This article supplied by Troy Media.

By Lisa Baiton

Without decisive action, Canada risks missing out on a generational opportunity

For decades, Canada has relied almost exclusively on the United States to buy our natural gas exports. We are one of the world’s top natural gas exporters, selling nearly half of our total natural gas production each year, but about 99 percent of those exports go to a single customer south of
our border.

This trading relationship has been reliable, even though it has meant selling our natural gas at a lower price. But things are changing.

A good business has more than one customer, and over the past decade our biggest customer has become the largest Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exporter on the planet.

But Canada has taken a major step forward. LNG Canada’s first shipment to international markets marks a historic breakthrough—it’s the country’s largest private investment and puts Canada on the map as a global supplier of LNG.

This achievement deserves celebration. It demonstrates that Canada can build and deliver major energy infrastructure, unlocking economic opportunities for Indigenous Nations, British Columbians, and Canadians across the country. Just as the TransMountain pipeline expansion diversified our global customer base boosted our GDP, and enabled production growth, LNG exports can do for our natural gas sector. Natural gas royalties from LNG Canada alone are projected to contribute $23 billion to British Columbia’s government over its 40-year lifespan. Building a facility of similar scale to LNG Canada is estimated to create over 35,000 jobs during construction and add up to $4.5 billion to our national GDP annually. It’s a glimpse of what’s possible.

But we can’t stop here.

Without decisive action to scale up LNG, Canada risks missing out on a generational opportunity to secure economic sovereignty and meet rising global energy demand.

Global demand for LNG is surging. Shell forecasts a 60 per cent increase by 2040, driven by Asian economic growth, the decarbonization of heavy industry and transport, and new energy demands from artificial intelligence. Most G7 leaders have called for a full ban on Russian energy imports, and countries around the world are actively seeking secure, stable suppliers. Canada, as the fourth-largest oil producer and fifth-largest natural gas producer, is well-positioned to help fill that gap.

So why haven’t we? Despite our resource wealth, Canada lags on infrastructure and policy. While others sprint for global contracts, we’re stuck in red tape. Our permitting system is slow, uncertain, and hostile to investment. That must change.

The government’s two-year approval target is a step forward, as is the recent work our Prime Minister and Energy Minister Hodgson are doing to promote energy trade in Poland and Germany, including LNG. But deeper reforms are needed to create a clear, competitive, investor-friendly system that accelerates development.

We must also prioritize infrastructure investment. With strategic investments in pipelines, LNG terminals, and port capacity, we can connect our vast natural gas reserves to highdemand markets across Asia, Europe, and beyond.

Equally crucial is diversification. The U.S. will remain a vital customer, but relying on one market is no longer tenable. Japan, Europe, and emerging Asian economies are actively seeking partners—and Canada must be ready to meet them with reliable supplies and long-term contracts.

Indigenous participation will be key to success. Canada’s emerging LNG export industry is demonstrating what’s possible with the Haisla Nation’s Cedar LNG, the world’s first Indigenous majority-owned LNG project, along with Woodfibre LNG being advanced in partnership with the Squamish Nation, and Ksi Lisims LNG being co-developed with the Nisga’a Nation. Expanding the LNG sector offers an opportunity to advance reconciliation meaningfully, through ownership, jobs, and long-term prosperity.

This is a pivotal moment. The first phase of LNG Canada must be just the start. The world needs our energy. It’s time to deliver.

Lisa Baiton is the president and CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers

Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.

This article supplied by Troy Media.

By Rashid Husain Syed

OPEC+ output hike could sink prices, blow an even bigger hole in Alberta’s budget and drag Canada’s economy down with it

OPEC and its allies are flooding the global oil market again, betting that regaining lost market share is worth the risk of triggering a price collapse.

On Sept. 7, eight of its leading members agreed to boost production by 137,000 barrels per day beginning in October. That move, taken more than a year ahead of schedule, marks the start of a second major unwind of previous output cuts, even as warnings of a supply glut grow. OPEC+, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, coordinates oil production targets in an effort to influence global pricing.

This isn’t oil politics in a vacuum. It’s a direct blow to Alberta’s finances, and a growing threat to Canada’s economic stability.

Canada’s broader economy depends heavily on a strong oil and gas sector, but no province is more directly reliant on resource royalties than Alberta, where oil revenues fund everything from hospitals to schools.

The province is already forecasting a $6.5-billion deficit by spring. A further slide in oil prices would deepen that gap, threatening everything from vital programs to jobs. Every drop in the benchmark West Texas Intermediate price, currently averaging around US$64, is estimated to wipe out another $750 million in annual revenue.

When Alberta’s finances falter, the ripple effects spread across the country. Equalization transfers from Ottawa to have-not provinces decline. Private investment dries up. Energy-sector jobs vanish not just in Alberta, but in supplier and service industries nationwide. Even the Canadian dollar takes a hit, reflecting reduced confidence in one of the country’s key economic engines. When Alberta stumbles, Canada’s broader economic momentum slows with it.

The timing couldn’t be crueller. October marks the end of the summer driving season, typically a lull for fuel demand. Yet extra supply is about to hit a market already leaning bearish. Oil prices have dropped roughly 15 per cent this year; Brent crude is treading just above US$65, still well beneath April’s lows.

But OPEC+ isn’t alone in raising the taps. Non-OPEC producers in Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Norway are all increasing production. The International Energy Agency warns global supply could exceed demand by as much as 500,000 barrels per day.

The market is bracing for a sustained price war. Alberta is staring down the barrel.

OPEC+ claims it’s playing the long game to reclaim market share. But gambling on long-term gains at the cost of short-term pain is reckless, especially for Alberta. The province faces immediate financial consequences: revenue losses, tougher budget decisions and diminished policy flexibility.

To make matters worse, U.S. forecasts are underwhelming, with an unexpected 2.4-million-barrel build in inventories. U.S. production remains at record highs above 13.5 million barrels per day, and refinery margins are shrinking. The signal is clear: demand isn’t coming back fast enough to absorb growing supply.

OPEC+ may think it’s posturing strategically. But for Canada, starting with Alberta, the fallout is real and immediate. It’s not just a market turn. It’s a warning blast. And the consequences? Jobs lost, public services cut and fiscal strain for months ahead.

Canada can’t direct OPEC. But it can brace for the fallout—and plan accordingly.

Toronto-based Rashid Husain Syed is a highly regarded analyst specializing in energy and politics, particularly in the Middle East. In addition to his contributions to local and international newspapers, Rashid frequently lends his expertise as a speaker at global conferences. Organizations such as the Department of Energy in Washington and the International Energy Agency in Paris have sought his insights on global energy matters.

Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country