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Economy

Minister Wilkinson’s flawed crystal ball

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From Resource Works

The federal minister of energy and natural resources’ statements are at odds with the energy industry’s leaders and economists.

Meet Canada’s new expert on the global oil-and-gas market, and the world’s  future demand for those commodities.

He is (surprise) Jonathan Wilkinson, Canada’s federal minister of energy and natural resources, who has announced this outlook for oil:

“Oil and gas will peak this decade. In fact, oil is probably peaking this year.”

The world oil market now eats up some 102.21 million barrels per day, so Wilkinson’s anticipated peak this year would be around that much.

But that’s not what market-watchers and oil-sector experts see:

  • Goldman Sachs Research: “While some prominent forecasters have predicted oil demand will peak by 2030, our researchers expect oil usage will increase through 2034. 

“That’s in part because of demand for oil from emerging markets in Asia and demand for petrochemicals. We think peak demand is another decade away.”

  • The 2024 outlook of OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (12 of the world’s major oil-exporting nations) says simply: “There is no peak oil demand on the horizon. 

“For oil alone, we see demand reaching over 120 million barrels a day by 2050, with the potential for it to be higher.”

“What the Outlook underscores is that the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas bears no relation to fact. Combined they make up well over 50% of the energy mix today and are expected to do the same in 2050.”

  • In an outlook for 2024-2050, one scenario from energy giant BP sees this: “Oil continues to play a major role in the global energy system over the first half of the outlook, with the world consuming between 100-80 Mb/d of oil in 2035.

“Oil demand declines over the outlook but continues to play a significant role in the global energy system for the next 10-15 years. This requires continuing investment in upstream oil (and natural gas).”

  • Greg Ebel, CEO of Calgary-based Enbridge, says global oil consumption will be “well north” of 100 million barrels per day by 2050 — and could exceed 110 million barrels.

“You continue to see economic demands, and particularly in the developing world, people continue to say lighter, faster, denser, cheaper energy works for our people. . .  And that’s leading to more oil usage.”

  • Even the optimistic International Energy Agency sees global demand increasing to 105.4 million barrels a day by 2030.

So take Minister Wilkinson’s crystal-ball outlook, of oil “probably” peaking this year, with at least a barrel of salt.

Then there’s Wilkinson’s contention that continuing to rely on oil and gas “will leave Canada uncompetitive and poorer on a go-forward basis.”

If so, why did his why his government invest $4.5 billion of your taxpayer money in 2018 to buy the Trans Mountain oil pipeline system and its TMX expansion?

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland: “Because we knew it was a serious and necessary investment — one that is in the national interest and will make Canada and the Canadian economy more sovereign and more resilient.”

And from Prime Minister Trudeau: “By moving forward with TMX, we’re creating jobs, opening new markets, accelerating our clean energy transition, and generating new avenues for Indigenous economic prosperity. . . .

“This project isn’t about expanding our production. It’s about expanding our options. TMX will reduce our reliance on our single customer, the United States, and give us access to the growing markets of Asia.”

All of that seems to have escaped Minister Wilkinson and his flawed crystal ball.

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Automotive

Federal government should swiftly axe foolish EV mandate

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From the Fraser Institute

By Kenneth P. Green

Two recent events exemplify the fundamental irrationality that is Canada’s electric vehicle (EV) policy.

First, the Carney government re-committed to Justin Trudeau’s EV transition mandate that by 2035 all (that’s 100 per cent) of new car sales in Canada consist of “zero emission vehicles” including battery EVs, plug-in hybrid EVs and fuel-cell powered vehicles (which are virtually non-existent in today’s market). This policy has been a foolish idea since inception. The mass of car-buyers in Canada showed little desire to buy them in 2022, when the government announced the plan, and they still don’t want them.

Second, President Trump’s “Big Beautiful” budget bill has slashed taxpayer subsidies for buying new and used EVs, ended federal support for EV charging stations, and limited the ability of states to use fuel standards to force EVs onto the sales lot. Of course, Canada should not craft policy to simply match U.S. policy, but in light of policy changes south of the border Canadian policymakers would be wise to give their own EV policies a rethink.

And in this case, a rethink—that is, scrapping Ottawa’s mandate—would only benefit most Canadians. Indeed, most Canadians disapprove of the mandate; most do not want to buy EVs; most can’t afford to buy EVs (which are more expensive than traditional internal combustion vehicles and more expensive to insure and repair); and if they do manage to swing the cost of an EV, most will likely find it difficult to find public charging stations.

