National
Asylum seekers spreading from largest cities into the rest of Canada
Federal failures broke Canada’s asylum system
From the MacDonald Laurier Institute
By Michael Barutciski
Our quiet asylum crisis is largely a self-inflicted wound.
Introducing the problem
Recently released statistics indicate over 144,000 migrants claimed asylum in Canada during 2023. This is the highest year on record and is several times higher than any year before the Liberals formed government in 2015. Until a decade ago, Canada was receiving on average less than 25,000 asylum claims per year.
In the days following the publication of the latest numbers Canada’s English-speaking media barely covered this story, despite extensive reporting from Quebec media. Perhaps this is not surprising given that almost half the asylum claims were made in Quebec, prompting premier François Legault to send a formal letter to prime minister Justin Trudeau requesting financial help and measures to stem the flow. However, a comparable number of claims were made in Ontario, which explains why Toronto’s municipal authorities have also been asking for federal money to help with the overwhelmed local services.
Why have there been so many asylum claims in 2023 despite the closing of Roxham Road almost a year ago? After several years of use by asylum seekers, the infamous rural crossing between Quebec and upstate New York was closed. Activists and academics warned that illegal entries along the U.S. land border would increase but this did not happen. Entering illegally was simply not necessary because Ottawa also loosened legal requirements for entry to Canada; the easiest way to eliminate so-called “irregular” migration is to “regularize” it.
The explosion in asylum claims post-Roxham is the result of two simultaneous policy decisions: (1) loosening the criteria for visa issuance and (2) allowing visa-free travel for potential asylum seekers. In other words, our quiet asylum crisis is largely a self-inflicted problem.
The only logical explanation for these striking policy decisions is wide-spread ideological conviction that Canada must be as open as possible. But this conviction is now posing a long-term threat to the asylum system. The country has suffered from a lack of debate and viewpoint diversity that allowed this simplistic ethic to flourish unopposed throughout our political and media establishment.
The good news is that Canadians are finally having a genuine debate about immigration policy. It is encouraging that this debate is also happening within an atmosphere that remains decidedly pro-immigration. No serious analyst is blaming the actual migrants; the blame is instead directed at administrative policies that have allowed the proliferation of incoherence and even abuse in our system.
However, within this new debate on immigration policy, we need to keep in mind that asylum is a distinct issue that carries its own important legal and moral obligations. Our liberal democratic principles are subverted if we do not treat those who seek asylum humanely and with dignity.
We also need to make sure that the principles undergirding our asylum system are coherent. The justification for who we decide to grant asylum to, as well as who is denied protection and removed from Canada should be plain to the public. Distortion or abuse of these principles can undermine public confidence and support for the generosity that has long characterized Canada’s international image.
The federal government’s laxness in sticking to and articulating a principled policy created the current problem. Canada is once again faced with an asylum predicament, while the country’s fiscal position limits the policy options. Any Canadian concerned with the well-being of individuals seeking asylum should be concerned that Canada may be forced to turn away from our historically humanitarian approach as a corrective to a crisis created by near-sighted and careless policy.
Contextualizing the asylum numbers globally and domestically
Examining comparable western liberal democracies reveals an important context.
The broken asylum system in the U.S. is yet again playing a role in the upcoming presidential election as Americans watch uninvited migrants flow through their southern border with Mexico to claim asylum. In the meantime, president Biden has resumed construction of the border wall he stopped early in his mandate.
As the European country with the most asylum seekers, Germany has received a similar number of asylum seekers per capita compared to Canada. A key distinction is that Germany’s progressive leaders have been acknowledging there is a crisis. The United Kingdom is still trying to enact draconian legislation to stop asylum seekers from crossing the Channel and to establish an offshore processing scheme in faraway countries such as Rwanda. Likewise, Italy has announced it will intercept ‘boat people’ crossing the Mediterranean and transfer them to Albania for processing. Austria and Denmark are exploring a similar approach. More extreme Dutch politicians recently won an election in the Netherlands on migration-related problems and they are now trying to form a government.
