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Federal government’s ’carbon-free’ electricity target far-fetched

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From the Fraser Institute

By Elmira Aliakbari and Jock Finlayson and Tegan Hill

recent report by the Canada West Foundation, which analyzed 25 major projects that entered the federal government’s review process between 2019 and 2023, found that all 25 were still stuck in the early stages (phase 1 or 2) of the four-phase process.

Did you know that the Trudeau government wants to “decarbonize” Canada’s electricity generation by 2035? That is, make carbon-free sources (e.g. wind, hydro and solar) the sole power source for electricity generation in Canada.

Is this possible? No.

As of 2023 (the latest year of available data), nearly 81 per cent of Canada’s electricity came from carbon-free sources. To replace the remaining 19 per cent that relies on fossil fuels over the next 10 years, Canada would need to add a massive amount of generation capacity.

Specifically, we would need approximately 23 new large hydroelectric dams similar in size to British Columbia’s Site C project. Of course, due to regulatory hurdles and approval processes, it takes a long time to plan and construct major electricity generation facilities in Canada. The Site C project took approximately 43 years (from initial feasibility and planning studies in 1971) to secure environmental certification in 2014. Construction finally began on the Peace River in northern B.C. in 2015 with completion expected in 2025—at a cost of at least $16 billion.

Alternatively, we would need more than two large scale nuclear power plants the size of Ontario’s Bruce Power, which took nearly two decades to complete with billions of dollars in cost overruns.

Or we’d need approximately 11,000 new large wind turbines, which would require clearing approximately 7,302 square kilometres of land (that’s larger than Prince Edward Island and nearly nine times larger than Calgary). The new turbines would also require substantial investments in backup power systems due to the wind’s intermittency, which of course would further drive-up costs across the electricity system.

And remember, as Canada’s population grows, electricity demand will increase significantly. The infrastructure mentioned above would only decarbonize Canada’s current electricity needs, without accounting for the additional capacity required to meet future demand.

And yet, despite its aggressive plan to decarbonize, the Trudeau government in 2019 introduced the Impact Assessment Act (IAA)—also known as Bill C-69—which added layers of uncertainty and complexity to project reviews. A recent report by the Canada West Foundation, which analyzed 25 major projects that entered the federal government’s review process between 2019 and 2023, found that all 25 were still stuck in the early stages (phase 1 or 2) of the four-phase process.

In other words, while Ottawa’s electricity decarbonization plan requires an unprecedented wave of new energy projects, the government’s own regulatory regime will make it harder for new projects to get off the ground.

The total costs of the federal government’s plan are incalculable. But we do know who will get hurt the most. Three provinces—Alberta, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia—depend most heavily on fossil fuels to generate electricity. In Alberta, approximately 85 per cent of electricity comes from fossil fuels, mainly natural gas, while carbon-free sources generate only 15 per cent. Clearly, Alberta and these other provinces will face the greatest challenges—and heaviest burdens—in decarbonizing their grids.

In light of the basic realities of project construction timelines, regulatory hurdles and the massive financial investment required, the Trudeau government’s target to achieve 100 per cent fossil fuel-free electricity by 2035 is far-fetched. But the costs of pursuing that target will be very real and felt by all Canadians, with the size of the costs depending largely on where you live.

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Alberta

Working to avoid future US tariffs, Alberta signs onto U.S. energy pact

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Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry and New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu of the Governors’ Coalition for Energy Security

Premier Danielle Smith has joined the Governors’ Coalition for Energy Security to further support advocacy of Alberta’s energy and environmental interests with key U.S. states.

The coalition was established in September 2024 by U.S. State governors Jeff Landry (Louisiana) and Chris Sununu (New Hampshire) with the aim of ensuring energy security, lower energy costs, increased reliability, sustainable economic development and sensible management of energy resources and the environment. With 12 U.S. states already signatories to the coalition, Alberta is the first non-U.S. state to enter into this agreement.

By expanding energy ties with the U.S. and promoting cross-border energy trade and participation, Alberta is helping to build upon its North American Energy strategy. Alberta already accounts for 56 per cent of all oil imports to the U.S. – twice as much as Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Iraq combined – which is helping to drive job creation and prosperity on both sides of the border. Natural gas also plays an important role in North America’s energy mix. Alberta is the largest producer of natural gas in Canada and remains positioned to support the U.S. in filling their domestic supply gaps.

“I am honoured to join the Governors’ Coalition for Energy Security and would like to extend my sincere thanks to governors Landry and Sununu for the invitation. Alberta plays a vital role in North American energy security, serving as the largest supplier of crude oil and natural gas to the United States. With 200 billion barrels of recoverable oil, 200 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas, significant natural gas liquids and ample pore space for carbon capture, Alberta’s contribution is set to grow even further as we look to work with the Trump Administration and other U.S. partners to increase our pipeline capacity to our greatest friend and ally, the United States. We are proud to collaborate with this coalition of allied states in advancing energy security, reliability and affordability for Americans and Canadians.”

Danielle Smith, Premier

“Our mission as an organization has not changed but Alberta’s welcome arrival to our group sparked a conversation about what our core mission is, and that is ensuring energy security in all its forms. Our members all share the common goal of enhancing and protecting energy options for our people and businesses, which leads to lower energy costs, increased reliability, sustainable economic development and wise management of energy resources and the environment. I welcome Premier Smith and the insights she will bring as the leader from a fellow energy-producing province, that like my state, is under a federal system of government where national imperatives are not always aligned with state or provincial interests.”

