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Alberta

25 facts about the Canadian oil and gas industry in 2023: Facts 11 to 15

Published

11 months ago

8 minute read

From the Canadian Energy Centre

One of the things that really makes us Albertans, and Canadians is what we do and how we do it.  It’s taking humanity a while to figure it out, but we seem to be grasping just how important access to energy is to our success.  This makes it important that we all know at least a little about the industry that drives Canadians and especially Albertans as we make our way in the world.

The Canadian Energy Centre has compiled a list of 25 (very, extremely) interesting facts about the oil and gas industry in Canada. Over the 5 days we will post all 25 amazing facts, 5 at a time. Here are facts 11 to 15. 

The Canadian Energy Centre’s 2023 reference guide to the latest research on Canada’s oil and gas industry

The following summary facts and data were drawn from 30 Fact Sheets and Research Briefs and various Research Snapshots that the Canadian Energy Centre released in 2023. For sources and methodology and for additional data and information, the original reports are available at the research portal on the Canadian Energy Centre website: canadianenergycentre.ca.

11. Breakeven costs in Canadian natural gas sector fifth lowest in the world

The Canadian natural gas sector had a weighted average breakeven gas price of US$2.31 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) in 2022, fifth lowest among major natural gas producing countries. Only in Saudi Arabia (US$1.09 per mcf), Iran (US$1.39 per mcf), Qatar (US$1.93 per mcf), and the United States (US$2.22 per mcf) was the breakeven gas price lower. The weighted average breakeven costs for Canada‘s natural gas sector in 2022 were lower than in Russia, Norway, Algeria, China, and Australia.

Source: Derived from Rystad Energy

12. Natural gas prices have skyrocketed

Natural gas prices have skyrocketed around the world in the last two years. In 2021, the price of natural gas in Asia was US$18.60 per million British thermal units (mmbtu) compared to US$4.40 per mmbtu in 2020—an increase of 323 per cent in just one year. By comparison, in 2021 natural gas sold for US$2.80 per mmbtu on Alberta’s AECO-C trading hub; in Asia it was US$15.88 per mmbtu more (or 564 per cent higher). Between 2019 and 2021, the price gap between Henry Hub in the US and AECO-C natural gas fluctuated from a high of 98 per cent in 2019 to a low of 26 per cent in 2020. In 2021, U.S. natural gas sold for US$3.84 per mmbtu, 40 per cent higher than the US$2.75 per mmbtu average price for AECO-C natural gas that year.

Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy and International Monetary Fund

13. Projected government revenues from the Canadian natural gas sector: over US$227 billion through 2050

Government revenues from the Canadian natural gas sector are projected to reach over US$227 billion through 2050. Under a Henry Hub price for natural gas of US$3.00 per thousand cubic feet (kcf), government revenues from the country’s natural gas sector are expected to rise from US$1.4 billion in 2023 to US$3.4 billion in 2050. Should the Henry Hub price reach US$4.00 per kcf, government revenues from the country’s natural gas sector would be projected to rise from US$2.0 billion in 2023 to US$10.0 billion in 2050.

Source: Derived from Rystad Energy

14. Small business plays a key role in the oil and gas sector

Small business plays a key job creation role in Canada’s economy. Statistics Canada defines small businesses as those with between one and 99 paid employees. Medium-size enterprises are those with 100 to 499 employees, while large enterprises have 500 or more employees. In 2022, of the oil and gas firms in Canada, 96.0 per cent were small, 3.5 per cent were medium-sized, and 0.6 per cent were large companies.

With the exception of construction, the oil and gas sector in Canada has a higher proportion of small businesses than other major industries. As of 2022, 96.0 per cent of all oil and gas energy firms had between 1 and 99 employees compared with 93.2 per cent in manufacturing, 89.6 per cent in utilities, and 99.0 per cent in the construction sector. The all-industry average is 98.0 per cent.

