Sports
Odds Are Good Your Team Will Never Win A Title In Your Lifetime
“There’s no failure in sports. There’s good days, bad days, some days you’re able to be successful, some days you’re not. Some days it’s your turn, some days it’s not your turn. That’s what sports is about. You don’t always win. Some other people’s going to win. And this year somebody else is going to win. Simple as that.” Milwaukee star Giannis Antetokounmpo on losing in the playoffs last spring.
Antetokounmpo was simply stating the obvious math. In a time where leagues are 30 or 32 teams, media expectations are rooted in the odds of a 12- or 14-team league when playoffs were just two rounds. There’s luck and sheer numbers working against your team. Fans follow this standard that your team must win titles or be forever damned. The closer a club gets the greater the expectations.

Still reporters demanded accountability from the man who’d helped the Bucks to the 2021 NBA title. But Giannis turned it back on reporter Eric Nehm . “Oh my god. You asked me the same question last year, Eric. Do you get a promotion every year on your job? No, right? So, every year your work is a failure? Yes or no? No. Every year you work, you work toward something, toward a goal, right? Which is to get a promotion, to be able to take care of your family, provide a house for them or take care of your parents. It’s not a failure, it’s steps to success.
He has a point. In the modern age failure is relative. The traditional poster boys for “failure” are the Buffalo Bills from 1992 to 1996. After wining the AFC every one of those years Marv Levy’s team went to four Super Bowls and lost every one of them, branding them forever in the media and fan perspective as losers.
No other team has ever made four consecutive Super Bowls. Kansas City made four title games in five years. None have made it to three straight Super Bowls. The Detroit Lions have zero Super Bowl appearances before this season and have won just three times in the postseason since their NFL championship in 1957.
Even in a league with 28 teams, the Bills’ feat was remarkable. Unprecedented. And yet, because they lost all four consecutive championship games they’re an avatar of failure. When compared to dynasties such as the 1970s Miami Dolphins (two Super bowls) or the 1980s-90s San Francisco 49ers (5 Super Bowls) the Bills are seen as chokers or losers. The New England Patriots’ winning six SBs from 2002-2016 are the real outlier.)

The current poster boys for hockey failure are the Toronto Maple Leafs, without an NHL championship since 1967. That year was also the last time the Leafs appeared in the Final series. They have since made the final four five times, the most recent being 2002 when Boston dispatched them. Most fans of the team, as well as most hockey fans, see them as a punchline. But in these times of bloated leagues, a semifinal appearance is the equivalent of making it to the Finals in the six-team league of 1967.

Fans and contemporary media still think they we are living in a time when every club, given a little luck and a good draft, will reward its fans with a champions parade. That’s what the mania for parity and salary caps was about. Balancing the draft would give everyone a shot at a star who’d take them to the holy land. But with 30 or 32 teams that formula doesn’t work. There’s just one Stanley Cup. One Lombardi Trophy. And 31 disappointed fan bases.
Where the 1955-60 Montreal Canadiens, 1976-80 Habs, 1981-84 New York Islanders and 1984-1988 Edmonton Oilers defined clutch with multiple Cups in consecutive or near-consecutive seasons, today’s gold standard is closer to two and done. Detroit won four Cups but it was between 1997 and 2008. Chicago won three Cups in five years (2010-2015). Pittsburgh had three Cups in eight years (2009-2017) .
Basketball (with its smaller rosters) still has super teams dominated by LeBron James and Steph Curry. But the NFL and MLB lack the traditional domination by repeat champions. Since 2000 only the San Francisco Giants have three titles and those were from 2010-2014). While the big-budget Dodgers and Yankees have been perennial playoff teams they haven’t dominated the current 30-team league as they did in the 1970s-1990s.
It’s likely that with the NHL talking about 36 teams fans of many of those clubs will not see their team win a title in their lifetime. Parity will sound nice coming from the league, but after decades of coming up short, the odds say fans shouldn’t be praying for a title.