Across the world political leaders, ranging from U.S. Democrats to Germany’s coalition Social Democrat and Green partners, are realizing that current approaches to asylum are undermining their democracies and stoking reactionist anti-immigrant rhetoric. By constantly emphasizing their openness to migration and refusing to acknowledge problems, the Trudeau’s Liberals appear as a global outlier even among progressive (typically pro-immigration) governments.
The Canadian problem is not as dramatic as the situation on some parts of the Mexico-U.S. border or the Mediterranean sea routes in Europe. The issue in Canada, however, is still breaking a system which has traditionally relied on strong public confidence in our borders and controlled migration flows.
To understand the latest Canadian asylum statistics, we also need to distinguish asylum numbers from the numbers concerning another category: the refugee resettlement program that selects and resettles vulnerable people from overseas. As Prime Minister Trudeau has said, Canada should be proud that it is a world leader for this distinct category which is part of the annual intake of permanent residents.
The refugee resettlement program is an example of controlled migration. The incoming numbers can be adjusted at any moment because government authorization for entry under this category is ultimately a discretionary act. It also does not raise policy challenges comparable to sudden flows of uninvited asylum seekers. The government can only try to dissuade uncontrolled migration through measures such as strict visa controls and interstate cooperation, along with airline sanctions for undocumented travelers. Canada was known for decades as a model country regarding this type of migration control.
To suggest that Canada’s recent spike in asylum claims is related to a global displacement crisis, as repeated by the federal government and others trying to downplay the situation, is to ignore the distinct demographics of the Canadian inflow. The global statistics mostly reflect displaced people who remain within their countries of origin, along with those fleeing specific conflict situations (e.g. Syria, Afghanistan, Ukraine); by and large these are not the migrants claiming asylum in Canada.
Mexico remains the top source country for asylum claims in Canada, yet the federal government continues to allow Mexicans to enter the country without visas. Second place is currently held by citizens of India, which is also a top source country for accepted temporary residents. The unusual situation has been highlighted by Quebec media that reported on the high number of international students claiming asylum.
According to Radio-Canada, immigration authorities also quietly implemented a new policy to expedite temporary visa processing, including removing the need for proof that applicants will leave Canada at the end of their stay. This has reportedly made it easier for people who would normally have difficulty obtaining tourist visas to enter and then claim asylum upon arrival. This stands in contrasts to a policy held for decades characterized by restrictive visa rules. Unsurprisingly, the international airports in Montreal and Toronto have become magnets for asylum claims.
Another argument used by those downplaying the situation is that Canada is simply taking its fair share when we make global comparisons. While it is true that the vast majority of displaced persons are stuck in poor countries of the global south, this argument is somewhat misleading. Canada is a modern, rich country that offers unparalleled treatment to asylum seekers including generous benefits and almost automatic citizenship to those granted asylum. In many other regions asylum seekers often struggle to receive adequate food and shelter and are given a precarious status from unstable host governments. Suggesting Canada is hosting only a small fraction of these vulnerable migrants is to compare apples with oranges.
Compounding the issues with asylum seekers, the recent boom in government-authorized temporary residents includes migrants who intend to stay permanently; it is reasonable to expect that the inevitable failure of many to secure permanent status will lead to problems of visa overstaying and even abusive asylum claims.
A final piece of context for understanding just how out of control Canada’s asylum numbers have become is the reality of undocumented individuals already living in Canada. Immigration Minister Marc Miller said that Canada now has a significant population of undocumented migrants, possibly over half a million. After decades of resisting American mistakes, we have imported the problem that has contributed to a broken immigration system in the U.S. The immigration minister is presently preparing an amnesty program that would provide a pathway to permanent residence for some of these undocumented migrants. But this presents a moral dilemma; we cannot simply dismiss the unlawful nature of their presence in Canada.
Distinguishing between false and realistic solutions
Many of the so-called solutions typically suggested by activists and academics are unrealistic. The most common proposal is getting the federal government to simply provide more funding at the local level. Premier Legault is seeking financial help for Quebec, just as Mayor Olivia Chow is for Toronto. Her city’s budget chief refers to a “global crisis in mass migration” and an “existential crisis” in her public appeals to pressure the federal government, while a Liberal MP from Toronto complains of what he perceives to be a “shakedown”.
