GDP growth at a standstill in Canada, oil and gas sector one major bright spot – Conference Board of Canada

Article submitted by the Conference Board of Canada

Muted Outlook for Canadian Economy

Consumer Spending Holding Strong Despite Confidence Being Weak

Despite the progress that has been made, inflation is still weighing down Canada’s economy according to new research from The Conference Board of Canada. In keeping with its previous forecast, real GDP growth will be at a virtual standstill for the rest 2023. For the year as a whole that means a 0.9 per cent gain, followed by only a modest 1.4 per cent improvement in 2024.

“Concerns about the U.S. financial system are unlikely to be mirrored in Canada given our country’s more concentrated banking system,” stated Ted Mallett, Director, Economic Forecasting at The Conference Board of Canada. “The indirect effects will be muted, and business investment was already expected to be weak in Canada so there is relatively little business lending to pull back.”

The global economy has slowed sharply over the past year as major central banks have increased interest rates, but despite the weak near-term growth anticipation, the chances of a severe global recession have receded. Inflation remains a threat, but two key developments provide reason for optimism. The first is the mild winter in Europe eased concerns of an energy crunch, with natural gas prices now lower than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The second is China’s removal of the zero-COVID policy, which saw their economy open at a much faster pace than anticipated.

The U.S. economy continues to defy expectations, with an expansion of 2.7 per cent in the final quarter of last year. Several factors should ensure that the coming slowdown in economic growth won’t be as severe as past slumps in economic activity. The major reason behind this view is the excess savings that households in America built up during the pandemic when the opportunity to spend was severely limited.

A slower U.S. economy will weigh on Canada’s trade results in the coming months, but the exports sector will still see a good showing in 2023, according to The Conference Board of Canada. Supply chain disturbances, which significantly restrained activity for many export sectors last year, have shown signs of easing over the past several months. A weak domestic economy, the depreciation of the loonie, and a steep decline in machinery and equipment investment will lead to muted activity for total real imports this year.

The oil and gas sector is a major bright spot in Canada thanks to strong corporate profits and ongoing projects in Western Canada and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Canada’s labour market has seen an impressive start to 2023, according to The Conference Board of Canada, which is being fuelled by an uptick in population growth. International migration to Canada has risen sharply in recent quarters, driven by record immigration targets and increased admissions of non-permanent residents, including temporary foreign workers.

Higher mortgage rates have slowed residential demand and unsurprisingly, the resale market has corrected with sales and prices decreasing. This downturn will frustrate some homeowners who bought at peak prices, while higher interest rates could severely impact some homeowners forced to renew mortgages at higher interest rates.

“While much of the COVID-19 support spending is now in the rear-view mirror, governments continue to have a heightened presence in the economy,” continued Mallett. “The pandemic brought about a new era of challenges to public finances, which were hardly looking rosy heading into the pandemic. The most notable question mark in today’s fiscal climate is how well governments can cope with new economic shocks.”

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Musk Slashes DOGE Savings Forecast By 85%

Published on April 11, 2025

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By Thomas English

Elon Musk announced Thursday that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is now targeting $150 billion in federal savings for fiscal year 2026 — dramatically scaling back earlier claims of slashing as much as $2 trillion.

Musk initially projected DOGE would deliver $2 trillion in savings by targeting government waste, fraud and abuse. That figure was halved to $1 trillion earlier this year, but Musk walked it back again at Thursday’s Cabinet meeting, saying the revised $150 billion projection will “result in better services for the American people” and ensure federal spending “in a way that is sensible and fair and good.”

“I’m excited to announce we anticipate saving in FY ’26 from a reduction of waste and fraud a reduction of $150 billion dollars,” Musk said. “And some of it is just absurd, like, people getting unemployment insurance who haven’t been born yet. I mean, I think anyone can appreciate — I mean, come on, that’s just crazy.”

The announcement marks the latest in a string of revised projections from Musk, who has become the face of President Donald Trump’s aggressive federal efficiency agenda.

“Your people are fantastic,” the president responded. “In fact, hopefully they’ll stay around for the long haul. We’d like to keep as many as we can. They’re great — smart, sharp, finding things that nobody would have thought of.”

Musk originally floated the $2 trillion figure during campaign appearances last fall.

“I think we could do at least $2 trillion,” Musk said at the Madison Square Garden campaign rally in November. “At the end of the day, you’re being taxed — all government spending is taxation … Your money is being wasted, and the Department of Government Efficiency is going to fix that.”

By January, he softened expectations to a “really quite achievable” $1 trillion target before downsizing that figure again this week.

“Our goal is to reduce the deficit by a trillion dollars,” Musk told Fox News’ Bret Baier “Looked at in total federal spending, to drop the federal spending from $7 trillion to $6 trillion by eliminating waste, fraud and abuse … Which seems really quite achievable.”

DOGE’s website, which tracks cost-saving initiatives and contract cancellations, currently calculates total federal savings at $150 billion.

2025 Federal Election

Taxpayers urge federal party leaders to drop home sale reporting to CRA

Published on April 11, 2025

Todayville

Party leaders must clarify position on home equity tax

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is calling on all party leaders to prove they’re against home equity taxes by pledging to immediately remove the Canada Revenue Agency reporting requirement on the sale of primary residences.

“Canadians rely on the sale of their homes to pay for their golden years,” said Carson Binda, CTF B.C. Director. “After the government spent hundreds of thousands of dollars flirting with home taxes, taxpayers need party leaders to prove they won’t tax our homes by removing the CRA reporting requirement.”

Right now, the profit you make from selling your home is exempt from the capital gains tax. However, in 2016, the federal government mandated that Canadians report the sale of their homes to the CRA, even though it’s tax exempt.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation also spent at least $450,000 to study and influence public opinion in favour of home equity taxes. The report recommended a home equity tax targeting the “housing wealth windfalls gained by many homeowners while they sleep and watch TV.”

“A home equity tax would hurt seniors saving for their golden years and make homes more expensive for younger generations,” Binda said. “If the federal government isn’t planning on imposing a home equity tax, then Canadians shouldn’t be forced to report the sale of their home to the CRA.”