From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

At a time when Canadians are grappling with epic housing supply and affordability challenges, the data show that homebuilding continues to come up short in some parts of the country including in several metro regions where most newcomers to Canada settle.

In both the Greater Toronto area and Metro Vancouver, housing starts have languished below levels needed to close the supply gaps that have opened up since 2019. In fact, the last 12-18 months have seen many planned development projects in Ontario and British Columbia delayed or cancelled outright amid a glut of new unsold condominium units and a sharp drop in population growth stemming from shifts in federal immigration policy.

At the same time, residential real estate sales have also been sluggish in some parts of the country. A fall-off in real estate transactions tends to have a lagged negative effect on construction investment—declining home sales today translate into fewer housing starts in the future.

While Prime Minister Carney’s Liberal government has pledged to double the pace of homebuilding, the on-the-ground reality points to stagnant or dwindling housing starts in many communities, particularly in Ontario and B.C. In July, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) revised down its national forecast for housing starts over 2025/26, notwithstanding the intense political focus on boosting supply.

A slowdown in residential construction not only affects demand for services provided by homebuilders, it also has wider economic consequences owing to the size and reach of residential construction and the closely linked real estate sector. Overall, construction represents almost 8 per cent of Canada’s economy. If we exclude government-driven industries such as education, health care and social services, construction provides employment for more than one in 10 private-sector workers. Most of these jobs involve homebuilding, home renovation, and real estate sales and development.

As such, the economic consequences of declining housing starts are far-reaching and include reduced demand for goods and services produced by suppliers to the homebuilding industry, lower tax revenues for all levels of government, and slower economic growth. The weakness in residential investment has been a key factor pushing the Canadian economy close to recession in 2025.

Moreover, according to Statistics Canada, the value of GDP (in current dollars) directly attributable to housing reached $238 billion last year, up slightly from 2023 but less than in 2021 and 2022. Among the provinces, Ontario and B.C. have seen significant declines in residential construction GDP since 2022. This pattern is likely to persist into 2026.

Statistics Canada also estimates housing-related activity supported some 1.2 million jobs in 2024. This figure captures both the direct and indirect employment effects of residential construction and housing-related real estate activity. Approximately three-fifths of jobs tied to housing are “direct,” with the rest found in sectors—such as architecture, engineering, hardware and furniture stores, and lumber manufacturing—which supply the construction business or are otherwise affected by activity in the residential building and real estate industries.

Spending on homebuilding, home renovation and residential real estate transactions (added together) represents a substantial slice of Canada’s $3.3 trillion economy. This important sector sustains more than one million jobs, a figure that partly reflects the relatively labour-intensive nature of construction and some of the other industries related to homebuilding. Clearly, Canada’s economy will struggle to rebound from the doldrums of 2025 without a meaningful turnaround in homebuilding.

Jock Finlayson

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute

MxM News

The Trump administration is preparing to roll out a sweeping new housing initiative — a 50-year fixed-rate mortgage designed to make homeownership more accessible for working- and middle-class Americans. Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte confirmed Saturday that the plan is actively in development, calling it a “complete game changer.”

“Thanks to President Trump, we are indeed working on The 50 Year Mortgage — a complete game changer,” Pulte announced on X, posting a graphic from Trump’s Truth Social page that contrasted Franklin D. Roosevelt’s 30-year New Deal mortgage program with Trump’s 50-year proposal. FDR introduced the 30-year fixed mortgage in the 1930s to lift Americans out of the Great Depression. Nearly a century later, Trump is positioning the 50-year loan as a modern counterpart — a bold step to restore the American Dream for a generation shut out of the housing market.

The proposal comes amid record-high housing prices and interest rates that have pushed the average age of first-time homebuyers to 40 — the oldest ever recorded, according to the National Association of Realtors. In decades past, first-time buyers were often in their 20s or early 30s.

Mortgage data also shows how desperate buyers have become: adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) applications, once a marginal share of the market, now account for roughly 10% of all applications — far above the post-2008 average of 6%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The surge reflects how buyers are stretching to afford homes amid high monthly payments. A 50-year fixed mortgage would significantly reduce those monthly costs, though borrowers would pay more interest over the long term.

While details are still being finalized, the plan underscores Trump’s focus on affordability and opportunity — reviving the spirit of Roosevelt’s 30-year mortgage for a new era of Americans chasing the dream of homeownership.