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Dan McTeague

Ottawa’s intentional destruction of western wealth

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From Canadians for Affordable Energy

Dan McTeague

Written By Dan McTeague

Even if it fails to hit its emissions targets (which it will,) the economic consequences of enacting this plan are very serious. It would make Canada the only country in the world which willingly and purposefully stifles its single largest revenue stream. 

At this point, everyone in Canada has heard about the Carbon Tax and had a chance to experience its negative effects. But less has been said about another harmful policy dreamed up by the Trudeau government — the Emissions Cap on the oil and gas sector. Just like the Carbon Tax, the Emissions Cap is part of Trudeau’s larger program to try and achieve “Net Zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, which will have no positive impact on the environment, but which will be ruinous to Canada’s natural resource sector and to the national economy.

In their 2021 platform, the Liberals made a commitment to “cap and cut emissions from the oil and gas sector” and proclaimed that that industry must reduce emissions “at a pace and scale needed to achieve net-zero by 2050.” As promised, in December 2023 the Trudeau government proposed an Emissions Cap to reduce GHG emissions in the oil and gas sector by 42 percent by 2030. Keep in mind Canada contributes only 1.5% of global emissions, so this plan, even if accomplished, would reduce global emissions by less than one half of one percent.

Even if it fails to hit its emissions targets (which it will,) the economic consequences of enacting this plan are very serious. It would make Canada the only country in the world which willingly and purposefully stifles its single largest revenue stream. After all, the oil and gas industry generates $45 billion per year in annual economic activity, and contributes $170 billion per year to the GDP.

But don’t take my word for it. According to a Deloitte report commissioned by the Government of Alberta, an Emissions Cap would lead to a 10% decrease in Alberta’s oil production and a 16% decrease in conventional natural gas production. Fossil fuel production would decrease in B.C., Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland as well. Other industries connected to the oil and gas sector such as the mining, refinery products, and utilities are also expected to be impacted and will experience a decrease in output in Alberta and the rest of Canada.

The report goes on to state that in 2040 “Alberta’s GDP is estimated to be lower by 4.5% and Canada’s GDP by 1.0% compared to the baseline.”

It notes that because it is assumed that “the Cap is a permanent measure, the shift in the output of the oil and gas sector and associated losses are permanent and accumulate over time. Cumulatively, over the 2030 to 2040 period, we estimate that real GDP in Alberta is $191 billion lower and real GDP in the Rest of Canada is $91 billion lower, compared to the baseline scenario ($2017 dollars).”

Of course, the environmentalists will crow that the oil and gas industry is dying anyway and the demand for oil and gas around the world is slowly decreasing, but this is simply not true.

Global demand for oil and gas is only growing and will continue to do so. According to the report, “Based on current policy and before the impact of the Cap, we expect: Oil production in Canada to increase by 27% by 2030 and 32% by 2040 from 2021 levels; and Gas production in Canada to increase by 10% by 2030 and 16% by 2040 from 2021 levels.”

And this isn’t the only study which projects negative outcomes from this policy. The Montreal Economic Institute (MEI) released a study which describes how the Trudeau government’s proposed Emissions Cap for the energy sector would “cost the Canadian economy between $44.8 billion and $79.3 billion a year” and would “cause substantial losses, without achieving any net reduction in global emission.”

You can read the study here.

Plus it is worth noting that this emissions cap will result in “substantial losses without achieving any net reduction in global emissions.”

Why? Because of the increase in global demands for oil and gas, we can either produce those resources here or get them from another country that has no environmental, much less labour standards, such as Russia, Venezuela, and Iran.

To add insult to injury for the oil and gas producing provinces, and as I’ve pointed out in the past, this cap on emissions would apply only to the oil and gas sector. This emissions cap would not apply to the concrete industry, the automotive industry, or the mining industry. And — surprise surprise — it certainly won’t apply to Montreal’s lucrative jet-building industry.

But take heed: this isn’t simply an Alberta issue. This is a Canadian issue and one that everyone in Canada should be concerned about.

