National
By-election Bombshell! Justin Trudeau’s Liberals lose safe Toronto riding
Benefit of hindsight
Feel free to start coming back any time, big guy
Well, of course I saw it coming all along. What kind of fool could have imagined the Liberal in Toronto — St. Paul’s had any chance?
Hang on. I’m just getting word that I didn’t see it coming. In fact, as recently as Monday night I wrote a post I’ll be hearing about until the cows come home. Sorry about that!
Here are the actual final results, barring any recounts, which may not happen because Conservative Don Stewart’s margin of victory, while slim, is too large to trigger an automatic recount.
Congratulations, Don Stewart! I never doubted you’d win. Hang on. I’m just getting word that I doubted you’d win as recently as last night.
Things will now start to happen quickly. Expect Liberals to work their way through four of the five Kübler-Ross stages of grief before lunch. Denial will come easily, benefiting as it does from long practice. Acceptance may take longer.
The Paul Wells newsletter is fun reading even when I’m calling the results of a by-election wrong! Imagine how much you’ll enjoy it when I’m right about something!
In part this is because on paper there isn’t that much to accept. The day’s news is not earth-shaking and, in isolation, should not be taken as definitive. It’s true that by-elections are strange events, though if you add them together they do have some predictive power. It’s true that Leslie Church’s long service as Chrystia Freeland’s chief of staff turned out to be more of a hindrance than a help, a data point whose implications the Deputy Prime Minister won’t want to think much about today. It’s true the Liberals didn’t even try all that hard, if by “didn’t try all that hard” you mean “they tried as hard as they possibly could, my God they tried so hard, my God.”
But a single off-season defeat in a riding the Liberals have, in fact, previously lost during the Paleozoic era is not a larger thing to accept than, say, a punishing loss to Ireland and Norway in a Security Council vote at the UN. Or the loss of two senior cabinet ministers in a controversy in which the ministers who quit were radiantly, obviously in the right. Don’t take my word on that, incidentally: ask David Lametti, who agreed with Jody Wilson-Raybould but managed to keep his job anyway. For a while.
A single by-election defeat is not a larger thing to accept than the prime minister’s documented history of slapping on dark makeup for social occasions, a habit that stretched from junior college to young adulthood. It’s not a bigger deal than firing your finance minister during a global fiscal calamity so you can replace him with somebody who knows less about money. It’s not evidence of poorer strategic thinking than the choice of Parliament as the venue for dismantling a new Conservative leader, given that Parliament has long been where Justin Trudeau and most of his government perform worst.
It’s not a bigger deal than mocking monetary policy during an election campaign. It’s not a big new development, compared to the Prime Minister’s reluctance to meet his own cabinet ministers to discuss business, an oddity of his management style that’s been documented in a growing number of books (look out for Marc Garneau’s this fall!).
The prime minister has been on the ropes before, so to speak, and all those trials have made him the man he is today. Or rather, I suppose, his response to them has. I have no particular advice for Justin Trudeau today, or to the party he leads with the unstinting consent of its members. I screwed up last night by sending a column before the facts were in, so I’m feeling a little sheepish this morning. I’ll let Liberals decide what to do next.
As recently as two summers ago, I used to give them advice. It amounted to this: Notice when something you’re doing isn’t working. Change it. Make sure people see you changing it, so you don’t look quite so full of yourself. Rinse and repeat.
That post from 2022 ends:
“Don’t worry. He won’t take this advice either. Whatever the Liberal leader does on his return from the sunless south, it probably won’t resemble anything we’ve mentioned today. He’ll probably keep doing what he’s been doing. With the same results.”
Let me read to you
My excellent short bestselling book, Justin Trudeau on the Ropes: Governing in Troubled Times, is now an audiobook, narrated by the author, who is me. Here it is on Audible. Other platforms soon.
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Here’s the story of the book, if you’re just catching up. Here’s an episode of my podcast with guest host Vassy Kapelos interviewing me about the book. Paper and ebook editions remain easy to find and buy, for yourself or friends.
We decided to make the audiobook some time after we published the, uh, more booky formats. It’s a response to surprising and gratifying demand. It’s also a promissory note: If this belated audiobook edition finds an audience, it won’t be my last.
There’s a school of thought that says there’s not much demand for nonfiction Canadian audiobooks. Here’s your chance to confound the skeptics. Thanks as always for your support.
Business
‘TERMINATED’: Trump Ends Trade Talks With Canada Over Premier Ford’s Ronald Reagan Ad Against Tariffs
From the Daily Caller News Foundation
President Donald Trump announced late Thursday that trade negotiations with Canada “ARE HEREBY TERMINATED” after what he called “egregious behavior” tied to an Ontario TV ad that used former President Ronald Reagan’s voice to criticize tariffs.
The ad at the center of the feud was funded by Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s government as part of a multimillion-dollar campaign running on major U.S. networks. The spot features Reagan warning that tariffs may appear patriotic but ultimately “hurt every American worker and consumer.”
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“They only did this to interfere with the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court, and other courts. TARIFFS ARE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY, AND ECONOMY, OF THE U.S.A,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform late Thursday. “Based on their egregious behavior, ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED.”
Ford first posted the ad online on Oct. 16, writing in a caption, “Using every tool we have, we’ll never stop making the case against American tariffs on Canada. The way to prosperity is by working together.”
The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute criticized the ad Thursday evening, saying it “misrepresents” Reagan’s 1987 radio address on free and fair trade. The foundation said Ontario did not request permission to use or alter the recording and that it is reviewing its legal options.
The president posted early Friday that Canada “cheated and got caught,” adding that Reagan actually “loved tariffs for our country.”
