Business
2025 Energy Outlook: Steering Through Recovery and Policy Shifts
![](https://www.todayville.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/tvrd-2025-energy-blog-glj-image-2025-01-09.jpg)
From EnergyNow.ca
By Leonard Herchen & Yuchen Wang of GLJ
Their long-term real price forecast projects WTI at USD $74.00 per barrel and Henry Hub natural gas at USD $4.00 per MMBtu in 2025 dollars, signaling expectations of market stabilization and sustained global demand.
The energy markets in 2025 are undergoing transformative structural changes, highlighted by the operational launch of key infrastructure projects such as LNG Canada. This development significantly enhances Canada’s ability to meet rising global LNG demand while alleviating long-standing supply bottlenecks. At the same time, economic recovery across major markets remains uneven, shaping varied trends in energy demand and production activity.
Geopolitical dynamics are poised to redefine the competitive landscape, with the return of a Trump-led U.S. administration introducing potential shifts in trade policies, regulatory frameworks, and relationships with leading energy-producing nations. These changes, coupled with climate policy advancements and an accelerated global transition toward renewable energy, present additional complexities for the oil and gas sector.
Amid these uncertainties, GLJ’s analysts express confidence in the resilience of market fundamentals. Their long-term real price forecast projects WTI at USD $74.00 per barrel and Henry Hub natural gas at USD $4.00 per MMBtu in 2025 dollars, signaling expectations of market stabilization and sustained global demand.
Oil Prices
The oil market in 2025 reflects a delicate balance between supply and demand. During Q4 2024, WTI prices remained stable, fluctuating between $69 and $73 per barrel. This stability highlights the market’s resilience, even in the face of a slower global economic recovery and geopolitical challenges, including weaker demand in regions like China and increased production in North America.
Geopolitical risks remain pivotal, with ongoing tensions in the Middle East and sanctions on oil-exporting nations such as Iran and Venezuela threatening supply disruptions. While OPEC+ production cuts continue to provide vital support to prices by tightening global supply, these efforts are partially offset by the rising output of non-OPEC producers, notably in the U.S. and Canada.
The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) project is reshaping the pricing dynamics of WCS crude relative to WTI. By increasing export capacity to the West Coast, TMX has created conditions for a sustained narrowing of the WCS-WTI differential, moving away from seasonal fluctuations.
The return of a Trump-led U.S. administration introduces additional challenges. Deregulation policies aimed at boosting domestic oil production may exert downward pressure on prices, while potential trade tariffs and revised international agreements could further complicate global oil flows.
In this dynamic environment, GLJ forecasts WTI to average $71.25 per barrel and Brent $75.25 per barrel in 2025. These projections reflect robust long-term fundamentals, including sustained global demand and ongoing efforts to manage supply dynamics, emphasizing the market’s resilience despite near-term uncertainties.
Natural Gas Prices
In 2025, GLJ’s forecast suggests Henry Hub prices will average $3.20 per MMBtu, supported by steady domestic demand, seasonal winter peaks, and robust LNG exports. U.S. natural gas continues to play a critical role globally, ensuring supply security for key markets in Europe and Asia. The combination of growing industrial use, power generation demand, and stable production levels provides a solid foundation for price stability.
For the Canadian market, GLJ projects AECO natural gas prices to average $2.05 per MMBtu in 2025, representing a recovery from the lows of 2024. This improvement is attributed to easing regional oversupply and stabilizing demand. However, challenges persist, as production continues to outpace infrastructure expansion, prompting a downward adjustment of GLJ’s long-term AECO price forecast by $0.40 per MMBtu. The ramp-up of LNG Canada’s operations is expected to progressively enhance market dynamics and address these challenges.
On a global scale, LNG benchmarks such as NBP, TTF, and JKM have remained relatively stable, supported by high storage levels in Europe and balanced supply-demand conditions. European suppliers have effectively managed storage drawdowns, ensuring sufficient reserves for winter. Nevertheless, these benchmarks remain susceptible to market volatility driven by geopolitical uncertainties.
The CAD/USD Exchange Rate
The Canadian dollar experienced sharp depreciation during the last quarter of 2024, with the CAD/USD exchange rate falling below 0.70 USD. Economists have attributed this decline to the strength of the U.S. economy and its currency, the widening gap between the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s lending rates, as well as tariff threats and a political crisis in Ottawa. These factors have created a favorable environment for the U.S. dollar, putting downward pressure on the Canadian dollar.