As Giannis says, we need a new standard of success. Michael Jordan’s great accomplishment wasn’t simply the title he brought to the Bulls, it was the totality of seasons in which his club was a viable contender. “There’s always steps to it,” said Antetokounmpo. “Michael Jordan played 15 years, won six championships. The other nine years was a failure? That’s what you’re telling me?
In our book Ice Storm on the 2008-2013 Vancouver Canucks, GM Mike Gillis made the same point when describing his formula for success with a team that has gone longest without a Cup. Understanding the place luck and injuries play, he said his description for success was having a contending team that had a puncher’s chance every year and, eventually, a title winner. Yes, there would be down years. On average, however, it would reap tiles and profits for owners.

But Gillis’ owner, Francesco Aquilini, who’d originally subscribed to this formula, panicked when a near-miss for the Cup in 2011 was followed by two first-round eliminations in subsequent years. The bleating of disappointed season-ticket holders and the criticism from hostile media moved Aquilini to replace Gills with local hero Trevor Linden. The Canucks then missed the playoffs in eight of the next eleven seasons.
Setting too high a bar is a recipe for failure to any management. Explaining the rarity of a semifinal appearance— as Giannis did— can lessen the stress. But until media cite a more realistic standard it’s unlikely anyone will cut teams losing in the playoff any slack. They may well ask what’s in it for them when owners cash a fat expansion fee and push a Cup that much further away.
Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.
Bruce Dowbiggin
Elbows Down For The Not-So-Magnificent Seven: Canada’s Wilting NHL Septet
The week after Grey Cup is always a good time to look in for our first serious analysis at how Canada’s NHL teams are doing. So let’s take a quick… WHOA… what’s happening here?
If the playoffs were to begin next week (we wish) then it would be a cold breakfast for teams in Elbows Up. Just two clubs—Winnipeg and Montreal— would even qualify for the postseason. And the Jets have just found out their star goalie Connor Hellybuyck is unlikely to play much before mid-January.
The two putative Canadian hopes for a first Stanley cup since 1993— Toronto and Edmonton— are sucking on vapour trails. After being raked 5-2 by Montreal, the Leafs have just a 24.9 percent chance of making the playoffs. Conor McDavid’s Oilers have a better percentage but their same old goaltending woes and a ticking clock on McDavid’s back.
Granted that, going into the weekend, no team in the East was more than four points out of the wild-card spot while all but three teams were within three points of a playoff spot in the West. But the Canadian teams are stuck behind some premium teams and need lotsa’ luck so they end up like Max Verstappen not Lance Stroll.
Maybe a Canadian men’s Olympic gold medal can reduce the sting of no Cup, no future for another season. But it won’t save the jobs of coaches in Calgary, Toronto and Vancouver unlikely to survive also-ran status. Let’s take a close look at the not-so-magnificent seven starting west to east.
Vancouver: The Nucks have a sterling 4 percent chance of making the postseason as of this writing. In the powerful Western Conference that’s still an insult to a franchise that hasn’t recovered from the hasty 2013 firing of GM Mike Gillis—who won… let us us see… two Presidents Trophies and six Western Conference titles in a row. Since then? Uh, bagel.
It’s nice that Elias Petterson has come back from the morgue this season. But it will come down to goalie Thatcher Demko staying healthy and whether ownership wants to go full tank or just a quarter-tank for a draft pick. Hard to see Adam Foote surviving as coach.
Calgary: Speaking of tanking, everyone in Calgary wants the Flames to do a teardown for the top picks in the 2026 Draft. Everyone, except, for the Flames absentee owner Murray Edwards and his robo-spokesman Don Maloney. They want the five percent chance at a playoff spot and a mid-round first draft pick. The Flames missed the chance to restructure in 2023 when Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk departed. But again, denialism in the management suite tried to make it an even trade with Florida, sign huge new contracts and keep pushing. Bad decision.