Also, consider this. Globally, the mining sector likely lacks the ability to keep up with the supply of metals needed to produce EVs and satisfy government mandates like we have in Canada, potentially further driving up production costs and ultimately sticker prices.

Finally, if you’re worried about losing the climate and environmental benefits of an EV transition, you should, well, not worry that much. The benefits of vehicle electrification for climate/environmental risk reduction have been oversold. In some circumstances EVs can help reduce GHG emissions—in others, they can make them worse. It depends on the fuel used to generate electricity used to charge them. And EVs have environmental negatives of their own—their fancy tires cause a lot of fine particulate pollution, one of the more harmful types of air pollution that can affect our health. And when they burst into flames (which they do with disturbing regularity) they spew toxic metals and plastics into the air with abandon.

So, to sum up in point form. Prime Minister Carney’s government has re-upped its commitment to the Trudeau-era 2035 EV mandate even while Canadians have shown for years that most don’t want to buy them. EVs don’t provide meaningful environmental benefits. They represent the worst of public policy (picking winning or losing technologies in mass markets). They are unjust (tax-robbing people who can’t afford them to subsidize those who can). And taxpayer-funded “investments” in EVs and EV-battery technology will likely be wasted in light of the diminishing U.S. market for Canadian EV tech.

If ever there was a policy so justifiably axed on its failed merits, it’s Ottawa’s EV mandate. Hopefully, the pragmatists we’ve heard much about since Carney’s election victory will acknowledge EV reality.

Kenneth P. Green

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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Economy

The stars are aligning for a new pipeline to the West Coast

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From Resource Works

By

Mark Carney says another pipeline is “highly likely”, and that welcome news.

While attending this year’s Calgary Stampede, Prime Minister Mark Carney made it official that a new pipeline to Canada’s West Coast is “highly likely.”

While far from a guarantee, it is still great news for Canada and our energy industry. After years of projects being put on hold or cancelled, things are coming together at the perfect time for truly nation-building enterprises.

Carney’s comments at Stampede have been preceded by a number of other promising signs.

At a June meeting between Carney and the premiers in Saskatoon, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith proposed a “grand bargain” that would include a privately funded pipeline capable of moving a million barrels of oil a day, along with significant green investments.

Carney agreed with Smith’s plan, saying that Canada needed to balance economic growth with environmental responsibility.

Business and political leaders have been mostly united in calling for the federal government to speed up the building of pipelines, for economic and strategic reasons. As we know, it is very difficult to find consensus in Canada, with British Columbia Premier David Eby still reluctant to commit to another pipeline on the coast of the province.

Alberta has been actively encouraging support from the private sector to fund a new pipeline that would fulfil the goals of the Northern Gateway project, a pipeline proposed in 2008 but snuffed out by a hail of regulations under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

We are in a new era, however, and we at Resource Works remarked that last month’s G7 meeting in Kananaskis could prove to be a pivotal moment in the history of Canadian energy. An Ipsos poll found that Canada was the most favoured nation for supplying oil in the G7, and our potential as an energy superpower has never been more important for the democratic world, given the instability caused by Russia and other autocratic energy powers.

Because of this shifting, uncertain global climate, Canadian oil and gas are more attractive than ever, and diversifying our exports beyond the United States has become a necessity in the wake of Donald Trump’s regime of tariffs on Canada and other friendly countries.

It has jolted Canadian political leaders into action, and the premiers are all on board with strengthening our economic independence and trade diversification, even if not all agree on what that should look like.

Two premiers who have found common ground are Danielle Smith and Ontario Premier Doug Ford. After meeting at Stampede, the pair signed two memorandums of understanding to collaborate on studying an energy corridor and other infrastructure to boost interprovincial trade. This included the possibility of an eastward-bound pipeline to Ontario ports for shipping abroad.

Ford explicitly said that “the days of relying on the United States 100 percent, those days are over.” That’s in line with Alberta’s push for new pipeline routes, especially to northwestern B.C., which are supported by Smith’s government.

On June 10, Resource Works founder and CEO Stewart Muir wrote that Canadian energy projects are a daunting endeavour, akin to a complicated jigsaw puzzle, but that getting discouraged by the complexity causes us to lose sight of the picture itself. He asserted that Canadians have to accept that messiness, not avoid it.

Prime Minister Carney has suggested he will make adjustments to existing regulations and controversial legislation like Bill C-69 and the emissions cap, all of which have slowed the development of new energy infrastructure.

This moment of alignment between Ottawa, the provinces, and other stakeholders cannot be wasted. The stars are aligning, and it will be a tragedy if we cannot take a great step into the future of our country.

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