Alberta
Oil and gas in the global economy through 2050
From the Canadian Energy Centre
The world will continue to rely on oil and gas for decades to come, according to the International Energy Agency
Recent global conflicts, which have been partly responsible for a global spike in energy prices, have cast their shadow on energy markets around the world. Added to this uncertainty is the ongoing debate among policymakers and public institutions in various jurisdictions about the role of traditional forms of energy in the global economy.
One widely quoted study influencing the debate is the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook, the most recent edition of which, World Energy Outlook 2023 (or WEO 2023), was released recently (IEA 2023).
In this CEC Fact Sheet, we examine projections for oil and natural gas production, demand, and investment drawn from the World Energy Outlook 2023 Extended Dataset, using the IEA’s modelled scenario STEPS, or the Stated Policies Scenario. The Extended Dataset provides more detailed data at the global, regional, and country level than that found in the main report.
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook and the various scenarios
Every year the IEA releases its annual energy outlook. The report looks at recent energy supply and demand, and projects the investment outlook for oil and gas over the next three decades. The World Energy Outlook makes use of a scenario approach to examine future energy trends. WEO 2023 models three scenarios: the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE), the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), and the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS).
STEPS appears to be the most plausible scenario because it is based on the world’s current trajectory, rather than the other scenarios set out in the WEO 2023, including the APS and the NZE. According to the IEA:
The Stated Policies Scenario is based on current policy settings and also considers the implications of industrial policies that support clean energy supply chains as well as measures related to energy and climate. (2023, p. 79; emphasis by author)
and
STEPS looks in detail at what [governments] are actually doing to reach their targets and objectives across the energy economy. Outcomes in the STEPS reflect a detailed sector-by-sector review of the policies and measures that are actually in place or that have been announced; aspirational energy or climate targets are not automatically assumed to be met. (2023, p. 92)
Key results
The key results of STEPS, drawn from the IEA’s Extended Dataset, indicate that the oil and gas industry is not going into decline over the next decade—neither worldwide generally, nor in Canada specifically. In fact, the demand for oil and gas in emerging and developing economies under STEPS will remain robust through 2050.
Oil and natural gas production projections under STEPS
World oil production is projected to increase from 94.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2022 to 97.2 mb/d in 2035, before falling slightly to 94.5 mb/d in 2050 (see Figure 1).
Source: IEA (2023b)
Canadian overall crude oil production is projected to increase from 5.8 mb/d in 2022 to 6.5 mb/d in 2035, before falling to 5.6 mb/d in 2050 (see Figure 2).
Source: IEA (2023b)
Canadian oil sands production is expected to increase from 3.6 mb/d in 2022 to 3.8 mb/d in 2035, and maintain the same production level till 2050 (see Figure 3).
Source: IEA (2023b)
World natural gas production is anticipated to increase from 4,138 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2022 to 4,173 bcm in 2050 (see Figure 4).
Source: IEA (2023b)
Canadian natural gas production is projected to decrease from 204 bcm in 2022 to 194 bcm in 2050 (see Figure 5).
Source: IEA (2023b)
Oil demand under STEPS
World demand for oil is projected to increase from 96.5 mb/d in 2022 to 97.4 mb/d by 2050 (see Tables 1A and 1B). Demand in Africa for oil is expected to increase from 4.0 mb/d in 2022 to 7.7 mb/d in 2050. Demand for oil in the Asia-Pacific is projected to increase from 32.9 mb/d in 2022 to 35.1 mb/d in 2050. Demand for oil from emerging and developing economies is anticipated to increase from 47.9 mb/d in 2022 to 59.3 mb/d in 2050.
Source: IEA (2023b)
Source: IEA (2023b)
Natural gas demand under STEPS
World demand for natural gas is expected to increase from 4,159 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2022 to 4,179 bcm in 2050 (see Figures 6 and 7). Demand in Africa for natural gas is projected to increase from 170 bcm in 2020 to 277 bcm in 2050. Demand in the Asia-Pacific for natural gas is anticipated to increase from 900 bcm in 2020 to 1,119 bcm in 2050.
Source: IEA (2023b)
Source: IEA (2023b)
Cumulative oil and gas investment expected to be over $21 trillion
Taking into account projected global demand, between 2023 and 2050 the cumulative global oil and gas investment (upstream, midstream, and downstream) under STEPS is expected to reach nearly U.S.$21.1 trillion (in $2022). Global oil investment alone is expected to be over U.S.$13.1 trillion and natural gas investment is predicted to be over $8.0 trillion (see Figure 8).
Between 2023 and 2050, total oil and gas investment in North America (Canada, the U.S., and Mexico) is expected to be nearly U.S.$5.6 trillion, split between oil at over $3.8 trillion and gas at nearly $1.8 trillion (see Figure 8). Oil and gas investment in the Asia Pacific, over the same period, is estimated at nearly $3.3 trillion, split between oil at over $1.4 trillion and gas at over $1.9 trillion.
Source: IEA (2023b)
Conclusion
The sector-by-sector measures that governments worldwide have put in place and the specific policy initiatives that support clean energy policy, i.e., the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), both show oil and gas continuing to play a major role in the global economy through 2050. Key data points on production and demand drawn from the IEA’s WEO 2023 Extended Dataset confirm this trend.
