Alberta
Alberta won the energy lottery
From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy
Some people blamed a small handful of natural gas plants being out of operation. Which is a greater concern – two of 87 gas fired units being down, or 88 of 88 wind and solar farms being down at the same time?
Alberta won the energy lottery millions of years ago. I’m not talking scratchers, but the Powerball. You know, the big American lottery that every so often is over a billion dollars?
Except Alberta’s winnings are much, much larger than that.
So why is it the weekend of Jan. 12-15, the jurisdiction that has more oil, gas and coal than God, because God gave all his to Alberta, was forced to beg its neighbours if they could spare a megawatt?
Because that’s what happened. It got so desperate the night of Saturday, Jan. 13, that the neighbours did not have another megawatt to spare. The Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) and the government of Alberta sent out an emergency alert to every cellphone and TV screen in the province, calling on people to shut off everything from stoves to bathroom fans, as well as unplug block heaters and electric vehicles.
The only way this could happen is complete and utter incompetence at the top. It started with Rachel Notley, but Jason Kenney didn’t seem to do much to reverse her moves. Only Danielle Smith seems to have finally said, “No more!”
Former Alberta premier Rachel Notley’s push to get rid of coal as soon as possible and build as much wind and solar is a prime example of incompetence. While most coal plants converted to natural gas, not all units did, and hundreds of megawatts of cheap, reliable power were lost. Meanwhile, in the last two years Alberta’s wind and solar basically doubled, projects that mostly got their start under Notley. And yet there were moments during the weekend where both wind and solar hit zero output, sometimes at same time. Wind and solar’s theoretical capacity of 6,131 megawatts was a big fat zero.
And yet when Notley announced her departure as leader of the NDP on Jan. 16, she put out a video proclaiming the elimination of coal-fired power and kickstarting renewables among her greatest accomplishments.
Some people blamed a small handful of natural gas plants being out of operation. Which is a greater concern – two of 87 gas fired units being down, or 88 of 88 wind and solar farms being down at the same time, as happened the morning of Jan. 14? Indeed, the vast majority of the 87 gas units and 2 coal units were indeed providing nearly all of Alberta’s power throughout the weekend.
Those four days saw the AESO issue four “grid alerts” in a row. The second one was a much closer-run thing. As a last resort, they put all the grid-scale batteries into play, and those batteries were running out of juice after just an hour. The contingency reserve went to effectively zero.
If the province had not issued its emergency alert, the AESO since reported they were within a half hour of calling for rotating blackouts.
Thankfully, it did work. But what about next time?
The next step was rotating blackouts, and, if that didn’t work, major load shedding. And if that wasn’t enough, a replay of Texas, February, 2021, when 246 died. Except there would be more bodies, because it’s a hell of a lot colder here.
Lessons
There are some lessons from that weekend, and especially Saturday:
- Wind and solar totally and utterly fail when we need power the most.
- Do NOT expect your neighbour to be able to help you out. Often they can, and do. But as we saw Jan. 13, when your boat is sinking, your neighbour’s may be sinking faster. This was evident by the small amount of power BC sent Alberta. They routinely send 3x that. Montana was sending effectively nothing. And even though Saskatchewan was maxed out in sending what we had, it was not enough to bail out Alberta. Interties are good in many ways, but they must not be entirely relied upon.
- As a result, each jurisdiction must ensure it has ample supply within its own borders and control. And that includes enough dispatchable power to backfill every single megawatt of wind and solar, plus the possible loss of one of its baseload units. That 4 per cent contingency reserve is really not enough.
- If Alberta did go into rotating blackouts:
- What would have happened if that half hour turned out into half a day, or longer, with the temperature at -35 C as it was in Calgary? How many lives might be on the line? What would the property loss be, from things like frozen pipes?
- Whose head would the public be calling for on Monday morning? Oh wait, there was a fourth grid alert that morning.
- Alberta has more than five million vehicles registered. What would have happened if five million EVs were all plugged in that weekend?