Only question here is when does the purge begin and what can they get to help Dustin Wolf— signed for seven more years— in net?
Edmonton: We’ve written at length here and here about the McDavid saga. He and the management team halved the baby with a short-term deal to pretend he’s staying in the Chuck. Their healthy chance of making the playoffs (75.5 percent) says one thing. Their play in the putrid Pacific— they’re given up six-goals-plus five times in just 24 games— says another. But as long as McDavid and Leon Draisaitl stay healthy they might still finesse a ticket to a their third straight Finals ride.
But if they get near the trading deadline and the postseason is a mirage the noise to trade McDavid will be deafening. And the offers staggering for a capped-out team.
Winnipeg: Last year was supposed to be the Jets big year. Okay, that didn’t work out so well. The Jets kept their core together for another chance at finally making a serious playoff run. So it will all come down, as it has in the past, to the health and playoff juju of Hellybuyck. Their ticket out of the Central Division lies in beating powerful Colorado and Dallas and, if that happens, staying healthy.
The Jets would probably just as well their stars didn’t go get beat up in the Olympics, but that’s unlikely. There’s always been a karma about Winnipeg breaking the Canada Cup jinx. Still a long shot.

EAST
Toronto: So you’re saying Mitch Marner wasn’t the problem with the highly rated Maple Leafs never getting as far as the Conference Finals? They’re 3-5-2 in their last ten, their captain is still a sulky figure— only now his output doesn’t make it worthwhile. And the Toronto media is trying to do the players’ will to get coach Craig Berube fired for them. The same problems remain from years previous: dubious goaltending and a shallow talent pool on defence.
The biggest problem for the Leafs is their closing window for success. They’re old, have few tradeable assets in the system and have traded top picks away for short-term gains that never appeared. Expect fireworks after the Olympics if this crate doesn’t get moving. New MLSE boss Keith Pelley has no ties to the current administration and will sweep clean.
Ottawa: The Sens have managed to survive the loss of captain Brad Tkachuck to a broken finger. How? Ottawa have gotten goals from 17 different players which means they have balance. And so far they are above average 5-on-5. All good. They’ve also taken advantage of the mediocrity of the Leafs and other Eastern teams to stay afloat.
Their Achilles heel? Between the pipes. Both goalies have a save percentage under .875 and that ain’t going to cut it come spring. As always finances will limit their trades and manoeuvrability.

Montreal: The Habs were the fashionable pick before the season as the Canadian team most likely to get to the Cup they last won in 1993. Defenceman Laine Hutson is all that he promised last year. The dynamic top line of Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky have cast back to the days of the Flying Frenchmen. Managing expectations in Montreal’s rabid hockey culture— where a misplaced apostrophe can cause chaos—means never taking anything for granted.
Now if only goaltender Jacob Dobes can keep up his play long enough for Sam Montembault to regain his form the Habs could be a thing in the spring. At this rate they might be the only thing.
Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, his new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.
Alberta
Edmonton and Red Deer to Host 2027 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship
News release from the Red Deer Rebels and Hockey Canada
Hockey Canada, in partnership with the Canadian Hockey League (CHL) and International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF), has announced that the 2027 IIHF World Junior Championship will be played in Edmonton and Red Deer, Alberta, from Dec. 26, 2026 to Jan. 5, 2027.
The successful bid represents a partnership between OEG Sports & Entertainment, the Red Deer Rebels, Hockey Alberta, the Cities of Edmonton and Red Deer, and the Province of Alberta, which made an $11 million commitment in February 2024 to host events in communities throughout the province.
“We are excited to bring the IIHF World Junior Championship back to Edmonton and Red Deer, and to give hockey fans in Alberta and across the country the opportunity to watch the top under-20 players compete for a gold medal right here in Canada,” said Dean McIntosh, senior vice-president of revenue, fan experience and community impact with Hockey Canada. “Both cities have been successful hosts of IIHF and other high-profile international events, and we know our partners in Edmonton and Red Deer will host a world-class event for players, teams, fans and volunteers alike.”