Another common proposal is to implement a burden or responsibility sharing scheme across the federation so that the bulk of the asylum seekers are not hosted in Quebec and Ontario’s biggest cities. Even in the unlikely situation that the Trudeau Liberals were to accept the mandatory nature of these transfers, it would ultimately be little more than a band-aid in that similar tensions and requests for funding would inevitably arise in other provinces. Likewise, many commentators are urging the federal government to deliver work permits more quickly so that fewer asylum seekers have to rely on social assistance from provincial governments but this too skirts around the core of the problem.
The number of asylum seekers is simply too large and resources at all levels are too small. It is not realistic to expect massive new spending from any level of government during a cost-of-living and housing crisis.
However, there are concrete actions that the federal government can and should take.
Given the influx of Mexican asylum seekers, imposing visas on Mexicans is one measure any responsible government should take. More than 22,000 Mexicans claimed asylum in Canada in the first eleven months of 2023. The Harper government imposed visas on Mexicans in 2009 in the same way that all western countries impose visas on source countries when the number of asylum claims rises significantly. The Trudeau Liberals removed these visa requirements in 2016. We are now well beyond the numbers that previously triggered the imposition of visa requirements and the government will be forced to reverse its decision.
There is also an important security factor that has barely been reported in English-speaking Canada: criminal elements associated with this particular inflow of Mexican asylum seekers have attracted Washington’s attention. Given that the U.S. imposes visa requirements on Mexicans, it is not surprising that it has asked Canada to reinstate them to prevent clandestine entry from its northern border.
The other measure the federal government should take to regain public trust is to tighten recently relaxed visitor visa issuance. This major policy shift is likely related to the new client-focused attitude, a focus on shorter wait times so that visa applicants are satisfied, spreading within the immigration department. Although understandable to some extent, an unqualified shift in this direction appears misplaced for any bureaucratic service that participates in the important state function of border control.
It is astonishing that such an important change to visa issuance was made during the last year despite internal warnings that it would lead to a jump in asylum claims. Unfortunately, decision-making at the ministerial level seems to be driven by ideological commitments rather than by the empirical evidence of Canada’s needs and capacity.
Explaining these self-imposed problems
It is difficult to know precisely what motivated this policy shift because little information was made public. The only apparent explanation is the desire for virtue signaling and the appearance of compassionate policy from the PM and his various immigration ministers.
The Trudeau Liberals apparently hold the moral conviction that Canada should take an abstract and ill-defined “fair share” regardless of how this affects the overall integrity of the system. They also believe that their progressive university-educated urban constituencies are onboard with an ideological worldview that encourages open borders.
This is partly related to the longstanding politicization of universities. By overcompensating in their attempts not to appear anti-immigrant, Canada’s political and media class are reinforcing the failure of the country’s universities to promote a diversity of analysis concerning the asylum dilemma. Border control and the legitimacy of borders is routinely questioned in universities and there is generally dogmatic refusal to accept enforcement via removals to maintain the system’s integrity.
It is a clear reflection of bias that Canada’s responsibility-sharing treaty with the US, the Safe Third Country Agreement (STCA), was uniformly denounced in Canada’s publicly funded law journals and academic publications. It took our Supreme Court to clarify, in an unanimous judgment last year, that the US is indeed safe for asylum seekers as stated in the STCA. Publicly funded research should not be so obviously one-sided in addressing complex border issues, especially when credible outside voices (including the Supreme Court) clearly take an opposing view of the law in question.
The concerns raised by the activist academics in this field are not always illegitimate, but the absence of any debate on the larger policy issues creates an echo-chamber in which opposing ideas are rejected out of hand. As a consequence, it is difficult for students to succeed without embracing a social justice agenda.
