Alberta government should undo personal income tax hikes

If the Smith government reduced Alberta’s top PIT rate to 8 per cent, it would be the lowest provincial rate in Canada and Alberta would have one of the lowest top combined PIT rates in North America (41.0 per cent). Put simply, the change would go a long way to restoring Alberta’s previous tax advantage. And approximately 2.3 million Albertans would save $1,573 per year (on average)

On the campaign trail, Danielle Smith promised to create a new 8 per cent tax bracket for personal income below $60,000. While the tax cut was delayed in the recently tabled 2024 budget, it remains a good idea—in fact, Premier Smith should go a step further and create a single tax rate of 8 per cent for personal income.

First, some context.

As recently as 2014, Alberta had the lowest top combined (that is, provincial and federal) personal income tax (PIT) rate in North America. Paired with a low business income tax rate and no sales tax, Alberta had a powerful tax advantage that made the province a very attractive place to work and invest.

But in 2015, the NDP government replaced Alberta’s single personal income tax rate of 10 per cent with a five-bracket system including a top marginal rate of 15 per cent.

As a result, as noted in a new study published by the Fraser Institute, Alberta now has the 10th highest combined PIT rate in North America. And crucially, higher than rates in U.S. energy jurisdictions such as Texas, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Colorado, Louisiana, North Dakota and Alaska, which compete with Alberta for talent and investment.

If the Smith government reduced Alberta’s top PIT rate to 8 per cent, it would be the lowest provincial rate in Canada and Alberta would have one of the lowest top combined PIT rates in North America (41.0 per cent). Put simply, the change would go a long way to restoring Alberta’s previous tax advantage. And approximately 2.3 million Albertans would save $1,573 per year (on average), which means more money in the pockets of Albertans.

Moreover, a significant body of research finds that high income tax rates discourage economic growth by reducing after-tax income from work, savings, investment and entrepreneurship. Correspondingly, high income tax rates tend to negatively affect economic growth while lower rates stimulate economic activity. In other words, this tax change could come with big economic benefits to Albertans by attracting investment and high-skilled workers that fuel innovation and job creation.

Finally, this tax change may be more fiscally feasible than one might think. Based on budget data from the Smith government, reducing Alberta’s multi-bracket PIT system to a single rate of 8 per cent would’ve led to an estimated revenue loss of $3.8 billion in 2023/24, which is equivalent to just 5.1 per cent of total provincial government revenue that year. And the behavioural affect from lower taxes—increased work, savings and investment—could dramatically reduce the amount of revenue lost.

It’s time the Smith government make good on its campaign promise and finally undo the personal income tax hikes by the previous NDP government. Returning to a single-rate personal income tax system would help restore the province’s lost tax advantage and attract the entrepreneurs, businesses and investment that fuel a strong economy.

Authors:

Tegan Hill

Associate Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute

Nathaniel Li

Senior Economist, Fraser Institute

Related Topics:#AlbertaIncomeTax #CanadianTaxpayersFederation #FlatTax #NathanielLi #TeganHill

Up Next

Growing the government won’t help Canada’s economy

Don't Miss

Thousands of Canadians gather nationwide to protest Trudeau’s carbon tax

Todayville

Todayville is a digital media and technology company. We profile unique stories and events in our community. Register and promote your community event for free.

Follow Author

Canada may escape the worst as Trump declares America’s economic independence with Liberation Day tariffs

2025 Federal Election / 2 hours ago

‘I’m Cautiously Optimistic’: Doug Ford Strongly Recommends Canada ‘Not To Retaliate’ Against Trump’s Tariffs

Business / 2 hours ago

Trump says wave of reciprocal tariffs will go into effect at midnight

Alberta

Big win for Alberta and Canada: Statement from Premier Smith

Published on April 2, 2025

Government of Alberta

Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:

“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.

“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.

“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.

“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.

“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.

“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”

Alberta

Energy sector will fuel Alberta economy and Canada’s exports for many years to come

Published on April 2, 2025

Todayville

From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.

Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.

In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.

Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.

The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.

Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.