National
Former BC Premier John Horgan passes away at 65
From Resource Works
He will be remembered as a principled, pragmatic, and honest man, and a popular premier during uncertain times.
John Horgan has passed away at 65 after a courageous third battle with cancer.
A born-and-raised Vancouver Islander, Horgan was a tough and resilient man who will be remembered as a popular, pragmatic premier who brought principles and honesty with him while navigating a changing economic and political landscape.
Regardless of partisan affiliation or belief, there is no question that Horgan truly loved his home province of BC and cared deeply for its people and their future.
Horgan’s path to the premier’s office took him across Canada and beyond, first from Victoria to Ontario, then on to Australia, before returning home to Vancouver Island. Between attending university as a young man, Horgan worked in a pulp mill in Ocean Falls, a small community on the Central Coast of BC. This experience provided him with real insight into the province’s resource sector and the communities that depended on it then—and still do today.
From the 1990s, Horgan worked for the BC New Democratic Party in various staff roles before starting his own business after 2001. In 2005, he returned to politics by being elected as the MLA for Malahat-Juan de Fuca (now Langford-Juan de Fuca). Horgan was re-elected five times by the riding’s voters.
In 2014, Horgan became the leader of the BC NDP, and in 2017, he became Premier of BC, the first NDP premier in 16 years. Once in the premier’s office, Horgan championed pragmatic, progressive policies that strove to balance economic growth with sustainability. His work in developing the province’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector was invaluable.
From the outset, Horgan recognized LNG’s potential to modernize the BC economy and make it a key player in global energy markets, and he worked hard to attract investment to the sector. In 2018, he unveiled a new LNG framework that paved the way for LNG Canada’s $40 billion investment in a project that would bring thousands of jobs to northern BC.
Horgan was confident that the LNG sector could coexist with his government’s climate goals and that BC would play a role in reducing global carbon emissions. His pragmatic, forward-thinking vision centered on the ambitious goal of exporting LNG to Asian markets to help them reduce their reliance on higher-emitting energy sources.
Forestry was another sector where Horgan made his mark. Having once worked in a pulp mill, Horgan recognized the importance of forestry to both the province’s history and economy. His approach emphasized sustainability and partnerships with First Nations, while increasing domestic production and reducing log exports. His attempts to modernize forestry had mixed results, but there was no questioning the honesty and good faith he brought to the table.
Another notable aspect of Horgan’s leadership was his commitment to the rule of law, even when it aroused frustration from fellow progressives. In 2020, during the Coastal GasLink protests, Horgan made it clear that the court rulings in favor of the project meant it would proceed regardless. That same year, Horgan acknowledged that the Trans Mountain pipeline project, which his government opposed, would move forward after another court ruling mandated its completion.
It should also be noted that court rulings were some of the only defeats he ever faced as premier, as he led the NDP to a historic victory in the 2020 election. Horgan was also unafraid to take responsibility for policies that went awry, such as stepping back from an unpopular $789-million proposal to rebuild the Royal BC Museum and accepting the blame for it.
Horgan’s leadership of BC during the COVID-19 oubtreak is another part of his legacy that will not be forgotten, especially his trust in British Columbians to be responsible, leading to some of Canada’s most relaxed restrictions during the pandemic.
In 2022, Horgan stepped down after beating cancer for the second time in his life, saying, “While I have a lot of energy, I must acknowledge this may not be the case two years from now.”
Perhaps one of the most important aspects of Horgan’s legacy was that he was a well-liked politician across the political spectrum. While many disagreed with him over policies, few could question that he was an honest and principled leader when it came to steering economic change, respecting the rule of law, and taking responsibility for his actions as premier.
Horgan was a fair, honest, and open-minded man—qualities shared by the best people we meet in life and ones we can only hope all politicians will emulate. We will miss John Joseph Horgan and send our heartfelt condolences to his family, especially his wife and two children.
Business
Claiming the Carbon Tax is Not Inflationary Defies Belief ā So Do Media Reports About Inflation
From EnergyNow.ca
By Jim Warren
Back in March 2019, the average price for a pound of lean ground beef at five major chain grocery outlets in Regina was $4.71. In September 2024 lean ground at the five big chain outlets averaged $7.90 — a 68% increase over the past five years… these price increases are a far cry from the official statistic for accumulated inflation of 21% over the same period.
Kudos to the Canadian Trucking Alliance (CTA). They have provided us with some valuable insight into the inflationary effects of Canada’s carbon tax.
This past August, the CTA published a brief to the federal government which among other things called for a moratorium on the carbon tax for diesel fuel.
In commenting on the brief, CTA president Stephen Laskowski said, “The carbon tax on diesel fuel is currently having zero impact on the environment and is only serving to needlessly drive up costs for every good purchased by Canadian families and businesses. The carbon tax needs to be repealed from diesel fuel until viable propulsion alternatives are available for the industry and the Canadian supply chain to choose from.”