Progressive media and politicians are promoting an ideology that espouses there is global injustice resulting from a supposed “birthright lottery”. The idea is that people from poor and unstable regions are unable to travel to western countries because they are not lucky enough to have been born somewhere that provides passports which allow visa-free travel. Contrary to western citizens who can easily travel to most countries, these losers in the “birthright lottery” are forced to take risky journeys to claim asylum if they want to escape their difficult conditions. This is the progressive liberal approach to the concept of asylum favoured on Canadian campuses.
There is no doubt that this view is attractive from a perspective which values maximal individual liberty but, while it is understandable to sympathize with reversing a perceived global injustice, it is foolish to manage migration with theoretical and ideological constructs devoid of data or real-world concerns. Progressive theorists would have us believe that the capacity for migrants to integrate into a society is limitless because it depends on political will, but in the real world there are both political and practical constraints.
Former German president Joachim Gauck, a leader who symbolizes moral clarity on humanitarian issues, recently gave this terse warning: “limiting migration is not something to be condemned”. It is this type of straight-shooting practical wisdom that is required to reform our liberal democracies that are overwhelmed by asylum seekers.
Concluding remarks
The humanitarian intentions manifested by the Trudeau Liberals are admirable. But good intentions alone are not enough for an effective and sustainable asylum policy. By pushing a well-intentioned but overly generous approach to asylum, inspired by a post-national ideology, the current government threatens the integrity of Canada’s immigration system. There is too much blind ideological conviction and not enough practical focus on how to protect Canada’s interests, make the most of limited resources, and maintain a compassionate immigration policy in the long-term.
The international asylum system was set up to protect limited numbers of individuals from political persecution. It was not set up to allow masses of people to migrate through back-channels and to be able to stay in host countries by claiming asylum. The goal of any Canadian government must be to avoid importing aspects of the broken U.S. asylum system. This is necessary to maintain a compassionate fair-minded and distinctly Canadian approach.
Realistic policymakers should make sure protection is limited to migrants fleeing individualized persecution (as intended by drafters of the 1951 Refugee Convention). This implies a willingness to enforce the rules to preserve the system’s credibility.
Prime Minister Trudeau has increasingly appeared as a moralist who seems more comfortable preaching his detached values and worldview than governing based on the realities of a situation at hand. Even for those who share many of Trudeau’s views on the importance of migration and diversity to Canadian identity and culture, his underlying attitude can appear patronizing to the extent that diverging opinions are unfairly painted as xenophobic or racist. As a political leader who contributes to setting the tone, this harms the level of debate in a country that depends on sophisticated and nuanced analysis of migration.
The Liberals came to power partly because of the humanitarian spirit they displayed during the Syrian refugee crisis. But now asylum issues may contribute to their downfall as Canadians become increasingly aware of how detached from reality their policies have become.
About the author
Michael Barutciski is a faculty member of York University’s Glendon College. He worked throughout the 1990s as fellow in law at Oxford University’s Refugee Studies Centre, as well as York’s Centre for Refugee Studies. He was later editor-in-chief of Refuge (Canada’s refugee studies journal).
Alberta
Ford and Trudeau are playing checkers. Trump and Smith are playing chess
By Dan McTeague
Ford’s calls for national unity – “We need to stand united as Canadians!” – in context feels like an endorsement of fellow Electric Vehicle fanatic Trudeau. And you do wonder if that issue has something to do with it. After all, the two have worked together to pump billions in taxpayer dollars into the EV industry.
There’s no doubt about it: Donald Trump’s threat of a blanket 25% tariff on Canadian goods (to be established if the Canadian government fails to take sufficient action to combat drug trafficking and illegal crossings over our southern border) would be catastrophic for our nation’s economy. More than $3 billion in goods move between the U.S. and Canada on a daily basis. If enacted, the Trump tariff would likely result in a full-blown recession.
It falls upon Canada’s leaders to prevent that from happening. That’s why Justin Trudeau flew to Florida two weeks ago to point out to the president-elect that the trade relationship between our countries is mutually beneficial.