Source: Authors’ calculation based on Statistics Canada Table 33-10-0661-01

15. Canada’s oil and gas sector has an impact on key industries across the Canadian economy

In 2019, the activities of the Canadian oil and gas sector were indirectly responsible for significant portions of the GDP created by other key industries across Canada. The sector’s activities generated $100.9 million in GDP in the food and beverage merchant wholesalers industry that year and nearly $4.1 billion in GDP in architectural, engineering, and related services. In 2019, the top five industries whose GDP was most affected by their association with Canada’s oil and gas sector included:

  • Architectural, engineering, and related services: $4.1 billion
  • Machinery, equipment, and supplies merchant wholesalers: $3.4 billion
  • Banking and other depository credit intermediation: $2.1 billion
  • Computer systems design and related services: $1.7 billion
  • Electrical power generation, transmission, and distribution: $1.5 billion
Source: Statistics Canada

CEC Research Briefs

Canadian Energy Centre (CEC) Research Briefs are contextual explanations of data as they relate to Canadian energy. They are statistical analyses released periodically to provide context on energy issues for investors, policymakers, and the public. The source of profiled data depends on the specific issue. This research brief is a compilation of previous Fact Sheets and Research Briefs released by the centre in 2023. Sources can be accessed in the previously released reports. All percentages in this report are calculated from the original data, which can run to multiple decimal points. They are not calculated using the rounded figures that may appear in charts and in the text, which are more reader friendly. Thus, calculations made from the rounded figures (and not the more precise source data) will differ from the more statistically precise percentages we arrive at using the original data sources.

About the author

This CEC Research Brief was compiled by Ven Venkatachalam, Director of Research at the Canadian Energy Centre.

Acknowledgements

The author and the Canadian Energy Centre would like to thank and acknowledge the assistance of an anonymous reviewer for the review of this paper.

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Alberta’s fiscal update projects budget surplus, but fiscal fortunes could quickly turn

Alberta

Alberta’s fiscal update projects budget surplus, but fiscal fortunes could quickly turn

Published on November 21, 2024

By

From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

According to the recent mid-year update tabled Thursday, the Smith government projects a $4.6 billion surplus in 2024/25, up from the $2.9 billion surplus projected just a few months ago. Despite the good news, Premier Smith must reduce spending to avoid budget deficits.

The fiscal update projects resource revenue of $20.3 billion in 2024/25. Today’s relatively high—but very volatile—resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is helping finance today’s spending and maintain a balanced budget. But it will not last forever.

For perspective, in just the last decade the Alberta government’s annual resource revenue has been as low as $2.8 billion (2015/16) and as high as $25.2 billion (2022/23).

And while the resource revenue rollercoaster is currently in Alberta’s favor, Finance Minister Nate Horner acknowledges that “risks are on the rise” as oil prices have dropped considerably and forecasters are projecting downward pressure on prices—all of which impacts resource revenue.

In fact, the government’s own estimates show a $1 change in oil prices results in an estimated $630 million revenue swing. So while the Smith government plans to maintain a surplus in 2024/25, a small change in oil prices could quickly plunge Alberta back into deficit. Premier Smith has warned that her government may fall into a budget deficit this fiscal year.

This should come as no surprise. Alberta’s been on the resource revenue rollercoaster for decades. Successive governments have increased spending during the good times of high resource revenue, but failed to rein in spending when resource revenues fell.

Previous research has shown that, in Alberta, a $1 increase in resource revenue is associated with an estimated 56-cent increase in program spending the following fiscal year (on a per-person, inflation-adjusted basis). However, a decline in resource revenue is not similarly associated with a reduction in program spending. This pattern has led to historically high levels of government spending—and budget deficits—even in more recent years.

Consider this: If this fiscal year the Smith government received an average level of resource revenue (based on levels over the last 10 years), it would receive approximately $13,000 per Albertan. Yet the government plans to spend nearly $15,000 per Albertan this fiscal year (after adjusting for inflation). That’s a huge gap of roughly $2,000—and it means the government is continuing to take big risks with the provincial budget.