The CTA estimates that as of 2024 the carbon tax on diesel adds an extra cost for long-haul truck operators of $15,000 to $20,000 or around 6% of per truck in annual operating costs. The brief to government claims a small trucking business with five trucks, “is seeing between $75,000 and $100,000 in extra costs due to the carbon tax.”
Obviously, truckers striving to remain solvent will be doing their utmost to pass carbon tax costs on to their customers. If the cost of the tax can’t be recouped by some trucking companies, we can bet there will be fewer of them operating over the coming years. As Laskowksi said, the carbon tax increased the cost of virtually every product transported by truck—which means pretty well every physical good consumers purchase.
In light of the political beating the Liberals have been taking over the carbon tax, the Trudeau government has taken a tiny feeble step toward relieving the pressure on businesses. In October 2024 federal finance minister Chrystia Freeland announced the government’s intention to provide carbon tax rebates to businesses with fewer than 500 employees. That means many of Canada’s trucking companies will be eligible to recoup some of the carbon tax they have been paying since fiscal 2019-2020. Freeland says the cheques will be in the mail this December.
It sounds okay until you look at the fine print.
The payments will not reflect the amount of fuel a business uses or how much carbon tax it has paid over the past five years. The rebates will be based on the number of people a company employs and will be paid only in provinces where the federal fuel charge applies. An accounting business with 10 employees will receive the same carbon tax rebate as a small trucking business with 10 employees. A CBC news report pulled the following example from Freeland’s press release, “A business in Ontario with 10 employees can expect to receive $4,010…”
Freeland boasted, “These are real, significant sums of money. They’re going to make a big difference to Canadian small business.”
Freeland’s statement is patently false when it comes to trucking companies.
Let’s say that the 10 employee business is a long-haul trucking company based in Ontario. After paying the carbon tax on five or more trucks for five years, the business would receive a paltry $4,010 rebate. That light dusting of sugar won’t make the carbon tax any more palatable to the trucking industry. According to the CTA’s estimates, if the 10 employee long-haul trucking firm had just five trucks the carbon tax will have cost it approximately $400,000 in operating costs over the past five years.
Carbon tax costs are not the only inflation related frustration affecting Canadians. The way the federal government and its friends in the media describe inflation presents people with a warped view of what is happening to the cost of living. Media reports on inflation rarely reflect the lived experience of people trying to pay the mortgage, feed their families and drive to work.
Governments, and their media apologists, in both Canada and the US have been taking victory laps over the past year because the rate of inflation has decreased. It’s as though people have nothing to worry about because the cost of living this year isn’t increasing as fast as it was last year. Changes in the inflation rate may be important for statistical purposes but they don’t reflect reality for people who have been coping with increases in inflation over several years. Most people measure the difficulties caused by inflation by comparing how much more things cost today than they did three to five years ago. The figure regular civilians, as opposed to statisticians, use to assess increases in the cost of living is accumulated inflation. However, we still need to be cautious about the accumulated inflation rate that we get when using government data.
If we calculate the rate of accumulated inflation based on official annualized inflation rates from 2019 up to the midpoint of 2024. The accumulated increase over that five year period is around 21%. And, it is true that this number better reflects people’s perception of inflation than a statistical comparison indicating the rate of inflation fell from 3.9 % in 2023 to 2.61% by the mid-point of 2024. The problem is the 21% number still does not accurately reflect increases in the cost of many necessary goods and services that are impacting households. This is why according to political polls voters in Canada and the US aren’t buying government propaganda when it comes to inflation.
The economy, and by extension, the high cost of living was a major issue in the recent US federal election campaign. The Democrats did not do themselves any favours claiming Bidenomics had wrestled inflation to the ground simply because it wasn’t increasing as fast as it was a year ago. A large number of voters in the US embraced former US president Lyndon Johnson’s maxim, “Don’t piss on my leg and tell me it’s raining.”
But wait, it gets worse. The basket of goods and services the Canadian government uses to calculate the cost of living index and the inflation rate fails to identify high increases in the prices for specific household essentials including many grocery staples. Similarly, official calculations for statistically weighted national average consumption of various products used to calculate the Consumer Price Index are skewed in favour of big urban centres. Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver are over represented. There is no way that the average annual consumption of gasoline for a household in downtown Montreal comes anywhere close to the amount used in most of Canada where public transit is scarce and distances are great. The result is the official accumulated inflation rate fails to show what many people are experiencing in most regions of the country.