This is true, but Trudeau isn’t the best person to make that case to Trump, since he has been trashing the once and future president, and his supporters, both in public and private, for years. He did so again at an appearance just the other day, in which he implied that American voters were sexist for once again failing to elect the nation’s first female president, and said that Trump’s election amounted to an assault on women’s rights.
Consequently, the meeting with Trump didn’t go well.
But Trudeau isn’t Canada’s only politician, and in recent days we’ve seen some contrasting approaches to this serious matter from our provincial leaders.
First up was Doug Ford, who followed up a phone call with Trudeau earlier this week by saying that Canadians have to prepare for a trade war. “Folks, this is coming, it’s not ‘if,’ it is — it’s coming… and we need to be prepared.”
Ford said that he’s working with Liberal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland to put together a retaliatory tariff list. Spokesmen for his government floated the idea of banning the LCBO from buying American alcohol, and restricting the export of critical minerals needed for electric vehicle batteries (I’m sure Trump is terrified about that last one).
But Ford’s most dramatic threat was his announcement that Ontario is prepared to shut down energy exports to the U.S., specifically to Michigan, New York, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, if Trump follows through with his plan. “We’re sending a message to the U.S. You come and attack Ontario, you attack the livelihoods of Ontario and Canadians, we’re going to use every tool in our toolbox to defend Ontarians and Canadians across the border,” Ford said.
Now, unfortunately, all of this chest-thumping rings hollow. Ontario does almost $500 billion per year in trade with the U.S., and the province’s supply chains are highly integrated with America’s. The idea of just cutting off the power, as if you could just flip a switch, is actually impossible. It’s a bluff, and Trump has already called him on it. When told about Ford’s threat by a reporter this week, Trump replied “That’s okay if he does that. That’s fine.”
And Ford’s calls for national unity – “We need to stand united as Canadians!” – in context feels like an endorsement of fellow Electric Vehicle fanatic Trudeau. And you do wonder if that issue has something to do with it. After all, the two have worked together to pump billions in taxpayer dollars into the EV industry. Just over the past year Ford and Trudeau have been seen side by side announcing their $5 billion commitment to Honda, or their $28.2 billion in subsidies for new Stellantis and Volkswagen electric vehicle battery plants.
Their assumption was that the U.S. would be a major market for Canadian EVs. Remember that “vehicles are the second largest Canadian export by value, at $51 billion in 2023 of which 93% was exported to the U.S.,”according to the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers Association, and “Auto is Ontario’s top export at 28.9% of all exports (2023).”
But Trump ran on abolishing the Biden administration’s de facto EV mandate. Now that he’s back in the White House, the market for those EVs that Trudeau and Ford invested in so heavily is going to be much softer. Perhaps they’d like to be able to blame Trump’s tariffs for the coming downturn rather than their own misjudgment.
In any event, Ford’s tactic stands in stark contrast to the response from Alberta, Canada’s true energy superpower. Premier Danielle Smith made it clear that her province “will not support cutting off our Alberta energy exports to the U.S., nor will we support a tariff war with our largest trading partner and closest ally.”
Smith spoke about this topic at length at an event announcing a new $29-million border patrol team charged with combatting drug trafficking, at which said that Trudeau’s criticisms of the president-elect were, “not helpful.” Her deputy premier Mike Ellis was quoted as saying, “The concerns that president-elect Trump has expressed regarding fentanyl are, quite frankly, the same concerns that I and the premier have had.” Smith and Ellis also criticized Ottawa’s progressively lenient approach to drug crimes.
(For what it’s worth, a recent Léger poll found that “Just 29 per cent of [Canadians] believe Trump’s concerns about illegal immigration and drug trafficking from Canada to the U.S. are unwarranted.” Perhaps that’s why some recent polls have found that Trudeau is currently less popular in Canada than Trump at the moment.)
Smith said that Trudeau’s criticisms of the president-elect were, “not helpful.” And on X/Twitter she said, “Now is the time to… reach out to our friends and allies in the U.S. to remind them just how much Americans and Canadians mutually benefit from our trade relationship – and what we can do to grow that partnership further,” adding, “Tariffs just hurt Americans and Canadians on both sides of the border. Let’s make sure they don’t happen.”