Positioning Canada as a secure and reliable oil and gas supplier can and must be part of the medium- to long-term solution to meeting the oil and gas demands of the U.S., Europe, Asia and other regions as part of a concerted move supporting energy security.
The need for stable energy, which is something that oil and natural gas provide, is critical to a global economy whose population is set to grow by another 2 billion people by 2050. Along with the increasing population comes rising incomes, and with them comes a heightened demand for oil and natural gas, particularly in many emerging and developing economies in Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and Latin America, where countries are seeing urbanization and industrialization grow rapidly.
References (as of February 11, 2024)
International Energy Agency (IEA), 2023(a), World Energy Outlook 2023 <http://tinyurl.com/4nv9xyfj>; International Energy Agency (IEA), 2023(b), World Energy Outlook 2023 Extended Dataset <http://tinyurl.com/3222553b>.
From the Montreal Economic Institute
Alberta’s move to fund acute care services through activity-based funding follows best practices internationally, points out an MEI researcher following an announcement made by Premier Danielle Smith earlier today.
“For too long, the way hospitals were funded in Alberta incentivized treating fewer patients, contributing to our long wait times,” explains Krystle Wittevrongel, director of research at the MEI. “International experience has shown that, with the proper funding models in place, health systems become more efficient to the benefit of patients.”
Currently, Alberta’s hospitals are financed under a system called “global budgeting.” This involves allocating a pre-set amount of funding to pay for a specific number of services based on previous years’ budgets.
Under the government’s newly proposed funding system, hospitals receive a fixed payment for each treatment delivered.
An Economic Note published by the MEI last year showed that Quebec’s gradual adoption of activity-based funding led to higher productivity and lower costs in the province’s health system.
Notably, the province observed that the per-procedure cost of MRIs fell by four per cent as the number of procedures performed increased by 22 per cent.
In the radiology and oncology sector, it observed productivity increases of 26 per cent while procedure costs decreased by seven per cent.
“Being able to perform more surgeries, at lower costs, and within shorter timelines is exactly what Alberta’s patients need, and Premier Smith understands that,” continued Mrs. Wittevrongel. “Today’s announcement is a good first step, and we look forward to seeing a successful roll-out once appropriate funding levels per procedure are set.”
The governments expects to roll-out this new funding model for select procedures starting in 2026.
* * *
The MEI is an independent public policy think tank with offices in Montreal, Ottawa, and Calgary. Through its publications, media appearances, and advisory services to policymakers, the MEI stimulates public policy debate and reforms based on sound economics and entrepreneurship.
Alberta
Medical regulator stops short of revoking license of Alberta doctor skeptic of COVID vaccine
From LifeSiteNews
The Democracy Fund has announced that COVID-skeptic Dr. Roger Hodkinson will retain his medical license after a successful appeal against allegations of ‘unprofessional conduct’ by the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Alberta.
A doctor who called for officials to be jailed for being complicit in the “big kill” caused by COVID measures will get to keep his medical license thanks to a ruling by a Canadian medical regulator.
The Democracy Fund (TDF) announced in an April 4 press release that one of its clients, Dr. Roger Hodkinson, will retain his medical license after filing an appeal with the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Alberta (CPSA) over allegations of “unprofessional conduct regarding 17 public statements made in November 2020 and April 2021.”
Hodkinson had routinely argued against the dictates of public health and elected officials and “presented an alternative perspective on COVID-19, including the efficacy of masking and vaccines,” TDF noted.
In 2021, Hodkinson and Dr. Dennis Modry publicly blasted the then-provincial government of Alberta under Premier Jason Kenney for “intimidating” people “into compliance” with COVID-19 lockdowns.
In 2022, Hodkinson said that leaders in Canada and throughout the world have perpetrated the “biggest kill ever in medicine’s history” by coercing people into taking the experimental COVID injections and subjecting them to lengthy lockdowns.
These statements, among others, led the CPSA to claim that Hodkinson had promoted inaccurate or misleading information. “However, following negotiations with lawyers for The Democracy Fund, the CPSA limited its claims to arguing that Dr. Hodkinson’s comments violated the ethical code and extended beyond the scope of a general pathologist.”
Thus, Hodkinson did not “concede that any of his statements were false,” but “acknowledged that his criticisms of other physicians technically breached the Code of Ethics and Professionalism,” the group explained. “He also admitted that he should have clarified that his views were outside the scope of a general pathologist.”
Instead of having his license revoked, TDF stated that Dr. Hodkinson received a “caution” and will have to “complete an online course on influence and advocacy.”
“However, he did not concede that any of his statements were misinformation, nor did the tribunal make such a determination,” noted lawyer Alan Honner.
While Hodkinson received a slap on the wrist, a number of Canadian doctors have faced much harsher sanctions for warning about the experimental vaccines or other COVID protocols such as lockdowns, including the revocation of their medical licenses, as was the case with Dr. Mark Trozzi and others.
Some of Hodkinson’s warnings seem to have been vindicated by the current Alberta government under Premier Danielle Smith, who commissioned Dr. Gary Davidson to investigate the previous administration’s handling of COVID-19.
Davidson’s report, which was made public earlier this year, recommended the immediately halt of the experimental jabs for healthy children and teenagers, citing the risks the shots pose.
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