Opinion
Feds facing the consequences of the costly carbon tax
From the Canadian Taxpayers Federation
Author: Gage Haubrich
Ottawa unveiled an unorthodox carbon tax communications strategy in Saskatchewan: threats.
Saskatchewan minister responsible for SaskEnergy, Dustin Duncan, recently announced that the Saskatchewan government will not be sending the federal government money to cover its refusal to charge Saskatchewanians the carbon tax on home heating.
In October, Saskatchewan announced that it would stop collecting the federal carbon tax on home heating in the province. The provincial government estimates this will save the average family who uses natural gas to heat their home $400 this year. That’s enough to pay for a couple trips to the grocery store, and with the current prices at the store, families need all the relief they can get.
In response, federal Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Jonathan Wilkinson shot back at Saskatchewan, announcing that because of this decision, Saskatchewanians will no longer be receiving the federal government’s carbon tax rebate.
Premier Scott Moe then pointed out the absurdity of the feds by highlighting that Saskatchewanians are still paying the carbon tax on gas, diesel and propane.
This whole mess started because Prime Minister Justin Trudeau backpedalled on his carbon tax and decided take it off heating oil. It’s a fuel primarily used in Atlantic Canada and used by almost zero Saskatchewanians.
Despite the exemption in Atlantic Canada being very similar to Premier Scott Moe’s plan in Saskatchewan, Atlantic Canadians are still on track to receive carbon tax rebates. And Quebec, which pays a lower carbon tax than the rest of the country, hasn’t faced the wrath of the federal government either.
Ottawa instead decided to pick a fight with Saskatchewan. It’s fight that won’t win them any favours in the province. At this point, it’s a good bet the Winnipeg Blue Bombers are more popular in Saskatchewan than the Liberals.
But not do outdo even himself, Wilkinson also added, “The rebate actually provides more money for most families in Saskatchewan.”
If only that were true.
Currently, the carbon tax costs 14 cents per litre of gasoline and will cost the average Saskatchewan family $410 this year, according to the Parliamentary Budget Officer.
Oh, and that’s including the rebates that Wilkinson is currently threatening to withhold.
Along with the carbon tax, Ottawa also charges a 10 cents per litre federal tax gas tax and then GST on top of the whole price of the gas, including the carbon tax. That means you are paying about two cents per litre in tax-on-tax in GST every time you fill up your vehicle.
And it’s going to get worse because the federal government plans to keep hiking up the carbon tax.
Come April 1, the carbon tax cost jumps to 17 cents per litre. By 2030, it will be 37 cents per litre and cost the average Saskatchewan household $1,723 per year.
And since almost everything we buy is delivered by a truck and then stored inside a store, the costs to transport and sell those items also goes up with the carbon tax.
After the announcement of the carbon tax heating oil exemption, five premiers, including Moe, wrote to Trudeau demanding that he take the carbon tax off all forms of home heating. It’s good to see premiers across the country take a stand, but Moe is the only one taking real action.
Instead of resorting to threats, maybe Ottawa should take the hint and scrap the carbon tax.
International
The capital of capitalism elects a socialist mayor
New York City — the beating heart of American capitalism — has handed the keys to a socialist. Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old Democratic Socialist assemblyman from Queens, captured City Hall on Tuesday night, defeating former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa in a bitterly fought three-way contest that upended the city’s political order. The Associated Press called the race less than an hour after polls closed, projecting Mamdani at 50.4% to Cuomo’s 41.3%, with Sliwa finishing a distant third at 7.5%. Mamdani, born in Uganda and raised on Manhattan’s Upper West Side, will become the city’s first Muslim and first openly socialist mayor.
Mamdani’s win marks a generational and ideological break from the city’s past, one that rattled Wall Street, alarmed business leaders, and divided Democrats. A proud member of the Democratic Socialists of America, Mamdani ran as a firebrand reformer promising to “tax the rich” and dismantle the influence of corporate money in city politics — proposals that critics said would cripple New York’s fragile economy. His campaign drew widespread scrutiny for his prior calls to “defund the police” and his harsh criticism of Israel, which led to accusations of antisemitism.
Cuomo’s attempt at a political resurrection fell flat. Despite spending more than $12 million on his independent campaign and receiving support from super PACs pouring in roughly $55 million, the former governor could not overcome the wave of progressive enthusiasm that propelled Mamdani from longshot to frontrunner. In a last-ditch effort to stave off defeat, Cuomo earned late backing from President Trump, outgoing Mayor Eric Adams and a handful of moderate Republicans, including Rep. Mike Lawler, who labeled him “the lesser of two evils.” Even that wasn’t enough.