Of course, if the government falls back into deficit there are implications for everyday Albertans.

When the government runs a deficit, it accumulates debt, which Albertans must pay to service. In 2024/25, the government’s debt interest payments will cost each Albertan nearly $650. That’s largely because, despite running surpluses over the last few years, Albertans are still paying for debt accumulated during the most recent string of deficits from 2008/09 to 2020/21 (excluding 2014/15), which only ended when the government enjoyed an unexpected windfall in resource revenue in 2021/22.

According to Thursday’s mid-year fiscal update, Alberta’s finances continue to be at risk. To avoid deficits, the Smith government should meaningfully reduce spending so that it’s aligned with more reliable, stable levels of revenue.

Author:

Tegan Hill
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Alberta

Premier Smith says Auto Insurance reforms may still result in a publicly owned system

Published on November 21, 2024

By

Better, faster, more affordable auto insurance

Alberta’s government is introducing a new auto insurance system that will provide better and faster services to Albertans while reducing auto insurance premiums.

After hearing from more than 16,000 Albertans through an online survey about their priorities for auto insurance policies, Alberta’s government is introducing a new privately delivered, care-focused auto insurance system.

Right now, insurance in the province is not affordable or care focused. Despite high premiums, Albertans injured in collisions do not get the timely medical care and income support they need in a system that is complex to navigate. When fully implemented, Alberta’s new auto insurance system will deliver better and faster care for those involved in collisions, and Albertans will see cost savings up to $400 per year.

“Albertans have been clear they need an auto insurance system that provides better, faster care and is more affordable. When it’s implemented, our new privately delivered, care-centred insurance system will put the focus on Albertans’ recovery, providing more effective support and will deliver lower rates.”

Danielle Smith, Premier

“High auto insurance rates put strain on Albertans. By shifting to a system that offers improved benefits and support, we are providing better and faster care to Albertans, with lower costs.”

Nate Horner, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance

Albertans who suffer injuries due to a collision currently wait months for a simple claim to be resolved and can wait years for claims related to more serious and life-changing injuries to addressed. Additionally, the medical and financial benefits they receive often expire before they’re fully recovered.

Under the new system, Albertans who suffer catastrophic injuries will receive treatment and care for the rest of their lives. Those who sustain serious injuries will receive treatment until they are fully recovered. These changes mirror and build upon the Saskatchewan insurance model, where at-fault drivers can be sued for pain and suffering damages if they are convicted of a criminal offence, such as impaired driving or dangerous driving, or conviction of certain offenses under the Traffic Safety Act.

Work on this new auto insurance system will require legislation in the spring of 2025. In order to reconfigure auto insurance policies for 3.4 million Albertans, auto insurance companies need time to create and implement the new system. Alberta’s government expects the new system to be fully implemented by January 2027.

In the interim, starting in January 2025, the good driver rate cap will be adjusted to a 7.5% increase due to high legal costs, increasing vehicle damage repair costs and natural disaster costs. This protects good drivers from significant rate increases while ensuring that auto insurance providers remain financially viable in Alberta.

Albertans have been clear that they still want premiums to be based on risk. Bad drivers will continue to pay higher premiums than good drivers.

By providing significantly enhanced medical, rehabilitation and income support benefits, this system supports Albertans injured in collisions while reducing the impact of litigation costs on the amount that Albertans pay for their insurance.

“Keeping more money in Albertans’ pockets is one of the best ways to address the rising cost of living. This shift to a care-first automobile insurance system will do just that by helping lower premiums for people across the province.”

Nathan Neudorf, Minister of Affordability and Utilities

Quick facts

  • Alberta’s government commissioned two auto insurance reports, which showed that legal fees and litigation costs tied to the province’s current system significantly increase premiums.
  • A 2023 report by MNP shows
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