- We cannot, we must not, allow this to happen here in Saskatchewan, or again in Alberta. But yet SaskPower keeps saying we’re going to build an additional 3,000 megawatts of wind and solar. We are on Alberta’s path. Alberta already has 6,131 megawatts of wind and solar. How’s that working out for them? Friday night – 6 megawatts. Saturday night – 90. Sunday morning, zero.
Fossil fuels account for up to 94 per cent of Alberta’s and 89 per cent of Saskatchewan’s power on any given day. We cannot, must not, allow ourselves to think any amount of wind and solar can keep us alive when the temperatures hit -35 C. That weekend in Alberta proved it.
Brian Zinchuk is editor an owner of Pipeline Online and occasional contributor to the Frontier Centre for Public Policy. He can be reached at [email protected].
Protesters demonstrating against COVID-19 mandates and restrictions gather as a truck convoy blocks the highway at the Canada-U.S. border crossing in Coutts, Alta., on Feb. 2, 2022. The Canadian Press/Jeff McIntosh
From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy
By Ray McGinnis
Imagine spending over two years behind bars, only to be told the evidence never supported the charges against you.
On Aug. 2, a Lethbridge jury found Chris Carbert and Tony Olienick not guilty of the most serious charge of conspiracy to commit murder of police officers. However, though they were declared innocent, the conspiracy charge was the basis for their being held in remand for at least 925 days. They were denied bail based on this charge.
The sentencing hearing for other charges against Carbert and Olienick is taking place this week.
Granting Bail Typical for Serious Offences
In Canada, when someone is charged with committing a crime, they’re released on bail. This includes those charged with murder. For example, in September 2021, 31-year-old Umar Zameer was released on bail after being charged with the first-degree murder of Toronto Police Constable Jeffrey Northrup.
A case of double murder in the city of Mission in B.C.’s Fraser Valley concerned the deaths of Lisa Dudley and her boyfriend Guthrie McKay. Tom Holden, accused of first-degree murder in the case, was released on bail.
Conditions for not Granting Bail
Why do we release people from custody after being charged with a crime? Why don’t we hold people indefinitely? It’s been a Canadian tradition that there’s a process in place to which we adhere. Does the person charged with a crime seem to present a risk of repeating an offence? Carbert and Olienick hadn’t previously committed the offence(s) they were charged with. They didn’t have any criminal records for any violence. So, the likelihood of repetition of offence didn’t apply.
Another reason for denying bail is flight risk. But the Crown agreed neither of these men posed a flight risk. If you’re not clear about the identity of the person you’ve arrested, you can hold them in custody. But the Crown and the RCMP were certain of the identity of these men.
How about denying bail for evidence protection? If let go, was it possible the Crown or RCMP would lose evidence, and they needed to keep Carbert and Olienick in remand? No.
Were Carbert or Olienick considered a danger to the public? No. They had no past history of committing violent crimes, so in the case of the Coutts Two this was not a reason to deny bail.
The Crown insisted the pair be denied bail because their release would undermine confidence in the judicial system. Due to the seriousness of the offences the pair were charged with, releasing them would put the legal system into disrepute. But this is a circular argument. In authoritarian countries, police may arrest citizens on serious charges they’re not guilty of and leave them in prison indefinitely.
Granting Bail Goes Back to Magna Carta
Since the Magna Carta was signed in 1215, western judicial institutions have allowed those charged with a crime to be presumed innocent until proven guilty. With that provision comes the right to bail and a speedy trial. When citizens are accused of a crime and left to rot in prison without having their day in court, their spirits can be broken and persuaded to agree to plead guilty even when they are innocent.
Unindicted Co-conspirators Never Interviewed
During the trial, the Crown repeatedly named a list of unindicted co-conspirators. Each had a licence to carry a weapon in public for years. None of them were ever searched. None of them were ever interviewed. None of the alleged co-conspirators received any communication from the RCMP, or other authorities, about their possible connection to a conspiracy to murder police officers. However, the list of names provided for some legal theatre in the court added to the ominous scale of the supposed conspiracy to murder police officers.