Looking ahead to 2025, GLJ forecasts a CAD/USD exchange rate averaging 0.705 USD, underpinned by steady oil and gas revenues and enhanced export capacity from major projects such as LNG Canada and the TMX and eventual resolution of internal political issues and return to normalcy in US tariff policy.
Nevertheless, the outlook for the Canadian dollar remains uncertain, shaped by global economic recovery—particularly in China—and U.S. policy decisions under the Trump administration. While near-term challenges persist, Canada’s resource-driven economy and strategic energy export position provide a degree of resilience. In the absence of significant economic or geopolitical disruptions, GLJ projects the CAD/USD exchange rate to stabilize around 0.75 USD over the long term.
In 2025, GLJ expanded its database to include forecasts for Colombia Vasconia and Castilla Crude, as well as lithium prices, reflecting the increasing focus on diverse energy and resource markets. The addition of lithium forecasts aligns with the growing global emphasis on energy transition minerals critical for electric vehicles and battery storage solutions. A separate blog, set to be published next week on the GLJ website, will explore the lithium price forecast in greater depth, offering a detailed analysis and strategic implications for the energy sector.
GLJ’s forecast values for key benchmarks is as follows:
Business
Trump’s steel tariffs will hit BC hard
![](https://www.todayville.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/tvrd-trump-image-2025-02-11.jpg)
From Resource Works
BC is a huge source of mettalurgical coal, which is used to make steel.
US President Donald Trump’s announcement of 25 percent tariffs on imported steel will send shockwaves through many industries but one of the hardest hit will be British Columbia’s coal industry. As the largest exporter of metallurgical coal in Canada, B.C. relies heavily on global steel production and these tariffs will reduce demand, destabilize prices and disrupt supply chains.
Unlike thermal coal used to generate electricity, over 95 percent of coal mined in British Columbia is metallurgical coal or coking coal. This coal is used to produce coke, a carbon rich fuel used to remove oxygen from iron ore in blast furnaces. Steel production is a big part of global industrial activity and B.C.’s coal industry exists because of that demand.
According to provincial data coal is B.C.’s most valuable mined commodity, generating billions of dollars in revenue each year. B.C. coal is exported mainly to Asian markets like Japan, China, South Korea and India but the US steel industry has been a customer too. A reduction in US steel production due to tariffs could disrupt global steel trade flows and reduce demand for metallurgical coal from B.C. miners.
Trump’s latest 25 percent tariffs on all steel imports is a repeat of what happened in 2018 when similar tariffs were introduced. At that time the tariffs increased costs for US manufacturers and led to retaliatory tariffs from Canada and other trade partners. The economic impact was big – Canadian steel and aluminum producers lost business and retaliatory tariffs were imposed on a range of American goods. The 2018 tariffs also didn’t revitalize US steel production which was 1 percent lower in 2024 than 2017 despite those protectionist measures.
This time the tariffs will hit even harder. Unlike 2018 when Canada and Mexico were eventually exempted after negotiations, this time Trump has said his tariffs will apply to “everybody”. That means the Canadian steel industry will once again be caught in the crossfire and with it the metallurgical coal industry that supplies it.
If Trump’s steel tariffs prevent U.S. manufacturers from importing steel due to higher costs, steel production will decline. That will mean lower global demand for metallurgical coal including B.C.’s high grade supply. B.C. coal miners are already facing challenges from environmental policies, competition from other jurisdictions and regulatory delays. A downturn in demand from steel producers could be the trigger for more mine closures or reductions in production.
Plus these tariffs could start another trade war. Canada retaliated in 2018 with tariffs on U.S. goods like orange juice and whiskey and similar measures may follow this time. The uncertainty will delay investment decisions in Canada’s mining sector especially for new projects or expansions that rely on stable steel demand.
The long term viability of metallurgical coal is already in question as the steel industry looks towards greener production methods like hydrogen based steelmaking. Sweden has already developed facilities that don’t require coking coal and while the transition to such technologies will take decades the latest trade disruptions could accelerate that shift.