Jeff Landry, governor of Louisiana

Alberta is a global leader in emissions reduction technology and clean energy solutions. The province has captured about 14 million tonnes of carbon dioxide through carbon capture, utilization and storage technology, and has the ability to support the U.S. in developing new infrastructure and supply chains for future energy markets in the areas of hydrogen, renewables, small modular reactors and others.

Alberta is also unlocking its untapped geological potential to help meet the increasing demand for minerals – many of which are used worldwide to manufacture batteries, cell phones, energy storage cells and other products. This includes the province’s lithium sector where Alberta’s government is supporting several innovative projects to develop new ways to extract and concentrate lithium faster and with higher recovery rates that are less capital and energy intensive and have a smaller land-use footprint.

As part of this coalition, Alberta looks forward to sharing best practices with states that already have expertise in these areas.

Quick facts

  • The U.S. is Alberta’s largest trading partner, with C$188 billion in bilateral trade in 2023.
  • In 2023, energy products accounted for approximately C$133.6 billion, or more than 80 per cent of Alberta’s exports to the U.S.
  • The Governors’ Coalition for Energy Security’s 12 signatory states include Louisiana, New Hampshire, Indiana (Governor Eric Holcomb), Alabama (Governor Kay Ivey), Georgia (Governor Brian Kemp), Tennessee (Governor Bill Lee), South Dakota (Governor Kristi Noem), Mississippi (Governor Tate Reeves), Arkansas (Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders), Oklahoma (Governor Kevin Stitt), Wyoming (Governor Mark Gordon) and Virginia (Governor Glenn Youngkin).

 

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Business

Ottawa’s emissions cap another headache for consumers and business

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From Resource Works

Ottawa’s emissions cap for oil and gas aims to cut emissions but risks raising costs for consumers and disrupting industry stability.

Ottawa has brought down a new emissions cap for the oil and gas industry, with a mandate to reduce emissions by 35 percent from 2019 levels by 2030 to support the federal government’s climate targets. While the federal government is celebrating the cap as a big step towards a more sustainable future, it is going to make life harder for consumers and businesses alike.

This cap is coming in at a time when the oil sector is finally gaining greater stability due to the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline (TMX), and the mandate would undermine that progress and press greater costs upon households and industries that are already adjusting to high inflation and uncertainty in world markets.

Now that TMX is operational, Canada’s oil producers have grown their access to international markets, most importantly in Asia and the West Coast of the United States. Much-needed price stability now exists for Western Canadian Select (WCS), cutting the discount against the U.S. West Texas Intermediate benchmark, enabling Canadian oil to compete more effectively.

Newfound stability means that Canadian consumers and businesses have benefited from slightly lower prices, and that industry has grown less dependent on a more limited domestic demand. However, Ottawa’s emissions cap does threaten this new balance, and the sector now has to deal with compliance costs that could be passed down to consumers.

In order to meet the cap’s targets, Canadian oil producers must heavily invest in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, which is costly but essential. Major CCS projects include Shell’s Quest and the Alberta Carbon Trunk Line, both of which are already operational.

The Pathways Alliance is a coalition of six major oil sands companies and is preparing to invest in one of the world’s largest networks for carbon storage. These efforts are crucial for reducing emissions, despite requiring vast amounts of capital.

Those in the industry are worrying that the emissions cap will push resources away from production and, instead, towards compliance, adding costs that will be borne by fuel prices and other consumer products.

Ottawa has portrayed the cap as an essential measure for meeting the federal government’s climate goals, with Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson labeling it “technically achievable.” Nonetheless, industry players argue that the timeline does not align with the practicalities of scaling CCS and other strategies aimed at decarbonizing.

Strathcona Resources executive chairman Adam Waterous pointed out the “stroke-of-the-pen” risk, in which shifting political landscapes imperil ongoing investments in carbon capture. Numerous oil producers feel that without certainty in carbon price stability, Ottawa’s cap will result in an unstable business environment that will push investment away from production.

Business leaders do not share the federal government’s optimism about the cap and see it as a one-sided approach that fails to reckon with market realities. The Pathways Alliance, which includes companies like Suncor Energy and Canadian Natural Resources, has been frustrated in its multiple attempts to get federal support to fund its $16.5-billion CCS project.

Rather than imposing these new limits, energy industry advocates argue that the government should provide targeted incentives like “carbon contracts for difference” (CCfDs), which help to stabilize carbon credit prices and reduce financial risk among investors. These measures would enable the energy sector to decarbonize without putting a greater burden on consumers.

The cap’s timing also raises concerns about the Canada-U.S. relationship. Canada has traditionally been a stable supplier of energy and helps to bolster U.S. energy security. However, as the U.S. increases its reliance on Canadian oil, the cap could disrupt this trade relationship. Lowered production levels would leave the economies of both the U.S. and Canada vulnerable, potentially disrupting energy prices and supply stability.

For households across Canada, the emissions cap could mean further financial strain. The higher costs of compliance passed to oil producers will mean higher prices at the pump and more expensive heating costs at a time when Canadian consumers are already struggling financially.

Businesses will also face increasing operating costs, which will be passed down to consumers via more expensive goods and services. Furthermore, higher costs and reduced production will erode Canada’s competitive advantage in the global energy market, slowing economic growth and risking job losses in the energy sector.

So, while Ottawa can laud its emissions cap as a necessary action on the climate, the implications for consumers and businesses are tremendous. Working with industry to find pragmatic, collaborative solutions is how Ottawa can avoid creating more financial burdens for Canadians.

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