The umbrella of Net Zero by 2050 is large and far reaching, and an emissions cap is simply one part of a multi-layered attack on our economy and way of life. Carbon taxes, layered on top of a Clean Fuel Standard, layered on top of pipeline blockages, layered on top of Bills C-48 and C-69, preventing oil from being shipped from other parts of the world — will run counter to our national interests, and endanger the Canadian way of life for generations to come.

If Canadians are now vehemently opposed to carbon taxes, as we suggested would be the case half a dozen years ago, wait for this unnecessary burden to befall them.

In the words made famous by the Canadian rock legend BTO, “You ain’t seen nothing yet!”

Dan McTeague is President of Canadians for Affordable Energy.

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Dan McTeague

The Carbon Tax ship is sinking

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From Canadians for Affordable Energy

Dan McTeague

Written By Dan McTeague

In a shocking turn of events, just weeks before the upcoming provincial election, Eby said that if re-elected his government would end the provincial carbon tax on consumers, provided the federal government removed the “legal backstop” that requires them to keep a tax in place.

Here’s a surprising development – the Carbon Tax, which was a keystone policy of the Green Left just a few short years ago is now a political pariah. Though, for some of us, it isn’t so surprising.

As you will recall, the federal Carbon Tax back was one of the Trudeau Liberals’ first announcements upon taking power. It was meant to set the tone for their commitment to tackling the “climate crisis,” and achieving net zero carbon emissions. The policy required that all provinces and territories which did not have their own carbon pricing scheme in place would have one imposed on them by Ottawa.

The Carbon Tax had buy-in from Green apologists all over the country, including many Conservative politicians. You may recall Patrick Brown, former leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party, stunning an audience of PC Members in 2016 when he announced. “Climate change is a fact… We have to do something about it, and that something includes putting a price on carbon.” Ever the political opportunist, Brown had bought into the notion that you can’t win if you aren’t in favor of a carbon tax.

And that is how it was sold. The carbon tax was inevitable. And it would come with all sorts of environmental benefits – ending forest fires, floods, and combatting all manner of bad weather. Plus, the price would mainly be paid by greedy corporations. The average Canadian, they said, would actually be getting more money back on the tax rebate than they’d paid in the first place. In their telling, the carbon tax sounded like it was all carrots and no sticks!

Of course, that was too good to be true. There were, in fact, plenty of sticks. Sky-high gas prices, heating bills, food prices, and an overall increase in our cost of living. Eventually the Parliamentary Budget Office issued a report which confirmed what many Canadians had already learned, that the tax would be a net loss for most households, with the middle class being particularly hard hit.

No wonder public support started to wane, and then to spiral. Even Trudeau’s desperate rebranding – he started calling the tax “pollution pricing” – couldn’t save it.

Leger poll released earlier this year revealed that 7 in 10 Canadians do not support the Carbon Tax. It helps that Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has made ‘Axe the Tax’ a cornerstone of his campaign, consistently making the case that the Carbon Tax is harming consumers and making the country less competitive.

What was once considered the unsinkable Carbon Tax is now taking on water. And lots of it.

We saw early signs of this earlier this year when the annual Carbon Tax increase, scheduled for April 1st, was loudly opposed by a number of premiers. Even Liberal premiers, such as Andrew Furey of Newfoundland and Labrador, pleaded with Justin Trudeau to hit pause on the increase.

More recently, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has been waffling on the tax as currently structured, suggesting that it has “put the burden on the backs of working people.” Of course, as the Conservatives like to remind him, Singh voted in favor of this same tax twenty-four times in the House of Commons.

But perhaps the most significant nail in the carbon tax coffin came courtesy BC Premier David Eby. Remember that it was BC, under the Liberal premier Gordon Campbell, who implemented the first Carbon Tax in 2008 – not just the first in Canada, but rather, the provincial government claims, the first “revenue neutral” Carbon Tax in the world!

The Carbon Tax has been a hallmark of BC’s climate policies for nearly two decades. But in a shocking turn of events, just weeks before the upcoming provincial election, Eby said that if re-elected his government would end the provincial carbon tax on consumers, provided the federal government removed the “legal backstop” that requires them to keep a tax in place.