Trump’s tariffs are meant to protect U.S. steel makers but history shows they often have the opposite effect, increasing costs for American manufacturers and economic instability for key trading partners. For B.C.’s coal industry the combination of declining steel demand, disrupted supply chains and potential trade retaliation puts the sector in a tough spot.
British Columbia’s coal industry is deeply connected to global steel production making it very exposed to Trump’s latest tariffs. The move will reduce demand for metallurgical coal, disrupt export markets and add more financial stress to the province’s miners. Given Trump’s track record on trade B.C. should prepare for economic uncertainty and look at diversification strategies to mitigate the impact of another round of U.S. protectionism.
Business
FEMA Quietly Slid $59 Million Out The Door For Illegal Migrants To Put Their Feet Up At ‘Luxury Hotels’: Musk
![](https://www.todayville.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/tvrd-elon-musk-image-2025-02-11.jpeg)
From the Daily Caller News Foundation
By Jason Hopkins
“That money is meant for American disaster relief and instead is being spent on high end hotels for illegals!” he continued. “A clawback demand will be made today to recoup those funds.”
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) handed out $59 million to “luxury” hotels in New York City to house illegal migrants, Elon Musk said Monday.
Musk — who leads the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a temporary agency within the Trump administration tasked with weeding out frivolous spending by the federal government — said it was his DOGE team that made the discovery. The top White House official said the payment was in violation of President Donald Trump’s executive order and efforts would be made to recover the funds.
“The @DOGE team just discovered that FEMA sent $59M LAST WEEK to luxury hotels in New York City to house illegal migrants,” Musk posted on X. “Sending this money violated the law and is in gross insubordination to the President’s executive order.”
“That money is meant for American disaster relief and instead is being spent on high end hotels for illegals!” he continued. “A clawback demand will be made today to recoup those funds.”
The details around the alleged payout are not completely clear. FEMA did not immediately respond to a request for comment from the Daily Caller News Foundation, nor did a spokesperson for DOGE.
Former White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre in October denied the Biden administration was using FEMA funds for migrant accommodations, but in 2022 she suggested that the agency was assisting cities with the migrant crisis.
On his first day back in office, Trump signed an executive order that placed a temporary suspension on refugee resettlement into the United States. The president additionally noted how some major cities, like New York City and Chicago, have requested federal aid to help manage the massive influx of migrants entering their jurisdictions.
The president additionally signed an executive order placing a freeze on federal grants and loans as it conducts a review of the government’s spending, but that order has since been blocked by the courts.
However, New York City officials have a long history of placing illegal migrants into four-star hotels as they’ve struggled to find accommodations for the sheer number of asylum seekers flocking to the Big Apple.
New York City began housing migrants in the four-star Collective Paper Factory hotel around August 2023 after it was reorganized into a Department of Homeless Services emergency shelter. The five-story Collective Paper Factory itself is equipped with a restaurant, a gym, a bar, meeting rooms for guests and communal spaces.
The “chic” Square Hotel was converted into housing for migrants. Other “upscale” hotels in the Big Apple have also been converted into migrant housing in the past as city officials continue to deal with the migrant crisis, including The Row, which has also been described as a “four-star hotel.”
“A 4-star hotel is considered luxury lodging,” according to Kayak, a company that provides hotel booking services. “Guest rooms are noticeably more spacious, with top-quality linens, pillowtop mattresses, bathrobes, slippers, minibars, and upscale toiletries, plus equipped kitchens.”
NYC’s Department of Homeless Services was reportedly seeking a contract with local hotels to provide roughly 14,000 rooms in order to shelter migrants through 2025. City officials anticipated spending on migrants in need of housing for the current fiscal year and the past two years combined will exceed $2.3 billion, with a significant amount of these costs going toward hotel rent.
The Big Apple — a sanctuary city jurisdiction with strict laws restricting cooperation between local law enforcement and Immigration and Customs Enforcement — has become a major destination for the massive number of illegal migrants who’ve flocked into the United States. Roughly 230,000 migrants have arrived in NYC since the spring of 2022, according to data provided by the mayor’s office.
FEMA underwent an internal investigation in November after it was uncovered that a supervisor reportedly instructed disaster relief workers deployed in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton to avoid houses with Trump signs.
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