landscape, with the return of a Trump-led U.S. administration introducing potential shifts in trade policies, regulatory frameworks, and relationships with leading energy-producing nations. These changes, coupled with climate policy advancements and an accelerated global transition toward renewable energy, present additional complexities for the oil and gas sector.
Amid these uncertainties, GLJ’s analysts express confidence in the resilience of market fundamentals. Their long-term real price forecast projects WTI at USD $74.00 per barrel and Henry Hub natural gas at USD $4.00 per MMBtu in 2025 dollars, signaling expectations of market stabilization and sustained global demand.
Oil Prices
The oil market in 2025 reflects a delicate balance between supply and demand. During Q4 2024, WTI prices remained stable, fluctuating between $69 and $73 per barrel. This stability highlights the market’s resilience, even in the face of a slower global economic recovery and geopolitical challenges, including weaker demand in regions like China and increased production in North America.
Geopolitical risks remain pivotal, with ongoing tensions in the Middle East and sanctions on oil-exporting nations such as Iran and Venezuela threatening supply disruptions. While OPEC+ production cuts continue to provide vital support to prices by tightening global supply, these efforts are partially offset by the rising output of non-OPEC producers, notably in the U.S. and Canada.
The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) project is reshaping the pricing dynamics of WCS crude relative to WTI. By increasing export capacity to the West Coast, TMX has created conditions for a sustained narrowing of the WCS-WTI differential, moving away from seasonal fluctuations.
The return of a Trump-led U.S. administration introduces additional challenges. Deregulation policies aimed at boosting domestic oil production may exert downward pressure on prices, while potential trade tariffs and revised international agreements could further complicate global oil flows.
In this dynamic environment, GLJ forecasts WTI to average $71.25 per barrel and Brent $75.25 per barrel in 2025. These projections reflect robust long-term fundamentals, including sustained global demand and ongoing efforts to manage supply dynamics, emphasizing the market’s resilience despite near-term uncertainties.
Natural Gas Prices
In 2025, GLJ’s forecast suggests Henry Hub prices will average $3.20 per MMBtu, supported by steady domestic demand, seasonal winter peaks, and robust LNG exports. U.S. natural gas continues to play a critical role globally, ensuring supply security for key markets in Europe and Asia. The combination of growing industrial use, power generation demand, and stable production levels provides a solid foundation for price stability.
For the Canadian market, GLJ projects AECO natural gas prices to average $2.05 per MMBtu in 2025, representing a recovery from the lows of 2024. This improvement is attributed to easing regional oversupply and stabilizing demand. However, challenges persist, as production continues to outpace infrastructure expansion, prompting a downward adjustment of GLJ’s long-term AECO price forecast by $0.40 per MMBtu. The ramp-up of LNG Canada’s operations is expected to progressively enhance market dynamics and address these challenges.
On a global scale, LNG benchmarks such as NBP, TTF, and JKM have remained relatively stable, supported by high storage levels in Europe and balanced supply-demand conditions. European suppliers have effectively managed storage drawdowns, ensuring sufficient reserves for winter. Nevertheless, these benchmarks remain susceptible to market volatility driven by geopolitical uncertainties.
The CAD/USD Exchange Rate
The Canadian dollar experienced sharp depreciation during the last quarter of 2024, with the CAD/USD exchange rate falling below 0.70 USD. Economists have attributed this decline to the strength of the U.S. economy and its currency, the widening gap between the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s lending rates, as well as tariff threats and a political crisis in Ottawa. These factors have created a favorable environment for the U.S. dollar, putting downward pressure on the Canadian dollar.
Looking ahead to 2025, GLJ forecasts a CAD/USD exchange rate averaging 0.705 USD, underpinned by steady oil and gas revenues and enhanced export capacity from major projects such as LNG Canada and the TMX and eventual resolution of internal political issues and return to normalcy in US tariff policy.
Nevertheless, the outlook for the Canadian dollar remains uncertain, shaped by global economic recovery—particularly in China—and U.S. policy decisions under the Trump administration. While near-term challenges persist, Canada’s resource-driven economy and strategic energy export position provide a degree of resilience. In the absence of significant economic or geopolitical disruptions, GLJ projects the CAD/USD exchange rate to stabilize around 0.75 USD over the long term.
In 2025, GLJ expanded its database to include forecasts for Colombia Vasconia and Castilla Crude, as well as lithium prices, reflecting the increasing focus on diverse energy and resource markets. The addition of lithium forecasts aligns with the growing global emphasis on energy transition minerals critical for electric vehicles and battery storage solutions. A separate blog, set to be published next week on the GLJ website, will explore the lithium price forecast in greater depth, offering a detailed analysis and strategic implications for the energy sector.
GLJ’s forecast values for key benchmarks is as follows:
From the Canadian Taxpayers Federation
By Kris Sims
As Liberal leadership campaigns are preparing to launch, the Canadian Taxpayers Federation is calling on all Liberal leadership candidates to commit to scrapping the carbon tax, especially with the next carbon tax hike coming on April 1.
“This was Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s costly failure and the carbon tax should go out the door with him,” said Kris Sims, CTF Alberta Director. “Why would the next Liberal leader want to keep this political millstone and continue to punish taxpayers whenever they fill up at the gas station or pay their home-heating bill?”
The new leader of the Liberal Party will face a rapidly approaching deadline for a key carbon tax decision.
Parliament resumes on March 24 and opposition parties have all promised to immediately bring down the government and trigger an election.
The carbon tax is set to increase April 1.
“A carbon tax hike in the first days of an election will absolutely infuriate taxpayers,” said Sims. “And pausing that hike would be a half measure that taxpayers would view as a silly pre-election gimmick.
“The next Liberal leader is facing a stark choice: kick off the election by hiking the carbon tax or scrap the failed scheme completely.”
Prior to the carbon tax hike last spring, a Leger poll showed 69 per cent of Canadians opposed the increase.
After the April increase, the carbon tax will cost 21 cents per litre of gasoline, 25 cents per litre of diesel and 18 cents per cubic metre of natural gas.
At those rates, the carbon tax will cost about $15 extra to fill a minivan, about $27 extra to fill a pickup truck and about $250 extra to fill a big rig truck. The average Canadian household will need to pay about $390 extra on their home heating bills for natural gas.
The Canadian Trucking Alliance reports the carbon tax cost the long haul trucking industry $2 billion in 2024.
The Parliamentary Budget Officer reports the carbon tax will cost Canadian farmers $1 billion over the next five years.
The PBO also confirmed, again, that the carbon tax costs the average Canadian family more money than they get back in rebates.
“The carbon tax makes Canadians pay more for everything, from fuel to food,” said Sims. “Continuing to punish Canadians with the pointless carbon tax would be political suicide so taxpayers expect anyone hoping to become prime minister to immediately commit to scrapping the carbon tax.”
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