The 18,500-seat Rogers Place, home of the National Hockey League’s Edmonton Oilers and Western Hockey League’s Edmonton Oil Kings, will serve as the primary competition venue and host 17 games, including both semifinals and the medal games. The additional 14 games are set for the 7,050-seat Marchant Crane Centrium, home of the WHL’s Red Deer Rebels.
“Alberta is ready to welcome visitors from around the world for the International Ice Hockey Federation World Junior Championship,” said Andrew Boitchenko, minister of tourism and sport for Alberta. “This event celebrates the spirit of international competition and our province’s passion for hockey, while showcasing Alberta as a world-class destination for sporting events.”
“Edmonton is thrilled to co-host the IIHF World Junior Championship. This tournament is a fantastic opportunity to watch the world’s best junior hockey players right here in our community, showcasing emerging talent and inspiring a new generation of athletes,” said Andrew Knack, mayor of Edmonton. “Hosting world-calibre events like this also injects vital tourism dollars into our local economy, boosts our city’s vibrancy, and solidifies Edmonton’s reputation as a premiere sports tourism destination.”
Edmonton last hosted the IIHF World Junior Championship in August 2022, which was rescheduled from its traditional winter slot due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The gold medal game at the 2022 event was an instant classic, with Mason McTavish making a game-saving play in overtime and Kent Johnson netting the game-winner just over a minute later to give Canada its 19th World Juniors gold medal. The city also hosted in 2021 without fans, and was a co-host with Calgary for the 2012 edition of the event. Red Deer was a co-host for the cancelled 2022 World Juniors, and first hosted the annual under-20 tournament in 1995.
“We are proud to welcome the 2027 IIHF World Junior Championship back to our region,” said Jesse Smith, chief executive officer of Tourism Red Deer. “Red Deer’s love for the game and our hospitality will ensure an unforgettable experience for every athlete and fan.”
“The World Juniors give Edmonton an extraordinary opportunity to showcase our city on the world stage,” said Arlindo Gomes, vice-president of business development and venues management with Explore Edmonton. “This event strengthens our global reputation as a premier international sport destination while delivering more than $90 million in total economic impact to our community and inspiring the next generation of hockey players and fans. Edmonton loves hockey and we cannot wait to welcome global athletes and fans.”
Pre-tournament games for the 2027 World Juniors are expected to take place throughout Alberta, allowing fans across the province to watch the best junior hockey players from 10 countries before the puck officially drops in Edmonton and Red Deer on Boxing Day.
With demand for tickets expected to exceed availability, more information about a priority ticket draw and tournament ticket packages will be announced in the coming months. Fans looking to receive updates about the 2027 IIHF World Junior Championship as soon as they become available can sign up to become a Hockey Canada Insider today.
“On behalf of all of us at OEG Sports & Entertainment, we are proud to once again be hosting the IIHF World Junior Championship and the best young stars on the planet,” said Stu Ballantyne, president and chief operating officer of Rogers Place and ICE District. “The World Juniors is one of the most celebrated tournaments in hockey, and bringing it back to Edmonton is an honour for our city, our fans and our entire organization. ICE District and Rogers Place were built to facilitate and showcase the very best in sport and entertainment, and we look forward to working closely with Hockey Canada and other partners to deliver an unforgettable experience for the athletes, fans and the global hockey community.”
“We are beyond excited for our fans, partners and community to once again welcome the hockey world to Red Deer,” said Merrick Sutter, senior vice-president of the Red Deer Rebels. “This is a community that loves events, and we know their passion will be on full display once again next December.”
For more information on Hockey Canada and the 2027 IIHF World Junior Championship, please visit HockeyCanada.ca, or follow along through social media on Facebook, X, Instagram and TikTok.
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