Here is a good example of how published statistics don’t reflect the inflation shock that consumers experience at the grocery store. Back in March 2019, the average price for a pound of lean ground beef at five major chain grocery outlets in Regina was $4.71. In September 2024 lean ground at the five big chain outlets averaged $7.90 — a 68% increase over the past five years. The price of rib eye steak increased by even more. Rib eyes averaged $14.91 per pound at the five stores in Regina in March 2019. This September, the average price for rib eye steak was $29.40 – a 97% increase over five years. Obviously, these price increases are a far cry from the official statistic for accumulated inflation of 21% over the same period. (FYI: the data presented here was derived from Beef Business magazine published by the Saskatchewan Stock Growers Association. Each bimonthly edition of Beef Business features a retail beef price check)
Assuming we can find similar rates of accumulated inflation for other staples like dairy products and fresh vegetables it’s no wonder smart shoppers have been incensed over what’s going on with grocery prices and the cost of living (not to mention price increases for fuel, rents house prices and mortgage interest). Consumers have discovered today’s prices of $6.50 for a four litre jug of milk and $7.00 for a pound of butter aren’t going to be reduced simply because the rate of inflation has decreased form 3.69% to 2.61% over the past year. Using history as our guide, with the exception of rare periods of deflation such as the depression of the 1930s, it is unlikely we’ll see the price increases of the past few years come down other than for sales or loss leader strategies. And, while a 72 cent dollar might boost sales for some of our exports, it will add more than 25% to the cost of imported fruit and vegetables this winter,
Furthermore, the impacts of inflation are being more severely felt by Canadians today than they would have been a decade ago. This is because our per capita national income (using GDP as a proxy for national income) has been shrinking since 2014. That was the year oil prices fell into an eight year depression and the last full year before Justin Trudeau became Prime minister.
According to a 2024 Fraser Institute Bulletin authored by Alex Whelan, Milagros Placios and Lawrence Shembri, “Canadians have been getting poorer relative to residents of other countries in the OECD [a club of mostly rich countries]. From 2002 to 2014, Canadian income growth, as measured by GDP per capita, roughly kept pace with the rest of the OECD. From 2014 to 2022, however, Canada’s position declined sharply, ranking third lowest among 30 countries for average growth over the period.”
Canada’s per capita GDP/national income for 2024 is projected to be $54,866.05. According Whelan, Placios and Shembri, that is lower than per capita national income in the US, UK, New Zealand and Austrailia.
Only one US state, Mississippi, the poorest state in the union, has a per capita GDP/national income less than Canada’s. Mississippi’s total is $53,061. Other states considered poor by US standards such as Alabama and Arkansas have higher per capita GDPs than Canada. On average, Canadians have increasingly less money with which to buy more expensive goods and services.
The challenges Canadians have faced as a result of the high cost of living have coincided with the eight plus years that Justin Trudeau has been prime minister. The decline in per capita national income also occurred under Trudeau’s watch—in conjunction with Liberal policies designed to stifle growth in Canada’s petroleum and natural gas industries. What did the Trudeau Liberals think would happen to growth in per capita national income after they handcuffed our single most important export industry?
In the final analysis it’s a tossup. Do we have an inflation problem or is inflation just a symptom of our Trudeau problem?
Business
Canadians should expect even more spending in federal fall economic statement
From the Fraser Institute
By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro
The Trudeau government will soon release its fall economic statement. Though technically intended to be an update on the fiscal plan in this year’s budget, in recent years the fall economic statement has more closely resembled a “mini-budget” that unveils new (and often significant) spending commitments and initiatives.
Let’s look at the data.
The chart below includes projections of annual federal program spending from a series of federal budgets and updates, beginning with the 2022 budget and ending with the latest 2024 budget. Program spending equals total spending minus debt interest costs, and represents discretionary spending by the federal government.
Clearly, there’s a trend that with every consecutive budget and fiscal update the Trudeau government revises spending estimates upwards. Take the last two fiscal years, 2023/24 and 2024/25, for example. Budget 2022 projected annual program spending of $436.5 billion for the 2023/24 fiscal year. Yet the fall economic statement released just months later revised that spending estimate up to $449.8 billion, and later releases showed even higher spending.
The issue is even more stark when examining spending projections for the current fiscal year. Budget 2022 projected annual spending of $441.6 billion in 2024/25. Since then, every subsequent fiscal release has revised that estimate higher and higher, to the point that Budget 2024 estimates program spending of $483.6 billion for this year—representing a $42.0 billion increase from the projections only two years ago.
Meanwhile, as spending estimates are revised upwards, plans to reduce the federal deficit are consistently pushed off into later years.
For example, the 2022 fall economic statement projected a deficit of $25.4 billion for the 2024/25 fiscal year, and declining deficits in the years to come, before reaching an eventual surplus of $4.5 billion in 2027/28. However, subsequent budgets and fiscal updates again revised those estimates. The latest budget projects a deficit of $39.8 billion in 2024/25 that will decline to a $26.8 billion deficit by 2027/28. In other words, though budgets and fiscal updates have consistently projected declining deficits between 2024/25 and 2027/28, each subsequent document has produced larger deficits throughout the fiscal outlook and pushed the timeline for balanced budgets further into the future.
These data illustrate the Trudeau government’s lack of accountability to its own fiscal plans. Though the unpredictable nature of forecasting means the government is unlikely to exactly meet future projections, it’s still reasonable to expect it will roughly follow its own fiscal plans. However, time and time again Canadians have been sold a certain plan, only to have it change dramatically mere months later due to the government’s unwillingness to restrain spending. We shouldn’t expect the upcoming fall economic statement to be any different.
Authors:
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