The election itself was the city’s first serious three-way showdown in decades. Mamdani, Cuomo, and Sliwa clashed repeatedly over crime, affordability, and the future of policing. Cuomo leaned on his executive record and cast himself as a pragmatic problem solver, while Mamdani framed the race as a moral reckoning for a city that, in his words, “forgot who it’s supposed to serve.” His online following, slick digital outreach, and constant street presence helped galvanize younger voters, particularly in Brooklyn and Queens, where turnout surged. Meanwhile, Sliwa — the perennial GOP candidate — failed to broaden his appeal beyond his Guardian Angels base.
As he prepares to take office on January 1, 2026, Mamdani faces steep headwinds. His tax-and-spend agenda will require approval from state lawmakers and Governor Kathy Hochul, who has already rejected the idea of raising taxes. Still, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie and Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins have signaled they’ll work with him to advance portions of his sweeping platform. The victory, however, sends a message beyond policy: the city that built capitalism has now chosen a mayor who wants to dismantle it. Whether Zohran Mamdani’s socialist experiment reinvents or wrecks New York will soon be tested in the only arena that matters — reality.
Business
Capital Flight Signals No Confidence In Carney’s Agenda
From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy
By Jay Goldberg
Between bad trade calls and looming deficits, Canada is driving money out just when it needs it most
Canadians voted for relative continuity in April, but investors voted with their wallets, moving $124 billion out of the country.
According to the National Bank, Canadian investors purchased approximately $124 billion in American securities between February and July of this year. At the same time, foreign investment in Canada dropped sharply, leaving the country with a serious hole in its capital base.
As Warren Lovely of National Bank put it, “with non-resident investors aloof and Canadians adding foreign assets, the country has suffered a major capital drain”—one he called “unprecedented.”
Why is this happening?
One reason is trade. Canada adopted one of the most aggressive responses to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda. Former prime minister Justin Trudeau imposed retaliatory tariffs on the United States and escalated tensions further by targeting goods covered under the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), something even the Trump administration avoided.
The result was punishing. Washington slapped a 35 per cent tariff on non-CUSMA Canadian goods, far higher than the 25 per cent rate applied to Mexico. That made Canadian exports less competitive and unattractive to U.S. consumers. The effects rippled through industries like autos, agriculture and steel, sectors that rely heavily on access to U.S. markets. Canadian producers suddenly found themselves priced out, and investors took note.
Recognizing the damage, Prime Minister Mark Carney rolled back all retaliatory tariffs on CUSMA-covered goods this summer in hopes of cooling tensions. Yet the 35 per cent tariff on non-CUSMA Canadian exports remains, among the highest the U.S. applies to any trading partner.
Investors saw the writing on the wall. They understood Trudeau’s strategy had soured relations with Trump and that, given Canada’s reliance on U.S. trade, the United States would inevitably come out on top. Parking capital in U.S. securities looked far safer than betting on Canada’s economy under a government playing a weak hand.
The trade story alone explains much of the exodus, but fiscal policy is another concern. Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer Jason Jacques recently called Ottawa’s approach “stupefying” and warned that Canada risks a 1990s-style fiscal crisis if spending isn’t brought under control. During the 1990s, ballooning deficits forced deep program cuts and painful tax hikes. Interest rates soared, Canada’s debt was downgraded and Ottawa nearly lost control of its finances. Investors are seeing warning signs that history could repeat itself.
After months of delay, Canadians finally saw a federal budget on Nov. 4. Jacques had already projected a deficit of $68.5 billion when he warned the outlook was “unsustainable.” National Bank now suggests the shortfall could exceed $100 billion. And that doesn’t include Carney’s campaign promises, such as higher defence spending, which could add tens of billions more.
Deficits of that scale matter. They can drive up borrowing costs, leave less room for social spending and undermine confidence in the country’s long-term fiscal stability. For investors managing pensions, RRSPs or business portfolios, Canada’s balance sheet now looks shaky compared to a U.S. economy offering both scale and relative stability.
Add in high taxes, heavy regulation and interprovincial trade barriers, and the picture grows bleaker. Despite decades of promises, barriers between provinces still make it difficult for Canadian businesses to trade freely within their own country. From differing trucking regulations to restrictions on alcohol distribution, these long-standing inefficiencies eat away at productivity. When combined with federal tax and regulatory burdens, the environment for growth becomes even more hostile.
The Carney government needs to take this unprecedented capital drain seriously. Investors are not acting on a whim. They are responding to structural problems—ill-advised trade actions, runaway federal spending and persistent barriers to growth—that Ottawa has yet to fix.
In the short term, that means striking a deal with Washington to lower tariffs and restore confidence that Canada can maintain stable access to U.S. markets. It also means resisting the urge to spend Canada into deeper deficits when warning lights are already flashing red. Over the long term, Ottawa must finally tackle high taxes, cut red tape and eliminate the bureaucratic obstacles that stand in the way of economic growth.
Capital has choices. Right now, it is voting with its feet, and with its dollars, and heading south. If Canada wants that capital to come home, the government will have to earn it back.
Jay Goldberg is a fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.
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