This is exactly the right approach. Smith knows there is a lot at stake in this fight, and is not willing to step into the ring in a fight that Canada simply can’t win, and will cause a great deal of hardship for all involved along the way.
While Trudeau indulges in virtue signaling and Ford in sabre rattling, Danielle Smith is engaging in true statesmanship. That’s something that is in short supply in our country these days.
As I’ve written before, Trump is playing chess while Justin Trudeau and Doug Ford are playing checkers. They should take note of Smith’s strategy. Honey will attract more than vinegar, and if the long history of our two countries tell us anything, it’s that diplomacy is more effective than idle threats.
Dan McTeague is President of Canadians for Affordable Energy.
armed forces
Canada among NATO members that could face penalties for lack of military spending
From the Daily Caller News Foundation
By J.D. Foster
Trump should insist on these measures and order that unless they are carried out the United States will not participate in NATO. If Canada is allowed entry to the Brussels headquarters, then United States representatives would stay out.
Steps Trump Could Take To Get NATO Free Riders Off America’s Back
In thinking about NATO, one has to ask: “How stupid do they think we are?”
The “they,” of course, are many of the other NATO members, and the answer is they think we are as stupid as we have been for the last quarter century. As President-elect Donald Trump observed in his NBC interview, NATO “takes advantage of the U.S.”
Canada is among the “they.” In November, The Economist reported that Canada spends about 1.3% of GDP on defense. The ridiculously low NATO minimum is 2%. Not to worry, though, Premier Justin Trudeau promises Canada will hit 2% — by 2032.
A quarter of NATO’s 32 members fall short of the 2% minimum. The con goes like this: We are short now, but we will get there eventually. Trust us, wink, wink.
The United States has put up with this nonsense from some members since the collapse of the Soviet Union. That is how stupid we have been.
Trump once threatened to pull the United States out of NATO, then he suggested the United States might not come to the defense of a NATO member like Canada. Naturally, free-riding NATO members grumbled.
In another context, former Army Lt. Gen. Russell Honore famously outlined the first step in how the United States should approach NATO: Don’t get stuck on stupid.
NATO is a coalition of mutual defense. Members who contribute little to the mutual defense are useless. Any country not spending its 2% of GDP on defense by mid-year 2025 should see its membership suspended immediately.
What does suspended mean? Consequences. Its military should not be permitted to participate in any NATO planning or exercises. And its offices at NATO headquarters and all other NATO facilities should be shuttered and its citizens banned until such time as their membership returns to good standing. And, of course, the famous Article V assuring mutual defense would be suspended.
Further, Trump should insist on these measures and order that unless they are carried out the United States will not participate in NATO. If Canada is allowed entry to the Brussels headquarters, then United States representatives would stay out.
Nor should he stop there. The 2% threshold would be fine in a world at peace with no enemies lurking. That does not describe the world today. Trump should declare the threshold for avoiding membership suspension will be 2.5% in 2026 and 3% by 2028 – not 2030 as some suggest.
The purpose is not to destroy NATO, but to force NATO to be relevant. America needs strong defense partners who pull their weight, not defense welfare queens. If NATO’s members cannot abide by these terms, then it is time to move on and let NATO go the way of the League of Nations.
Trump may need to take the lead in creating a new coalition of those willing to defend Western values. As he did in rewriting the former U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, it may be time to replace a defective arrangement with a much better one.
This still leaves the problem of free riders. Take Belgium, for example, another security free rider. Suppose a new defense coalition arises including the United States and Poland and others bordering Russia. Hiding behind the coalition’s protection, Belgium could just quit all defense spending to focus on making chocolates.
This won’t do. The members of the new defense coalition must also agree to impose a tariff regime on the security free riders to help pay for the defense provided.
The best solution is for NATO to rise to our mutual security challenges. If NATO can’t do this, then other arrangements will be needed. But it is time to move on from stupid.
J.D. Foster is the former chief economist at the Office of Management and Budget and former chief economist and senior vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He now resides in relative freedom in the hills of Idaho.
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