With Eby’s main opposition also pledged to repeal, it seems that even in the policy’s birthplace, no one wants to touch the carbon tax with a ten foot pole!

Now Eby defended the move by claiming essentially that the Trudeau Liberals’ fumbling of the issue has “badly damaged” what he says was the political consensus on the carbon tax. But the reality is that this was bound to happen eventually. In my capacity as President of Canadians for Affordable Energy, I’ve been warning Canadians for years that Trudeau’s carbon tax increase, compounded by his Clean Fuel Standard, which I’ve dubbed the Second Carbon Tax, would not only raise the price of fuel, but would increase the price of all goods, groceries included.

Once Canadians saw what the tax actually cost, and felt its devastating impact on their ability to make ends meet, to fill their gas tanks, heat their homes, and feed their families, they were bound to turn against it. This is exactly what we’re seeing now. And with elections looming, as go the voters so go the politicians who need their votes.

It seems the Carbon Tax is sinking and the rats are jumping ship.

Dan McTeague is President of Canadians for Affordable Energy.

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Automotive

Current EV strategy charging ahead to failure

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Dan McTeague  Written By Dan McTeague

For years now I’ve been saying that electric vehicles, and EV mandates, are bad for Canada.

Back in 2020, when the then-CEO of Toyota, Akio Toyoda, voiced his concerns that governments were moving too fast in their push for an all-electric car market when there were other good options available which didn’t require the same multi-billion dollar infrastructure overhaul or increase in electricity generation, I asked why we weren’t listening to a man who knows his own business.

When Europe found itself in an energy crisis in the winter of 2022, and the Swiss government asked its citizens to avoid driving their EVs, even considering an outright ban, to protect their fragile electricity grid, I said that with our already-strained grid we were seeing our future playing out before us in Switzerland and mandates or no, consumers just wouldn’t stand for it.

And more recently, as stories have piled up of EVs’ vulnerability to the cold — “We got a bunch of dead robots out here,” as one frustrated EV owner put it, surrounded by frozen EVs that had run out of juice while waiting for a charge in a cold snap — I’ve asked over and over again, why on earth our government is trying to force the large scale adoption of an automobile technology which functions so poorly in a normal Canadian winter.

I take no pleasure in being proved right, but nearly every day brings about a new story of EVs failing to meet the lofty expectations our leaders have set for them.

  • Recent headlines have trumpeted the difficulties EV drivers are having getting their cars fixed, because so few mechanics know how to work on them.
  • People are finding that the resale value of their EV is falling at a much faster rate than their neighbour’s reliable internal combustion engine vehicle.
  • Rental car companies like Hertz have been taking major losses after over-investing in EVs, that no one wants to rent. Apparently people don’t like the idea of pinning their vacation on a car they might not be able to charge.
  • And major auto manufacturers have been significantly scaling back their annual EV production, despite impending mandates which will force consumers to buy their product in just over a decade.

Even with the generous government subsidies handed to Ford in order to produce made-in-Canada electric SUVs, that company has decided to push their release date for the vehicles back two years — a decision that means layoffs for the majority of the 2,700 workers at the plant, according to the Globe and Mail. GM has followed suit, with recent  reports  claiming that they are “having a second look” at plans to build EV motors at their plant in St. Catherines, Ontario.

Those companies are beginning to accept reality, something various nations around the world have started to do, as well. The U.K., Germany, Italy, and other European countries, as well as the U.S., have had resistance to EV mandates play a big role in their politics lately. The Biden campaign was even forced to issue a statement saying, “There is no ‘EV mandate,’” after Donald Trump predicted to Detroit autoworkers that the White House’s pro-EV policies would put them out of work.

In the face of all of this, the Trudeau government continues to double down, reaffirming mandates and shovelling more and more tax dollars into the EV fire.

They should know better.

And maybe they do.

But maybe the dollars and the promises to their activist friends have just gotten so big that they feel like they can’t change course now.

Or maybe they are just too stubborn to admit that people like me were right all along, that they bet big and they bet wrong. And they can’t say they weren’t warned.

Buckle up.

Dan McTeague is President of Canadians for Affordable Energy

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