Intelligence
Former career police officer Vincent Gircys had standing in the Justice Mosley decision. The judge ruled in January 2024 that the government’s invocation of the Emergencies Act in February 2022 to end the convoy protests was unconstitutional.
After the Coutts Two verdict, Gircys was concerned about the intelligence. There was a disconnect between the conspiracy charge and the evidence the Crown brought to trial. Gircys stated, “It’s really important to find where that disconnect is. Because of faulty intelligence? False intelligence? Fabricated intelligence? The evidence that they (RCMP) do have would all be logged, gathered, and time-lined. And that goes to what evidence was not gathered? … How could that information have been laid in the first place? How could the Crown have proceeded with this case to begin with?”
The Coutts Two were found not guilty of conspiracy to commit murder. But by the time they are sentenced on the other charges this week, they will have spent at least 925 days in custody. What does this mean for innocent until proven guilty?
Ray McGinnis is a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy. His forthcoming book is “Unjustified: The Emergencies Act and the Inquiry that Got It Wrong.”
P&H Milling Group has qualified for the Agri-Processing Investment Tax Credit program
Alberta’s food processing sector is the second-largest manufacturing industry in the province and the flour milling industry plays an important role within the sector, generating millions in annual economic impact and creating thousands of jobs. As Canada’s population continues to increase, demand for high-quality wheat flour products is expected to rise. With Alberta farmers growing about one-third of Canada’s wheat crops, the province is well-positioned to help meet this demand.
Alberta’s Agri-Processing Investment Tax Credit program is supporting this growing sector by helping to attract a new wheat flour milling business to Red Deer County. P&H Milling Group, a division of Parrish & Heimbecker, Limited, is constructing a $241-million facility in the hamlet of Springbrook to mill about 750 metric tonnes of wheat from western Canadian farmers into flour, every single day. The new facility will complement the company’s wheat and durum milling operation in Lethbridge.
“P&H Milling Group’s new flour mill project is proof our Agri-Processing Investment Tax Credit program is doing its job to attract large-scale investments in value-added agricultural manufacturing. With incentives like the ag tax credit, we’re providing the right conditions for processors to invest in Alberta, expand their business and help stimulate our economy.”
P&H Milling Group’s project is expected to create about 27 permanent and 200 temporary jobs. Byproducts from the milling process will be sold to the livestock feed industry across Canada to create products for cattle, poultry, swine, bison, goats and fish. The new facility will also have capacity to add two more flour mills as demand for product increases in the future.
“This new facility not only strengthens our position in the Canadian milling industry, but also boostsAlberta’s baking industry by supplying high-quality flour to a diverse range of customers. We are proud to contribute to the local economy and support the agricultural community by sourcing 230,000 metric tonnes of locally grown wheat each year.”
To be considered for the tax credit program, corporations must invest at least $10 million in a project to build or expand a value-added agri-processing facility in Alberta. The program offers a 12 per cent non-refundable tax credit based on eligible capital expenditures. Through this program, Alberta’s government has granted P&H Milling Group conditional approval for a tax credit estimated at $27.3 million.
“We are grateful P&H Milling Group chose to build here in Red Deer County. This partnership willbolster our local economy and showcase our prime centralized location in Alberta, an advantage that facilitates efficient operations and distribution.”
Quick facts
- In 2023, Alberta’s food processing sector generated $24.3 billion in sales, making it the province’s second-largest manufacturing industry, behind petroleum and coal.
- That same year, just over three million metric tonnes of milled wheat and more than 2.3 million metric tonnes of wheat flour was manufactured in Canada.
- Alberta’s milled wheat and meslin flour exports increased from $8.6 million in 2019 to $19.8 million in 2023, a 130.2 per cent increase.
- Demand for flour products rose in Alberta from 2019 to 2022, with retail sales increasing by 24 per cent during that period.
- Alberta’s flour milling industry generated about $840.7 million in economic impact and created more than 2,200 jobs on average between 2018 and 2021.
- Alberta farmers produced 9.3 million metric tonnes of wheat in 2023, representing 29.2 per cent of total Canadian production.
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