The ad splices audio from Reagan’s original remarks but includes his authentic statement: “When someone says, ‘let’s impose tariffs on foreign imports’, it looks like they’re doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs. And sometimes, for a short while it works, but only for a short time.”
Reagan also noted at the end of his remarks that, in “certain select cases,” he had taken steps to stop unfair trade practices against American products and added that the president’s “options” in trade matters should not be restricted, which the ad did not include.
Since returning to the White House, Trump has imposed tariffs on Canadian aluminum, steel, automobiles and lumber, arguing they are vital to protecting U.S. manufacturing and national security.
The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments in November over whether the administration overstepped its authority by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose reciprocal tariffs on dozens of nations, including Canada. Tariffs on commodities such as steel, aluminum and copper were implemented under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and are not currently being challenged, as they align with longstanding precedent established by prior administrations.
Thursday’s move marks the second time this year Trump has canceled trade talks with Ottawa. In June, he briefly halted discussions after Canada imposed a digital services tax on American tech firms, though the Canadian government repealed the measure two days later.
Elbows Up Stengthens U.S. Tariff Resolve at Canada’s Expense
The disastrously misguided “Elbows Up” campaign championed by the Carney government rooted in the fantasy that a smug, arrogant Liberal elite wields leverage over the largest economy in human history, has suffered yet another devastating blow. The latest fallout: U.S.-based truck manufacturer Paccar Inc., maker of iconic heavyweights such as Kenworth and Peterbilt, is slashing Canadian production and laying off hundreds of workers in anticipation of a 25-per-cent U.S. import tariff set to take effect next month.
Employees at Paccar’s Sainte-Thérèse, Quebec plant were informed Wednesday that the company will move production of trucks destined for the U.S. market back to its American facilities. According to Daniel Cloutier, Quebec director for Unifor, approximately 300 jobs will be eliminated, leaving roughly 500 workers at the plant.
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“They will continue building trucks for the Canadian market,” Cloutier said, noting that domestic demand represents a much smaller portion of output. At its peak, the plant produced 96 trucks per day; production will now drop to just 18 units daily. That is an 81% drop.
Paccar declined to confirm the restructuring or provide additional details. However, in a financial earnings call a day earlier, CEO Preston Feight described the U.S. tariff policy as advantageous for the company. “I think it helps Paccar significantly,” Feight said. “It gives us a competitive leg up from where we’ve been.”
U.S. Tariffs Driving Industry Shift
U.S. President Donald Trump has confirmed that all medium and heavy-duty trucks imported into the United States will face a 25-per-cent tariff beginning Nov. 1, along with an additional 10-per-cent duty on buses. The tariffs are being imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which targets imports deemed to pose a national security risk.
These measures follow earlier tariffs that have already struck Canadian steel, aluminum, automobiles, copper, and lumber, forcing companies to shelve investments and reconsider their North American strategies.
Broader Auto Sector Retrenchment
Other automakers are also pulling back production in Canada. General Motors announced Tuesday it is ending production of the Chevrolet BrightDrop electric delivery van in Ingersoll, Ontario, costing over 1,100 workers their jobs. Stellantis recently confirmed plans to shift production of the Jeep Compass from Brampton, Ontario, to Belvidere, Illinois, as part of a strategy to increase U.S. output by 50 per cent by 2029.
Quebec Plant at Risk
The Sainte-Thérèse plant, which manufactures Class 5, 6 and 7 Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks, has already endured two rounds of layoffs over the past year as uncertainty around tariffs weakened demand. At peak production, the facility employed over 1,400 people.
Cloutier said the union is pressing both the Quebec and federal governments to prioritize the purchase of domestically made vehicles to sustain production levels. Without such measures, he warned, the plant could be forced to close due to high fixed costs and insufficient volume. “Let’s not pretend global trade hasn’t changed with this President,” Cloutier said. “We need to stop twiddling our thumbs.”
Bus Manufacturers Also Exposed
Quebec is also home to two major bus manufacturers, Prevost and Nova Bus, both owned by Volvo Group that could face similar challenges due to new tariffs on buses entering the U.S. Executives at both companies say they are still assessing the impact of the policy shift.
What can we learn from all this?
Perhaps our deep reliance on American innovation has consequences we have been unwilling to confront. The warning signs were evident well before Donald Trump’s election. He was explicit that tariffs would be used as a strategic tool to financially incentivize American companies to return to the United States. This was not hidden, it was a core pillar of his economic agenda.
I have said repeatedly on the Marc Patrone Show on Sauga 960 that my frustration is not with America’s strategy, but with Canada’s political class. Their smug arrogance lies in the belief that, as great as Canada can be, we could somehow dominate the greatest economy in the history of civilization rather than work with it. The Trump administration never wanted Canada to become the 51st state; they want our valuable resources and are willing to pay fair value for them, and they expect Canada to finally take our internal security threats seriously; something I have personally presented on in the United States. Yet instead of leveraging our strategic position, Canada’s leadership chose performative resistance over pragmatic partnership.
The most telling moment came when President Trump reportedly asked Justin Trudeau what would happen if the United States imposed a 25-per-cent tariff on all Canadian goods. Trudeau’s response, “It would destroy Canada” was an example of catastrophic stupidity. It handed Trump the gun he could use to execute Canada economically and perhaps cost Canada its sovereignty over the long term.
Reminiscent of the scene from The Hunt for Red October, when Captain Tupolev, in an act of smug Laurentian style arrogance, fires a torpedo at Ramius only for it to circle back and destroy his own submarine, a catastrophic miscalculation born of arrogance and a complete misunderstanding of the enemy’s capabilities. A catastrophic miscalculation that mirrors Elbows Up stupidity.
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